Mississippi Rebels vs. Texas A&M Aggies Betting Odds: Analysis and Prediction

The Rebels of Ole Miss just picked up their biggest win in decades, an upset of hated Alabama in Oxford. On the other end of the spectrum, the Aggies of Texas A&M just got roasted at Mississippi State. So two teams coming off very different outcomes meet when A&M, now just 3-7 against the spread over its last 10 games, runs with the Rebs Saturday night in College Station.

Point spread: Aggies opened as one-point favorites at Kyle Field, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 28.4-20.6 Aggies

Why the Mississippi Rebels can cover the spread

The Rebels are on a 6-0 ATS run after beating the Tide last week, 23-17, as five-point home dogs. Ole Miss trailed at the half, 14-3, but held Alabama to just a field goal in the second half, while getting a Bo Wallace touchdown pass—his third of the game—with three minutes to go for the victory, snapping a 10-game losing streak against the Tide.

So Ole Miss is tied for the lead in the SEC West at 2-0. The Rebels won't scare anybody on offense—although Wallace has thrown 14 touchdown passes already—but their defense ranks sixth in the nation overall and second in scoring, allowing just 10 points per game. Also, while the Rebs have lost the last two seasons to Texas A&M, they've covered the spread both games, as dogs of 13 and seven points.

Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread

The Aggies ran into a buzzsaw last week, losing at Mississippi State, 48-31. The Bulldogs could do little wrong, jumping out to a 28-7 lead and holding off A&M from there. But before that, the Aggies had won five in a row, with victories over South Carolina and Arkansas that gave them a 2-0 SEC start.

A&M still ranks third in the nation in both total offense (583 yards per game) and scoring (48 points per game), as new quarterback Kenny Hill (21 touchdown passes) continues to put his stamp on this team. Since joining the SEC the Aggies have beaten the Rebels twice, last year winning in Oxford, 41-38.

Smart Pick

This is the perfect setup for the "reversal of fortune" factor; Ole Miss just upset Alabama, while Texas A&M got blitzed on the road against Mississippi State. But the Aggies are perfectly capable of bouncing back, and the Rebs have yet to prove they're good enough to avoid the predictable letdown. So the pick here is with Texas A&M, given the short spread.

Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in five of Mississippi's last five games on the road
• Texas A&M is 6-1 SU in its last seven games

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.