The College Football Top 25 Rankings If Preseason Polls Did Not Exist
Saturday was one of the most tumultuous days in college football history.
Eleven ranked teams in the Associated Press Top 25 fell, including four of the top six. It marked only the second time since the poll began in 1936 that four of the top six lost in a regular-season week, the other time being November 1990.
The Top 25 polls looked significantly different when they came out Sunday afternoon, but they were still shaped by the preseason polls that began the season.
What would the Top 25 look like if there were no preseason polls? What would they look like if they came out for the first time Sunday afternoon?
Here’s a crack at what we think they’d look like.
25. Marshall
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Marshall is one of the most fun teams you’ve never seen play on national TV. The Thundering Herd are the clear class of Conference USA at 5-0 and stand an excellent shot at running the table with senior quarterback Rakeem Cato, who has thrown for 1,361 yards with 12 touchdowns against four interceptions.
Junior tailback Devon Johnson has 680 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging eight rushing yards per carry. The Herd average 299.6 rushing yards per game, 10th nationally, and 47.6 points per game, fourth.
It will not play a power-five team this season, meaning it has no chance at making the College Football Playoff, but is a contender for the group-of-five spot in the playoff-associated bowls if it can finish the season unbeaten with a C-USA title.
24. Clemson
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The Tigers might be the nation’s best 3-2 team. Their first loss came at Georgia, and while Clemson lost 45-21, it trailed only 24-21 in the fourth quarter. They also pushed Florida State into overtime before falling 23-17, with a pair of missed field goals, a shotgun snap over Deshaun Watson’s head in the FSU red zone and a fumble in the red zone with under two minutes to play separating them from a huge victory.
Clemson has looked like a very different team since true freshman Deshaun Watson took over as the starting quarterback, with a strong downfield passing game presence. Watson has thrown for 1,181 yards with 12 touchdowns against one interception. He set a Clemson record with six touchdowns in his first career start against North Carolina, and his 436 yards were just 19 yards short of CU’s single-game record.
The Tigers have little running game, but sophomore wideout Mike Williams is having a breakout season with 21 receptions for 520 yards and four scores.
The schedule is much easier the rest of the way, and Clemson should be 9-2 entering the season finale against South Carolina, where the focus will be on ending the five-game losing streak against the hated Gamecocks.
23. Arizona State
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The Sun Devils had one of the best highlights that might have slipped under your radar Saturday night. Clearly motivated by rival Arizona’s Hail Mary to beat Cal earlier this season, the Sun Devils stunned Southern California with a Hail Mary of their own, as Mike Bercovici (subbing for injured starter Taylor Kelly) threw a 46-yard game-winner on the final play for a 34-28 upset of the Trojans.
Bercovici threw for an incredible 510 yards and five touchdowns, proving a very capable backup. Junior tailback D.J. Foster has emerged as one of college football’s top running backs with 553 yards and five touchdowns.
A 62-27 loss to UCLA hurts the Sun Devils’ national stature, but with games against Stanford, Utah, Arizona and Notre Dame remaining on the schedule, this exciting offense still has a chance to make noise on the national scene and in the Pac-12 race.
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22. UCLA
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UCLA was considered a dark-horse College Football Playoff contender, but the Bruins have looked decidedly unimpressive thus far. They struggled with lesser competition in Virginia and Memphis and needed a late touchdown to squeak past Texas, 20-17. A 62-27 blowout of Arizona State raised hopes, but Saturday’s 30-28 home loss to Utah sent morale crashing back to earth.
Junior quarterback Brett Hundley has been as advertised, throwing for 1,310 yards with nine touchdowns against two interceptions. Paul Perkins has emerged as a No. 1 tailback, with 540 yards and three touchdowns.
But with games against Oregon, Arizona, Southern California and Stanford left on the schedule, making a playoff run will be an arduous task.
21. Nebraska
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Despite a hard-fought 27-22 loss at Michigan State, Nebraska appears to be much improved at 5-1 and a good bet to reach double-digit victories. The Cornhuskers average 303.5 rushing yards per game, No. 8 nationally, and have an impressive backfield led by senior tailback Ameer Abdullah.
