4 Reasons Why Arsenal Won't Finish Higher Than 3rd in the Premier League
Arsenal's Premier League aspirations received an early setback when they lost 2-0 to rivals Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.
Though the Gunners didn't play terribly in that match, the lack of overall quality compared to their hosts and predictable tactics cost them valuable points. Already, Arsene Wenger's side have fallen off the pace, and more results like this will make a climb to the table's summit untenable.
Although only seven games have been played, Arsenal currently languish in eighth, already nine points off Chelsea's pace. Manchester City are also beginning to find form, and both sides seem able to display quality and depth in spades down the line.
Wenger's task to break into the top two appears unworkable.
There are a number of reasons why the best Arsenal can hope for is an improvement of one league position on last season's attainment. They're wide-ranging, inherent in Arsenal's style of play and—crucially—can be rectified. Whether they can be rectified in time, however, is another manner.
In no particular order, here are the quartet of reasons why Arsenal's aspirations for this league campaign will be limited to a third-place finish at best.
Lack of Solidity and Depth in Defence
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Kicking us off is an issue that has plagued Arsenal for some time, one that could have been rectified in the transfer market this summer: the lack of solidity and depth in defence.
Solidity—in this case, referring to on-field performance as well as resilience to injuries—has always been a problem for Arsenal's defence. So too was depth, but that was less visible before club captain Thomas Vermaelen left for Catalonia this summer.
Despite the additions of Mathieu Debuchy and Calum Chambers, Vermaelen's move to Barcelona left Wenger with just six senior defenders in his squad. However, Debuchy could be out of action until 2015, via The Independent's Tom Sheen.
The department looks increasingly threadbare.
From a numbers standpoint, Chelsea and Manchester City have a clear advantage here. Chelsea have eight senior defenders at the club (though two of those, Nathan Ake and Andreas Christensen, have hardly been spotted in first-team action). With nine on the books, the Citizens are even better equipped.
Chelsea's eight (or six, depending on how you flip the pancake) senior defenders boast a depth of versatility among them that is difficult to replicate. With Cesar Azpilicueta, Filipe Luis and Branislav Ivanovic all capable of performing at multiple positions (per TransferMarkt.co.uk), Jose Mourinho's squad can cover each other should injury strike. The sheer number of options at Manuel Pellegrini's disposal at City make that versatility a luxury.
In terms of on-field performance, Wenger's defenders have coped with the mission of staying fit while still playing hard. Conceding 13 goals in 10 games, via WhoScored.com, isn't a bad return, but it can certainly be tightened up. Chelsea's 10 goals conceded is exceptional—City's nine is even better.
Does Anyone Know What Arsenal's Optimal Midfield Line-Up Is?
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Disclaimer: The titular midfield refers to the five men playing behind Danny Welbeck for Arsenal, whether that's in a 4-1-4-1 formation or a 4-2-3-1 formation. As such, expect Alexis Sanchez, Lukas Podolski, Joel Campbell and so on to be referred to as midfielders, even if they might be more commonly known as wingers.
To an area virtually devoid of depth to one where there are more options than Wenger knows what to do with: midfield.
Arsenal's midfield this season has been an unknown commodity. Wenger has tried a couple of different looks in tinkering with formations to try and utilise his brightest talents—specifically Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil.
The 4-2-3-1 was implemented with success against Galatasaray (B/R's own Sam Tighe had more). Despite that, Arsenal were not as competitive using that same formation in the 2-0 loss at Stamford Bridge.
Ozil flourished against Istanbul's finest as he and Welbeck linked up time and again, the German was majestic in his preferred No. 10 role. Yet, with Wenger testing out a 4-1-4-1 look, he has been shunted out to the left—with ineffective results (see the Everton game, via Squawka).
Alexis, on the other hand, has lined up primarily on that left side, and Wenger has reaped the benefits when the Chilean has featured on the flank. The former Barcelona man's heroic work ethic matches his pace and trickery beautifully when he features on the left wing. He's dangerous cutting inside too.
Alexis has earned his place on Arsenal's left, but as for the other four men, it's a mystery.
A number of positional dilemmas have been plaguing Wenger for weeks.
Ozil should start at No. 10 when he's on form—his best form, however, has been hard to come by on a regular basis. His main competitors have proven to be Santi Cazorla and Jack Wilshere, who are both effective in other areas.
The holding-midfield role is also a problem. Injury to Mikel Arteta has forced Mathieu Flamini into the spotlight, and the Frenchman has struggled often, including against Chelsea.
Wenger has plenty of other options to look to if his stars are struggling, with Lukas Podolski and Joel Campbell in contention, as well as Tomas Rosicky.
So why aren't they playing?
