College Football Week 7 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
It’s not an act you want to follow, but Week 7 has no choice but to roll up its sleeves and dive right in.
Following an upset-driven, chaos-infused weekend of college football, we are back at it once again, still processing what we observed. While it would be unreasonable to demand an encore of Week 6 magnitude, this stacked slate of games seems more than capable of following accordingly.
The AP Poll has a much different look and feel this week, which is understandable after 11 of the top 19 teams added a tally in the loss column. With the rankings rebooted, we’re continuing our weekly tradition of picking all games featuring Top 25 teams against the spread.
Given the magnificent carnage, last weekend’s 10-6-1 pick performance will suffice. We can do better, however, and that’s the plan this week. Of course it is.
All spreads are courtesy of Odds Shark unless noted otherwise.
No. 22 Georgia Tech vs. Duke
1 of 11
The Line: Georgia Tech (-3)
Without generating much buzz, Georgia Tech enters Week 7 unbeaten and in the AP Top 25. The Yellow Jackets won outright as a seven-and-a-half point underdog to Virginia Tech. They followed that up with an 11-point win over Miami after the bye.
As a result, the outlook on this team has drastically transformed. And yet, Paul Johnson’s team is only a field-goal favorite to Duke, which just enjoyed a bye of its own following an ugly 22-10 loss against the Hurricanes. Despite the Blue Devils’ most recent loss, however, this team has still done well against the spread over the past two seasons, winning 10 of the past 14 games against the number.
The Duke offense should bounce back in this spot, and the underdog is poised to derail Tech’s early perfect season.
The Pick: Duke (+3)
No. 13 Georgia at No. 23 Missouri
2 of 11
The Line: Georgia (-3)
Over the past two seasons, few teams have been more impressive against the spread than Missouri. The Tigers have covered in 15 of the past 19 games, which is second in the SEC only to Auburn. Coming off a bye and a thrilling come-from-behind win over South Carolina, Missouri draws its main competition—at least at the moment—in the wild and weird SEC East.
Georgia enters this week on the opposite end of the Vegas success spectrum, having covered only four times in the past 16 games. The Bulldogs won comfortably at Vanderbilt in Week 6, just not by the robust 33-point number.
As terrifying and potentially devastating as it might be to bet against Todd Gurley—arguably the best offensive player in the country—Missouri’s defensive line is active enough to cause issues for that Georgia offense. Plus, I still have concerns over that Bulldogs secondary, which is why I like the home dog.
The Pick: Missouri (+3)
No. 12 Oregon at No. 18 UCLA
3 of 11
The Line: UCLA (-2.5)
More intriguing than this point spread is a hypothetical over/under: how many sacks will be allowed in this game? It would likely start somewhere in the double digits—considering Brett Hundley hit this total himself last week—and escalate from there.
Both offensive lines have struggled mightily. And while the struggles with these teams can’t possibly be placed squarely on one unit, neither has been able to protect its future NFL quarterback. As a result, Oregon and UCLA have covered just two combined games this season.
With so much uncertainty hovering over both programs in their present form, it’s difficult to confidently jump to a side here. But with the best player in the country still on the Ducks’ sideline and the Bruins proving to be vulnerable at home, I’ll (reluctantly) back Oregon as a rare underdog.
The Pick: Oregon (+2.5)
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 11 Oklahoma vs. Texas
4 of 11
The Line: Oklahoma (-14)
This will forever be the Red River Shootout, no matter what the updated matchup logo with corresponding sponsor tells you. With that important podium session out of the way, welcome to one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports.
It doesn’t quite feel that way at the moment, not with Texas rebuilding and Oklahoma still licking its wounds after a loss to TCU. The game, however, still carries a fair amount of intrigue. And 2014—despite the lofty point spread—is no different.
Factoring in last weekend’s loss, the Sooners have still performed well against the spread, covering in seven of the past nine games. Texas, meanwhile, has covered just twice in the past seven matchups and once out of the past five years while playing Oklahoma. You might recall that lone cover, though. It came last season with a spread not all that different from this one.
While we learned Oklahoma is by no means a perfect product, I look for an offensive and defensive rebound.
The Pick: Oklahoma (-14)
No. 10 Arizona vs. USC
5 of 11
The Line: USC (-2.5)
The nation’s No. 10-ranked team is getting points at home against an unranked opponent. Behold the 2014 college football season, a fantastic, weird and chaotic expedition.
More significant than any matchup in this particular game is emotion. The Trojans just lost in heartbreaking fashion on to Arizona State on a last-second Hail Mary, while Arizona just won outright as more than a three-touchdown underdog on the road at Oregon. The results were vastly different, but both can be incredibly difficult to follow up.
While USC has struggled on the road of late—covering in just four of the last 15 trips—it should have an advantage on both lines of scrimmage on Saturday. Depth is still a concern, but talent is not. As a result, look for the Trojans to pull the non-upset victory.
The Pick: USC (-2.5)
No. 7 Alabama at Arkansas
6 of 11
The Line: Alabama (-10)
Dating back to last season, Alabama is just 4-3 in its past seven games. In that time, Nick Saban’s team has covered the spread just once. Arkansas, despite being winless in the SEC under head coach Bret Bielema, has covered in five of its past six games.