Abdullah is a clear Heisman Trophy candidate with 878 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. Meanwhile, new starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. has also proven a capable leader for the offense.
The Huskers must travel to Wisconsin and Iowa in the final three weeks of the season, where the Big Ten West title will be decided. However, they appear to have the edge on representing the west in the league championship game.
20. Georgia Tech
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When this season began, Paul Johnson was decidedly on the hot seat in Atlanta. Following a 2010 ACC title (later vacated due to NCAA sanctions), Georgia Tech fell into a rut. Over the next four seasons, Tech was 28-25, 19-16 in ACC play, and Johnson was forced to refute rumors last season that he wanted to be bought out by school officials.
Those rumors look silly now. Tech is 5-0 following Saturday’s win over Miami and appears to be the class of a muddled ACC Coastal Division. Sophomore quarterback Justin Thomas has been a solid leader of the offense, throwing for 663 yards with seven touchdowns against one interception, while also leading the Yellow Jackets with 470 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
Tech’s schedule sets up well until the final two games, when it must face Clemson and in-state rival Georgia. Regardless, the Yellow Jackets appear to be on pace for a bounce-back season.
19. Utah
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Utah looks like a much better team. The Utes are a 28-27 loss to Washington State away from a 5-0 start, and surprised UCLA on Saturday night for the program’s biggest win since joining the Pac-12.
Starter Travis Wilson has thrown for seven touchdowns against no interceptions, but he was replaced after two series Saturday night by Kendal Thompson, who completed 10 of 13 passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. It’s unclear who’ll emerge as the starter the rest of the way.
Utah still must face Oregon, Stanford and Arizona, but has clearly taken a step forward in the Pac-12 race.
18. East Carolina
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East Carolina is the best story in the group of five. The Pirates are spending their first year in the AAC, but showed they could compete in the ACC Coastal by surprising Virginia Tech and North Carolina in consecutive weeks. ECU hung 70 points and 789 yards of total offense on the Tar Heels, both UNC program single-game worsts.
Ruffin McNeill and offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley boast a wide-open offense led by senior quarterback Shane Carden, who has 1,879 passing yards with 15 touchdowns against three interceptions. Wideouts Justin Harden and Isaiah Jones are a prolific pass-catching duo, with both already over 450 yards receiving on the season.
ECU is clearly the class of the AAC, and while it has no shot at the College Football Playoff, if it keeps this up, it’ll be the clear favorite for the group-of-five access spot in the playoff-associated bowls.
17. Kansas State
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The Wildcats finished last season as one of the nation’s hottest teams, winning six of their final seven games. They’ve built on that success thus far with a strong 4-1 start, the only blemish a hard-fought 20-14 home loss to Auburn.
Senior quarterback Jake Waters is a talented threat who can hurt defenses in a number of ways. He’s thrown for 1,206 yards with seven touchdowns against three interceptions and is also the Wildcats’ leading rusher with 320 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
The Big 12 schedule gets tougher from here with games against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor still remaining, but the Wildcats are a tough, gritty team in Bill Snyder’s mold, and won’t be an easy out for anyone left on their slate.
16. Oklahoma State
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This was expected to be something of a rebuilding year for Oklahoma State, but Mike Gundy’s Cowboys have looked ahead of schedule so far. They pushed defending national champion Florida State in the opener before falling 37-31 and have thrived offensively despite losing starting quarterback J.W. Walsh to injury.
Backup Daxx Garman has thrown for 1,200 yards with nine touchdowns against four interceptions, and he spreads the ball around. Five receivers have at least 200 yards receiving so far.
With games left against TCU, Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma, this young group will have a voice in the Big 12 race. It might not be a College Football Playoff contender, but it can make some noise along the way.
15. Ohio State
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It wasn’t an easy beginning to the season for Ohio State. The Buckeyes lost Heisman Trophy candidate Braxton Miller in August to shoulder surgery, forcing unproven freshman J.T. Barrett into the mix as the starting quarterback. Barrett struggled in a 35-21 home loss to Virginia Tech, the program’s first defeat in Columbus since 2011, but has shown steady improvement since.