The League Cup encounter with Southampton was effectively a litmus test for those who hadn't seen much playing time. Predictably, Alexis flourished in that 2-1 defeat, while both Podolski and Campbell struggled. Rosicky, captain for the evening, didn't help his case either.
There is only really one more option for Wenger to try: give Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain a run of starts.
The England international is back at full fitness and has appeared raring to go and enthusiastic in his limited substitute appearances. With Ozil and Cazorla especially struggling to hold down a starting role, handing an opportunity to Oxlade-Chamberlain would bode well for Wenger.
It would improve his budding chemistry with Wilshere and Welbeck and provide even more pace to an attack that's already electric with Alexis in the fray.
What's more, that sort of pace can be the trademark in a tactical setup that makes opposition coaches plan their tactics around you—not the other way around. That fear factor, if you will, is the hallmark of a championship-winning team.
As it stands, if Arsenal can't work out how they're at their most effective, then their opposition will take advantage—as they have been doing.
Tactical Predictability
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There are aspects of Arsenal's tactical setup that have grown stale, and this is a big part of the conundrum of why Arsenal can't crack the top two. What's more, they were exposed most competently this season by—you guessed it—the top two teams in the league.
Wenger loves for his full-backs to press forward and assist his midfielders in the creation of chances in the final third. This leaves defensive vulnerability, and against Manchester City, this was ruthlessly exploited by Sergio Aguero (YouTube).
Perhaps most frustrating is Arsenal's notorious tendency to break with pace on the counter, only to slow the play to a tortoise's stroll. Though the idea is to find the perfect ball to split defences and give Danny Welbeck or Olivier Giroud an easy tap-in, it breaks down in practice.
In the time it takes for Arsenal to find that perfect ball, defenders have parked the bus, set up camp and drawn up the week's itinerary.
This style of play has been seen less in recent games, but its ineffectiveness is shocking—both in how Arsenal waste attacking opportunities and how long it has been allowed to continue.
This is even more difficult for Arsenal fans to deal with as they have the personnel suitable for that style of play at their disposal.
With Alexis Sanchez and Welbeck in the fray, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain on the periphery and Theo Walcott almost back from injury, they have pace and agility to spare.
The counter-attack should be where Arsenal thrive, not where they come unstuck. In fairness, the Galatasaray game is where this notion came alive—replicating that on a regular basis is the challenge now.
As long as these tactical proclivities remain, the Gunners will lack the ruthless cutting edge of their rivals that will allow them to claim vital points in the big games—just as Chelsea did on Sunday. They won't be helped if they can't work out who to play to achieve this, either.
Without that, a top-two finish is just not happening.
Do you see a theme emerging?
The Squad Is Strong but Not Strong Enough
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The final point is one that the rest of the argument has been leading up to in one way or another.
It's not something that can be avoided, either.
Over the last few years, Arsenal have, by and large, avoided investing heavily on their squad. This was mostly due to money being spent on paying off the debts accrued by financing the construction of the Emirates Stadium.
Although this move is viewed as being sound commercially, shareholder Alisher Usmanov argued that it was at the cost of silverware (and with it, a squad capable of winning silverware), via The Independent.
In the meantime, both Chelsea and Manchester City have invested in squads capable of challenging for every trophy available. The Blues have spent almost £340million since 2011, and the Citizens' transfer overheads are estimated at over £250million in that same period (via SoccerBase).
Arsenal have spent well over £200million themselves in that same space of time. The caveat here, though, is that many of those deals were financed by high-profile departures, such as Cesc Fabregas, Samir Nasri and Robin van Persie.
Those departures harmed Arsenal's aspirations at the time, and only now do Arsenal have the financial stability to spend relatively unhindered.
It was unrealistic and financially unsustainable for Arsenal to spend as flagrantly as their rivals have done over the past few years. In the commercial climate of today's football, the Gunners' stability came at the price of a squad that's not strong enough to compete with the very best right to the wire.
There are world-class players in Arsenal's ranks, that can't be denied.
Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil, the two highest-profile arrivals over the last two summers, are among the very best in the business at their positions when on form. Additionally, the British core that Arsenal find themselves with—players like Jack Wilshere, Aaron Ramsey, Theo Walcott, Danny Welbeck, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Co.—make the Gunners a particularly attractive club.
However, a British core alone won't win you the title, and neither will a couple of world-class players.
Chelsea and Manchester City possess phenomenal players at a host of positions, and they have them in spades. Just a scan through each side's squad will reveal that, and the gulf in quality between them and the rest of the league as well.
Unless Arsenal invest in strength in depth, be it in January or next summer, the Gunners will continue to be the proverbial footballing bridesmaid.
What do you make of Arsenal's title chances this season? Start the debate with a comment or head over to Twitter for a chat.
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