Could 2010 Nationals Be 2006 Tigers Redux?

Hope springs eternal—except for the Washington Nationals, of course.

Over the past few weeks, it’s become almost impossible to find a story about the Nationals without it comparing them to the 1962 New York Mets, the poster boys for all-around baseball futility.

Their current pace will bring them within five or six games of the Mets’ 40-win season, but really, this isn’t a proper comparison. The Mets were a brand-new team stocked with players the other teams didn’t want, playing in a stadium no longer able to support major league baseball.

The Nationals, by comparison, are in their 40th year and have several high-caliber players currently on their roster. They play in a gleaming new stadium and have enough talent in their minor league system for at least a modicum of hope. And with a little bit of luck, that modicum could turn into a dollop.

No, they’re not the New York Mets. Perhaps a comparison with the 2003 Detroit Tigers would make more sense.

The 2002 Tigers had a terrible year, going 55-106, four games worse than the 2008 Nationals. The following season, the Tigers went with younger players and finished with the second-worst record of the modern era, 43-119.

In two full seasons, the Tigers won just 98 games. To match that record of futility, Washington would have to win just 13 games over the rest of the season.

Yeah, the Tigers were that bad.

The following year, however, the Tigers went 72-90 and in 2006, just three years after that 43-win fiasco, Detroit was in the World Series.

How did they do it?

First, they put a bunch of young pitchers into harm’s way and they got clobbered most every time they took the mound. In 2003, the Tigers started 20-year-old Jeremy Bonderman and it would be kind to say that he struggled, going 6-19, 5.56. Three years later, Bonderman went 14-8 with a 4.08 ERA.

Justin Verlander was taken with the second pick in the 2004 draft (thanks to that awful 2003 season) and as a rookie went 17-9 with a 3.63 in 2006. Nate Robertson was rescued off of the Florida Marlin’s scrapheap in 2003 and was thrown into the starting rotation because the Tigers didn’t have anyone else to pitch. He went 13-13 with a 3.84 for the pennant-winning Tigers.

Zach Miner was a prospect in the Atlanta Braves’ organization until the 2005 trade deadline, when he was shipped to the Tigers for Kyle Farnsworth. Minor went 7-6 with a 4.84 and filled the No. 5 slot in the rotation nicely in 2006.

The Tigers believed they had the nucleus of a young pitching staff, but they had no experienced starter to anchor the rotation. So they went onto the free agent market and signed 41-year-old Kenny Rogers to a three-year, $24 million contract.

Of course that was too much, but a team as bad as the Tigers had to overpay. Rogers did exactly what the Tigers wanted, going 17-8 with a 3.84, stopping losing streaks, and leading by example.

The Tigers, also in need of a closer, dipped into the free agent pool again and nabbed another aging pitcher, signing Todd Jones to three-year, $17 million deal. Again, they paid too much, but they had no choice.

They were, after all, the Detroit Tigers.

In 2006, “Pudge” Rodriguez was their catcher; he too was signed to an over-the-top contract the year after their disastrous 43-win season. Chris Shelton was drafted as a “Rule V” pick from the Pirates’ organization and played first.

Thirty-year-old Placido Polanco took over second after a minor trade with the Phillies. In 2004, the Tigers traded two minor leaguers to Seattle for short stop Carlos Guillen. Third baseman Brandon Inge was drafted by the Tigers in 1998, but his first solid year (27 homers, 83 RBI) came in 2006.

Craig Monroe, in left, was one of the few holdovers from the 2003 team. Center fielder Curtis Granderson was in his second season in center and Magglio Ordonez, who signed with the Tigers as a free agent in 2005, manned right.

Marcus Thames was another one of those minor free agent signings that no one noticed in 2004. Two years later, he hit 26 homers in 110 games at the Tigers’ designated hitter.

In 2004, after winning just 98 games in two seasons, the Tigers went young. They developed a plan of jettisoning their older players and trading for young, high-ceiling players who would one day lead them into the “Promised Land.”

But somewhere between 2003’s 43 wins and 2006’s World Series appearance, their plan met an untimely end. In just two seasons, the Tigers’ roster went from an average age of 25 to almost 29.

As they were trying to build for the future, a funny thing happened. Some of those junk-heap players started playing like major leaguers. The team then signed some quality free agents, partly to make the club better, but mostly to try to bring fans back to Comerica Park. (They were next-to-last in the American League in 2003 with 16,000 per game.)

But the main difference between 2003 and 2006 was the pitching staff. Except for Kenny Rogers, the starting rotation averaged 24 years of age and two years of starting experience. They all blossomed in 2006, and the team rode their arms into the playoffs.

Does any of this remind you of another team we know?

After a period of gathering young, high-end players (Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes), the Nationals are beginning to move them out and bring in major league-ready, solid-if-not-spectacular players such as Nyjer Morgan and Josh Willingham.

The Nationals are also bringing in bigger-name players (Adam Dunn, Scott Olsen) and their young pitchers are now just as apt to throw a shutout as they are to get shelled.

There are two differences between the teams that I can see.

First, the Tigers were quick to make changes, sign free agents, and discard underperforming players. The Nationals, on the other hand, seem reticent to make even the most obvious moves until they are left with no other choice.

Second, the Tigers were far more willing to sign free agents than the Nationals. It didn’t take them long to realize that their “building from within” policy wasn’t going to work by itself. During their darkest days, they overpaid for “Pudge” Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, Todd Jones, and Kenny Rogers. They overpaid because they had too.

The Nationals, on the other hand, think like a small-market team, signing players like Adam Dunn only when they can negotiate a below-market contract.

I don’t think there is much of a chance that the Nationals will follow the Tigers’ lead and sign three or four free agents over the winter. But here’s the thing: If they do, they can compete.

Five of the team’s eight position players, catcher Jesus Flores, third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, left fielder Adam Dunn, center fielder Nyger Morgan, and right fielder Josh Willingham, are contender-ready.

And the rotation looks a lot like the 2006 Tigers with John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann, Craig Stammen, and (when healthy) Scott Olsen. And Steven Strasburg would make this group that much better.

If the Nationals were to sign three free agent hitters and one veteran starter, the Nationals could look a great deal like the 2006 Tigers.

Will it happen?

I’d say it’s doubtful at this point. But consider if the Nationals moved Dunn to first, and then signed Matt Holliday (left), Orlando Hudson (second), and Jack Wilson (short), then added Brandon Webb, Rich Harden, Kevin Millwood, or Jason Marquis to the rotation.

That would be a contending team, no question.

Holliday, Hudson, Wilson, and Harden (I’m not suggesting these are the right players but rather players like them are needed) would likely cost the team $35 million a year, but remember, the Nationals are ridding themselves of $21 million in payroll when the contracts of Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns, Ronnie Belliard, and Dmitri Young end in October.

That means the Nationals could get those four players (or players like them) for only $14 million in new expenditures.

I understand I’m probably in Fantasy Land here regarding the Lerners' willingness to spend money. But my point is this: The Nationals, who are going to end 2009 with one of the very worst two-year records in the history of major league baseball, need to do something.

And to go from the worst team in baseball to a contender for a wild-card spot in less than a year? Well, that sure would shut up the ESPN talking heads, wouldn’t it?

Nats Notes was surprised to hear sort of-GM Mike Rizzo say that not only might Nick Johnson remain in D.C. through the summer, but that he could also be here next year.

I hope that's just postering. While Johnson's on-base percentage certainly helps the team, his defense isn't as flashy as it was in 2005, and the team needs power at first. A line-drive hitting first baseman was acceptable when we had Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes on the team, but no longer.