Cincinnati vs. Miami: Complete Game Preview
The Cincinnati Bearcats and Miami Hurricanes both attempt to rebound from embarrassing losses in a nonconference matchup on Saturday, Oct. 11.
A rib injury forced Gunner Kiel out of the 27-point blowout against Memphis, which racked up 610 offensive yards on the Bearcats.
One week after earning an important win over Coastal Division foe Duke, Miami collapsed during the second half of a 27-17 loss to Georgia Tech.
This is the 12th meeting between the two programs and first since 1998. The Hurricanes hold a 10-1 series advantage over Cincinnati, including a 5-0 mark at home. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET and can be seen on ESPN3.
Cincinnati Keys to Victory
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Effective Quarterback Play
According to Cincinnati athletics staff member Tom Gelehrter, head coach Tommy Tuberville is preparing for Kiel being unavailable. Fortunately for the Bearcats, their backup quarterback is hardly a typical backup.
Though Munchie Legaux is certainly far from the caliber Kiel has proven to be, Cincinnati can still use an experienced player under center against a downtrodden Miami defense.
Legaux started more than a handful of games before an absolutely horrific injury ended his 2013 campaign. The senior has amassed 2,915 yards and 20 touchdowns on 415 career attempts, plus 652 yards and seven scores on the ground.
The Bearcats must be prepared for a shootout, and Legaux will likely be tasked with matching the 'Canes talented offense.
Dominate Third Down
Both offensively and defensively, Miami has been absolutely terrible on third down. Consequently, there are few reasons Cincinnati couldn't steal a victory at Sun Life Stadium if it capitalizes on the Hurricanes' biggest weakness.
A Kiel-less attack would severely hamper the team, but Cincy still has enough playmakers to frustrate Miami and sustain some drives.
The problem, however, is that the Bearcats defense has posted the nation's worst mark on that critical snap, allowing opponents to move the chains 55.2 percent of the time.
Keeping the 'Canes offense on the sideline and their defense between the numbers is a crucial part of the Bearcats pulling an upset.
Miami Keys to Victory
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Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
Since the Bearcats defense is so vulnerable, Miami offensive coordinator James Coley needs to keep Brad Kaaya and Co. moving quickly.
Memphis gashed Cincinnati both on the ground and through the air, allowing a 170-yard performance by running back Sam Craft and a catch of 20-plus yards to five Tigers receivers.
Saturday, the 'Canes will boast Duke Johnson, Phillip Dorsett, Braxton Berrios, Clive Walford, Malcolm Lewis, Herb Waters and Stacy Coley, each of whom are capable of picking up long gains.
The more chances they get to make an explosive play, the safer bet Miami will shred its opposition.
Get off the Field Defensively
Apologies in advance for spinning a broken record, but this Hurricanes squad lives and dies by their success—or lack thereof—defending late-down situations.
During three losses, opponents have converted 27-of-43 third or fourth downs on the Miami defense, whereas that number plummets to 15-of-59 in three wins.
While time of possession tends to be an overrated stat, Georgia Tech holding the ball for more than 40 minutes was a major factor in deciding the recent conference bout.
The Hurricanes offense could flat out destroy Cincy, but the unit can't do anything when it's not on the field.
Cincinnati Players to Watch
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Chris Moore and Mekale McKay, Wide Receivers
When the Bearcats fell to Ohio State, junior wideout Chris Moore only caught three passes. However, each one resulted in a touchdown, and the plays combined to cover 221 yards.
Long story short, Moore really didn't have an unproductive outing. He leads Cincinnati with 340 yards and five touchdowns and paced the Bearcats with five receptions last weekend.
Moore's partner-in-crime, Mekale McKay, has also been terrific. Another junior, McKay has tallied 15 receptions for 315 yards and four scores, including an 80-yard strike against Memphis.
The duo will constantly test the Miami secondary, a unit that has been roasted on several occasions.
Simply, the Entire Defense
The Bearcats are not a good defensive team. They are not a mediocre defensive squad. They are not a below-average defensive unit. Essentially, they cannot stop anyone.
Warning: NSFW. Turn back now. It's about to get ugly.
Cincinnati has allowed 37.3 points, 561.8 yards and 30.3 first downs per game, stats that rank 114th, 127th and 128th, respectively, out of 128 FBS programs.
Memphis—which isn't exactly known as an offensive powerhouse—just hung 41 points and 600-plus yards on the Bearcats. What's more, Ohio State racked up 50 points, 700-plus yards and 45 first downs.
I warned you.
Should Kiel be officially declared out, Cincinnati's defense must somehow step up to contain a Miami team. For that to happen, the entire unit must play its best game of the season.
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Miami Players to Watch
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Ereck Flowers, Left Tackle and Whoever Starts on the Right
Collectively, it's clear the Bearcats will be hard-pressed to keep Miami off the scoreboard. Individually, however, Cincinnati has a pair of talented defensive ends primed to contribute off the edges.
Left tackle Ereck Flowers hasn't had a terrific season, but he remains the team's best lineman. As of this writing, it's not clear whether Taylor Gadbois or Kc McDermott will return from injury, so Jon Feliciano might start on the right once again.
Regardless, the Kaaya-protectors will be tested by Terrell Hartsfield, who leads Cincy with 3.0 sacks this season, and Silverberry Mouhon, who tallied 9.5 sacks in 2013.
Artie Burns, Cornerback
Moore and McKay pose difficult threats, but Artie Burns has the speed to keep up with either wideout.
The Hurricanes will probably resort to non-press zone coverage, something Cincinnati took full advantage of when it played Ohio State. However, Legaux cannot anticipate throws like Kiel, and he definitely doesn't have the same velocity.
Since Legaux must commit to throwing a vertical route earlier, Burns should be able to react and stick with his matchup while a safety sprints to provide help over the top.
Speed kills, and it also causes interceptions.
What They're Saying
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Cincinnati
According to Tom Groeschen of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Tuberville said he needs to correct a glaring weakness in dealing with up-tempo offensive attacks.
"We've been back on our heels on defense. I don't see a lot of difference in what we're doing defensively other than people are a heck of a lot better than what we saw last year, first few games. One thing we didn't do last year that we've done this year is we've gotten confused more with fast-paced offenses. Quarterbacks have been able to get the ball downfield to open receivers.
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Miami
Despite a terrible late-down performance at Georgia Tech, Golden said he won't listen to ignore the outside criticism, per Ava Wallace of The Miami Herald.
"No, I don't listen to anything, I never have. It's really important that our team just focus on what we can control and get ready to play Cincinnati. We left too many plays out there yesterday against a team that did not make any mistakes, and we lost the game.
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Prediction
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Despite Miami starting rather slow, Kiel's absence and a terrible defense combine to make a disastrous road trip for Cincinnati.
Legaux has trouble consistently finding his explosive receivers, yet the lack of a ground game forces him to keep throwing.
Johnson races to a season-high 175 yards and two scores, while Joe Yearby adds 45 more. Kaaya connects with Dorsett on a couple bombs, one of which results in a touchdown.
Prediction: Miami 31, Cincinnati 20
Note: Stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Follow Bleacher Report college football writer David Kenyon on Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR.
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