He has 1,354 yards passing with 17 touchdowns against five interceptions and has completed 66.2 percent of his passes while adding 276 rushing yards and two scores. Ezekiel Elliott is no Carlos Hyde, but has emerged as the No. 1 tailback with 462 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
The loss to Virginia Tech hurts badly, as the Hokies followed it up with losses to East Carolina and Georgia Tech. But a Big Ten title is well within the Buckeyes’ wheelhouse, with only a trip to Michigan State remaining on the schedule as a truly challenging game. That game Nov. 8 should decide the Big Ten East winner and give the victor a boost toward a College Football Playoff bid.
14. Georgia
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Georgia looks like the clear class of a down SEC East. The Bulldogs boast one of the nation’s best rushing attacks, averaging 288.8 yards per game, ranking No. 13 nationally. Junior Todd Gurley leads a deep backfield. He already has 773 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging an eye-raising 8.2 yards per carry.
Georgia still must face Missouri, Auburn and a resurgent Georgia Tech team, and owns a solid season-opening win over Clemson, but suffers by playing in the SEC East, the weaker of the league’s two divisions. Plus, a 38-35 loss at South Carolina looks worse by the week, thanks to the Gamecocks’ struggles. That said, if the Bulldogs take care of their business, they’re very much a College Football Playoff contender.
13. Texas A&M
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The Aggies were the first real victims of what will be a vicious SEC West slate, dropping a 48-31 decision at Mississippi State that really wasn’t that close: State led by 31 points late in the fourth quarter before Texas A&M scored a pair of late cosmetic scores.
Sophomore quarterback Kenny Hill was one of the biggest stars of the first month, setting a program record for passing yards in his starting debut at South Carolina, a 52-28 rout that ended the Gamecocks’ 18-game home winning streak. He threw for 365 yards and four scores Saturday, but also had three crucial interceptions. Still, he has thrown for 2,110 yards with 21 touchdowns against five interceptions on the season.
The Aggies have a talented, deep receiving corps and, despite Saturday’s setback, boast an improving defense. The schedule is not forgiving with games against Ole Miss, Alabama and Auburn remaining, but if some of the defensive issues can be solved, this team can still make a run at the College Football Playoff.
12. Oklahoma
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Entering this season, the Sooners were expected to build on their finish to last season, which included a mashing of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Saturday’s 37-33 loss to TCU might serve as a wake-up call that the job isn’t completely finished. Sophomore quarterback Trevor Knight threw for 309 yards, but completed only 14 of 35 passes and was intercepted twice, including one that was run back 41 yards for the eventual game-winning score.
Tailback Samaje Perine is an impressive runner, having run for 506 yards and eight scores, and OU also boasts a hard-hitting, aggressive defense with a great linebacker corps and defensive line. The Sooners have plenty of chances to get back in the College Football Playoff chase with games against Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma State remaining.
11. Oregon
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The Ducks were considered to be a prime College Football Playoff contender, but that road got a little tougher following a 31-24 home loss to Arizona. The Wildcats consistently harassed star quarterback Marcus Mariota and exposed weaknesses in Oregon’s offensive line.
Still, this is a very talented team. Mariota is one of college football’s most electric players, and has thrown 15 touchdowns against no interceptions while throwing for 1,411 yards. He is also mobile and can move on the ground, with 215 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
Oregon also has a very deep backfield with the three-headed monster of Royce Freeman, Thomas Tyner and Byron Marshall, and one of the game’s top cornerbacks in senior Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. The Ducks travel to UCLA next week and also have a key game with Stanford remaining on the schedule, but should be able to win the Pac-12 North and have a shot at revenge against the Wildcats in a potential league title game, which would be a lot of fun.
10. TCU
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Following last season’s 4-8 disaster, veteran TCU coach Gary Patterson junked his offense and adopted a fast-paced system, installing versatile senior Trevone Boykin as his quarterback. Smart move.
After Saturday’s 37-33 upset of Oklahoma (the biggest win in the Horned Frogs’ brief Big 12 tenure), TCU has matched 2013’s win total and appears poised for much more.