Emotion will again play a role. Alabama, having just lost on the road to Ole Miss, will have to hit the road again to play an opponent coming off a bye.
While there are reasons to be concerned with the state of the Alabama dynasty, this particular matchup is somewhat favorable for the Crimson Tide. Alabama is one of the few teams with the personnel to push back on the Hogs’ massive offensive line and dominant rushing attack, and it has the offensive weapons to attack a secondary ripe with questions.
The Pick: Alabama (-10)
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
7 of 11
The Line: North Carolina (+17)
Consider this the ultimate sandwich game for the Irish. Following an ugly (but enormously meaningful) come-from-behind win over Stanford in Week 6, Notre Dame gets North Carolina before a showdown with Florida State.
Before the season began, this matchup could by no means be viewed as one you could look beyond. But the Tar Heels’ season has been a colossal disappointment thus far, and at 2-3, they are still seeking their first victory against the spread.
Notre Dame has lost just once against the spread, although Brian Kelly’s team has not exactly bulldozed its last three opponents. Style points are very much overrated, but they matter in our spread-driven world. With the most critical game of the year on the horizon, North Carolina has the opportunity to keep this within two-and-a-half scores.
The Pick: North Carolina (+17)
No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 9 TCU
8 of 11
The Line: Baylor (-8)
As a slight underdog, TCU conquered Oklahoma at home in Week 6. Perhaps even more impressive is that the Horned Frogs were able to walk away victorious despite giving up a handful of big plays on defense and turning the ball over three times. As a result of this performance, TCU has yet to lose against the spread.
Baylor is in this same blemish-less boat when it comes to the spread, although the path to get there has been much different. Although the Bears struggled offensively against Texas last week, they still covered the 14-point spread thanks to a solid serving of defense. Yes, defense.
Emotionally, TCU has the difficult task of getting up for a game for the second week in a row. Making this more difficult is the fact that Baylor has covered 14 of the last 15 games at home in front of the home crowd. It’s a different team in a familiar environment, and I think that shows here.
The Pick: Baylor (-8)
No. 3 Ole Miss at No. 14 Texas A&M
9 of 11
The Line: Texas A&M (-2)
Coming off one of its biggest wins in program history, Ole Miss will hit the road to take on one of the nation’s most feared passing attacks. No, Texas A&M didn’t much look like it in Week 6 at Mississippi State, turning the ball over three times after an easy opening-drive score. But this unit is still incredibly dangerous.
Ole Miss showcased its own deadly passing attack against Alabama last weekend, and quarterback Bo Wallace was brilliant in the second half. The defense has also been fantastic, which is in large part why the Rebels have yet to lose against the spread this year.
Again, however, emotion could play a significant role—a theme throughout the week. And while Ole Miss is more than capable of winning this matchup, Texas A&M might take advantage of a chaotic, joyous week for the state of Mississippi.
The Pick: Texas A&M (-2)
No. 2 Auburn at No. 3 Mississippi State
10 of 11
The Line: Auburn (-3)
You could make the case for either Auburn or Mississippi State as the nation’s No. 1 team, and you wouldn’t be wrong. Given early returns, it would be difficult to argue against either.
From a Vegas standpoint, both programs have made backers quite a bit of money over the past two years. Auburn has covered in 14 of the last 16 games, headlined by its latest blowout victory over LSU. Mississippi State has covered in nine of its last 10 games and handled Texas A&M with ease as a three-point favorite in Week 6.
The quarterbacks are outstanding. The defenses are better than advertised. The running games are potent. While they operate with different styles, the strengths of each team are comparable. Auburn, however, feels like a more polished version, and it is already road-tested in 2014.
Mississippi State is very much alive, although the Tigers are the play.
The Pick: Auburn (-3)
Other Top 25 Games
11 of 11
No. 25 Stanford (-17.5) vs. Washington State
The Cardinal might be the nation’s most impressive two-loss team, although the red-zone woes and offensive struggles are troubling. That won’t be as big of an issue against Washington State, which has defensive and special teams holes to plug.
The Pick: Stanford (-17.5)
No. 19 East Carolina (-15) at South Florida
This line feels unusually low, especially when you consider South Florida’s offensive woes this year. But coming off a bye, the Bulls could take advantage of a sleepy opponent at home.
The Pick: South Florida (-15)
No. 16 Oklahoma State (-20.5) at Kansas
While Kansas is far from perfect, the spread feels just a bit too large, especially with the Jayhawks playing at home. Oklahoma State wins, but not by three touchdowns.
The Pick: Kansas (+20.5)
No. 8 Michigan State (-21) at Purdue
When dealt spreads of 20 points or higher this season, Michigan State is a perfect 3-0 against the spread. While home-field advantage should help Purdue, it likely won’t be enough.
The Pick: Michigan State (-21)
No. 1 Florida State (-24) at Syracuse
There’s a distinct possibility that Florida State could be looking ahead to Notre Dame. But with Syracuse’s offensive woes, the Seminoles are poised to cover this large spread regardless.
The Pick: Florida State (-24)
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
