Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Steve Nash's 2014-15 Season
Injuries, age, contract structures and future free-agency plans have left the Los Angeles Lakers' 2014-15 campaign a mystery in the making, and Steve Nash's fate is perhaps the most confusing of their unsolved puzzles.
Pushing 41, the Hall of Fame-bound point guard is a lot of things. Durable isn't one of them.
Nash has appeared in just 65 games over the last two seasons. The days of him headlining championship contenders are over, replaced instead by a fading star barely hanging on as he prepares for life after basketball.
"I think this is my last season," he said of 2014-15 during an interview with Sport TV, per SB Nation. "But I still love to play, practice and work on my game. I'm going to spend hopefully many many years living this life without basketball. It'll be nice to play one more year."
Thoughts along those lines hint at submission. This season will be Nash's last, his swan song, the final farewell to a career so impressive, these last two years watched like a foreign film without subtitles.
Far removed from the player he once was, how will Nash's final season unfold? Will he bow out worse for wear, bringing a merciful end to a career that really ended years ago?
Or will his final ride be so impressive, so unbelievably familiar, that it won't be a goodbye at all?
Worst-Case Scenario
Picturing the worst-case scenario for Nash's 2014-15 crusade isn't especially difficult. Groundwork has been laid over the last two years.
Last season was particularly telling as a measuring stick. Nerve damage in his back coupled with hamstring issues limited Nash to just 15 games. And unlike 2012-13, when he played, Nash looked his age. His assist totals—5.7 in 20.9 minutes per game—remained respectable, but his shooting percentages plummeted while his mobility wavered.
Worst-case scenario has Nash's body and statistical output continuing their downward spiral.
Availability has already emerged as an issue in training camp. Nash rolled his left ankle in practice Saturday and was relegated to bystander duty once again, per the Los Angeles Times' Broderick Turner.
Afterward, the floor general sounded less than concerned while guaranteeing the latest hiccup wouldn't keep him out long. Or at all.
Most have long given up trying to downplay Nash's setbacks and hiccups and bumps, though. Rightfully so, too. Minor stumbling blocks have too often swelled into crushing blows. Not even Nash himself is above accepting them and curbing his expectations accordingly.
"I'm over pushing things and taking risk now," he said, via Turner. "I want to get through tomorrow."
Day-to-day survival is an issue for anyone Nash's age. Nothing spectacular is guaranteed. Not nearly two decades deep into an NBA career. There are too many variables to consider.
Simply taking the floor can be historic on its own. Only 18 times in league history has a player 40 or older played at least 25 games. Eleven players have accomplished the feat in total. Just five of them logged more than 20 minutes a night.
Following past trends would leave Nash to contribute in limited playing time. And while unimpressive, expecting him to register 20-minute stints for the entire year—or even half of it—can be seen as idealizing his return.
Barley or not playing at all is Nash's basement. This isn't the undervalued iron man of years past who, at the age of 37, missed only four games during the lockout-truncated 2011-12 crusade while averaging more than 30 minutes.
This is the injury-prone, career-weary silhouette of Nash who, on the brink of 41, might be lucky to play at all.
Best-Case Scenario
For someone obviously aware of how fluid and unpredictable his health is, Nash's self-built ceiling sits higher than most.
“My health, enjoyment and effectiveness,” Nash told the Los Angeles Daily News' Mark Medina of playing beyond 2014-15. “If I have a chance to play, it would have to be here. I’m not going to at this stage move somewhere else for a season and move my kids there.”
Entertaining the idea of soldiering on beyond this upcoming season is only noteworthy because of what it means.
Players are all about options. Nash doesn't have to declare his intent to retire just yet. There's no reason for him to reach that verdict now, weeks ahead of the season, months before he would play his last game. But considering it a possibility also suggests that it's plausible, that Nash could play well enough to prolong his career.
Figuring out what that would look like is tricky, though it all starts with season-long survival.
If he stays healthy, he'll play in more games; and if he plays in more games, there's a better chance he'll make substantial contributions to a rebuilding Lakers squad.
It was Nash who averaged 12.7 points and 6.7 assists per game while flirting with 50/40/90 shooting percentages in 2012-13. It's him who has more of those 50/40/90 seasons (four) than anyone else in NBA history. It's him who has piloted six of the 12 best offenses in league history.
And it's him who, with the exception of last season, has been effective when healthy in limited action.
Like Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding recently punctuated, Nash, health permitting, can still succeed in today's NBA:
"If his body allows, Nash still can be a magical player. In recent pickup games with Lakers teammates, Nash has been pain-free and tossing around that old fairy dust.
He has long since learned to thrive without physical advantages, and him simply doing what he does would change what everyone else does on the Lakers.
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In more ways than one, Nash has been preparing for this moment when age and logic are supposed to take precedence. His game isn't predicated on athleticism or explosion. Never has been.
Intellectual superiority kept Nash dominant past 30, beyond 35, as he approached 40. The ability to see the floor, interpret opposing defensive sets and break them down with the placement and timing of his passes rather than his individual speed preserved his playmaking value.
Accurate spot-up shooting helped him age. Nash doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective. Healthy and available, he can be of consistent value.
Best-case scenarios have him doing what he's always done—throwing passes and hitting threes—in smaller volume. In the event he's that same dime-dropping, shot-draining player next season, the Lakers' record, along with his individual stat line, will reflect said performance, turning Nash's immediate future into a question mark, not an expiring formality.
Making Sense of the Stakes
There isn't anything left for Nash to prove. Whether he ends next season on a high or low note, he's still on his way to the Hall of Fame.
Finishing out next year on a low note, having barely scraped by, all but ensures his departure. There's no reason to play on if he cannot actually play. The only way his career continues is if he surprises even himself, turning back the clock to a time when injuries didn't define him and his presence was a given.
And even then, even if Nash hits his ceiling, this isn't a fairy tale both reborn and destined to continue.
"It’s a nice thought, and if he was actually healthy enough to play more, there’s nobody who wouldn’t like to see Nash stick around," Sean Highkin wrote of Nash for NBC Sports. "But it’s tough to see that happening for a variety of reasons...He hasn’t definitively said it yet, but barring a miracle, it’s safe to assume that this is probably it for the future Hall of Famer."
Having placed an emphasis on remaining in Los Angeles if he continues playing, per Medina, Nash has only further set the stage for his retirement.
The Lakers aren't going to win him a ring this year or next. They'll have cap space to burn in free agency, but the chances of them assembling a contender before Kobe Bryant's contract expires in 2016 are slim.
That basically means Nash—assuming the Los Angeles Clippers don't come calling—would be returning on a discounted contract to a fringe playoff contender at best. That's not an opportunity. It's an empty endeavor.
Surpassing the reserved expectations set before him isn't an unconditional license to play on, free from injury and disappointment. It's the means to end his career on his own terms, or a chance to double down on his resurgence by attaching himself to a team that offers what he doesn't have: a championship.
Unless Nash softens to the idea of living outside Los Angeles, while simultaneously eluding Father Time, 2014-15 will be about saying goodbye his way rather than playing for a future that doesn't exist.
Accepting this year for what it is, whatever it is, and then making the decision that best serves his body and reputation is the dream—the absolute best of any and all best-case scenarios.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise cited.
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