Boykin has thrown for 1,176 yards with 10 touchdowns against two interceptions and is also TCU’s leading rusher with 260 yards and three touchdowns.
The road to the top of the Big 12 won’t be easy. TCU travels to Baylor this week and still has games left with Oklahoma State and Kansas State left on the schedule. But it’s clearly a comeback year in Dallas for Patterson and the Horned Frogs.
9. Arizona
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Rich Rodriguez’s rebuilding project in the desert appears to have taken a major step forward in its third season. The Wildcats are 5-0 following Thursday’s stunning win at Oregon, the program’s second consecutive victory over the Ducks.
All this has happened despite starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback in Anu Solomon. Solomon has looked like one of the nation’s top freshmen. He has thrown for 1,741 yards with 14 touchdowns against four interceptions and shown the mettle of a veteran. He led Arizona to 36 fourth-quarter points and threw a Hail Mary touchdown on the game’s final play for a wild 49-45 victory over Cal. Freshman tailback Nick Wilson has also been impressive, running for 574 yards and six touchdowns.
Arizona still has Southern Cal, UCLA, Arizona State and Utah left on its schedule, so keeping this ranking won’t be easy. But Michigan has to wonder why it let Rodriguez get out of its clutches.
8. Alabama
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Saturday’s loss at Ole Miss was highly disappointing for Alabama. The Crimson Tide were held under 20 points for the first time since Nov. 5, 2011, when they suffered a 9-6 overtime defeat to LSU. Up until their trip to Oxford, the Crimson Tide hadn’t looked perfect, but still looked like one of the nation’s best teams. They have offensive balance, ranking No. 22 nationally in rushing yards and No. 24 in passing yards.
The Tide’s defense has been solid as well, allowing just 15.8 points per game, No. 12 nationally. Senior Blake Sims has emerged as the clear starting quarterback. He has thrown for 1,319 yards with eight touchdowns against three interceptions while completing 70.3 percent of his passes. And while tailback Kenyan Drake’s broken leg will hurt backfield depth, T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry are one of the nation’s top 1-2 punches, combining for 764 yards and four touchdowns so far. Junior wideout Amari Cooper is one of college football’s most prolific pass-catchers with 52 receptions for 746 yards and five scores.
Alabama is not out of the College Football Playoff chase by any means. The Tide face off with Texas A&M in two weeks, and a three-game homestand to end the season will be crucial: Mississippi State visits, followed by FCS foe Western Carolina before Auburn visits for the Iron Bowl.
7. Michigan State
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Coming off a breakthrough 13-1 season under coach Mark Dantonio, Michigan State again looks like the clear class of the Big Ten. The Spartans have perhaps the nation’s best loss in a 46-27 defeat at Oregon, a game they led deep into the third quarter, and have a balanced offense that so far has carried a young but improving defense.
Quarterback Connor Cook has an excellent arm and has thrown for 10 touchdowns against three interceptions with 1,071 yards passing. Tailback Jeremy Langford is a bruising presence with 451 yards and five touchdowns so far.
A showdown against Ohio State on Nov. 8 is the biggest game left on the schedule. It might be difficult for the Spartans to make a case for the College Football Playoff even if they win out, however, given the Big Ten’s perceived overall weakness.
6. Notre Dame
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Following last season’s 9-4 record, a downturn from 2012’s 12-1 national runner-up finish, Notre Dame is trending upward again this fall. A big reason why? The return of quarterback Everett Golson after being suspended for the 2013 season for academic reasons. Golson has 13 touchdowns against three interceptions with 1,383 yards while completing 64 percent of his passes.
He was the difference Saturday, throwing a 23-yard touchdown on 4th-and-11 with 1:01 to play, lifting the Fighting Irish to a 17-14 win over Stanford. It was their most impressive win of the season to date.
The defense has also been impressive under new defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder, allowing 12 points per game, which ranks third nationally. With games against Florida State, Arizona State and Southern Cal remaining, the schedule will get tougher, but Notre Dame has again established itself as a College Football Playoff contender.
5. Baylor
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So far, so good for the defending Big 12 champions. The Bears have yet to play a ranked team but have taken care of business, winning every game by at least 21 points, including Saturday’s 28-7 win over Texas.
Baylor has a balanced team with excellent offense and defense. The Bears lead the nation with 51 points per game and are allowing just 12.4 points per game, fifth nationally. Senior quarterback Bryce Petty has thrown for 1,023 yards with nine touchdowns against just one interception, while tailbacks Shock Linwood and Johnny Jefferson are a talented backfield duo.
Baylor will be tested soon, with this week’s visit from TCU followed by a trip to West Virginia. They also face Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State in November, with the Oklahoma game on the road. Right now, Baylor looks like the class of the Big 12 and a strong College Football Playoff contender.
4. Ole Miss
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The Rebels are the other half of the Magnolia State’s surprising college gridiron emergence this fall. Senior quarterback Bo Wallace and a nasty defense helped Ole Miss rally from a 14-3 halftime deficit to stun Alabama 23-17 in Oxford, the program’s biggest win under Hugh Freeze and one of the biggest wins in program history.
Wallace is up and down, but is the SEC’s most experienced quarterback. He has 14 touchdowns against six interceptions while throwing for 1,522 yards and completing 68.6 percent of his passes. He has a very talented group of receivers to throw to led by Laquon Treadwell (25 receptions, 362 yards, five scores). The Rebels’ defense allows just 10.2 points per game, No. 2 nationally, and held Alabama under 20 points for the first time since November 2011.
Ole Miss still has Auburn, Texas A&M and Mississippi State left on its schedule but it will be a factor in the super-tough SEC West.
3. Mississippi State
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The Bulldogs have been the breakout story of the season to date. A team that needed back-to-back overtime wins just to qualify for a bowl last season is 5-0 following Saturday’s 48-31 win over Texas A&M, with a huge showdown on deck against Auburn in Starkville this week.
Junior quarterback Dak Prescott is a legit Heisman Trophy contender. He has thrown for 1,223 yards with 13 touchdowns against two interceptions and has run for 455 yards with six touchdowns as an impressive dual threat.
Dan Mullen’s bunch has back-to-back wins over teams that were ranked in the Top 10 in LSU and Texas A&M. It was the program’s first win over LSU since 1999 and MSU’s first win in Baton Rouge since 1991. Games against Auburn, Alabama and Ole Miss remain, but MSU is clearly a major contender in the nation’s toughest division. In fact, Yahoo's Pat Forde has Ole Miss, MSU and Auburn in his current four-team College Football Playoff bracket.
2. Auburn
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Last season’s national runner-up has picked up right where it left off. Auburn is 5-0 following Saturday’s 41-7 demolition of LSU that marked the fourth time in five games that AU has scored at least 40 points (Auburn averages 42 points per game, No. 15 nationally). The Tigers also appear to have improved defensively, allowing 14.4 points per game, No. 9 nationally.
Entering this week’s showdown at Mississippi State, Auburn has a pair of quality wins at Kansas State and over LSU. Quarterback Nick Marshall is a dangerous run-pass threat, and he has a great target in junior college transfer D’haquille Williams, who has 25 receptions for 385 yards and three touchdowns. Cameron Artis-Payne has 594 rushing yards and five touchdowns and has proven a capable replacement for Heisman Trophy finalist Tre Mason.
Auburn must travel to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama (and host Texas A&M) but the Tigers should be a strong factor in the ultra-tough SEC West.
1. Florida State
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The defending BCS national champions have had a rocky first month of the season, but they’ve answered every challenge thrown at them, most notably Heisman Trophy-winning sophomore quarterback Jameis Winston missing the Clemson game after being suspended for shouting a vulgar phrase on the Florida State campus.
They were pushed to overtime by Clemson and pushed past Oklahoma State 37-31 in the season opener, and overcame an early 17-point deficit for a 56-41 win at Florida State.
While the Seminoles’ defense has taken a step back from a year ago (they’re allowing 20.8 points per game) and Winston has eight touchdowns against five interceptions, they still have an explosive offense with senior receiver Rashad Greene, one of the nation’s top wideouts. Until proven otherwise, Florida State is the nation’s top team.
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