Why College Football's Fallen Favorites Shouldn't Overreact to Week of Upsets
Let us take a moment to welcome Oklahoma, UCLA, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oregon to an ever-growing club among college football's elite in 2014, the First Losers Club.
So after a wild Week 6, it's safe to write off the aforementioned schools from the national-title picture, right?
Not so fast, my friend.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
A check of recent history would suggest that there should be just the hint of joy in Mudville—aka Eugene, Westwood, Norman, College Station and Tuscaloosa. A year ago, the AP rankings after Week 6 did not see Auburn or Michigan State even ranked among the Top 25.
Auburn, of course, made it to the BCS title game before losing to Florida State in the final seconds. Michigan State won the Big Ten title and beat Stanford in the Rose Bowl.
And it's hard to count any team out in a season where parity, not superiority, is the prevailing theme. Indeed, since the AP began charting teams in 1936, no week had ever seen five of the top eight teams lose on the same weekend.
So a good life after a stunning upset is possible, especially with the help of the new four-team playoff.
In the past, the two-team BCS title game system made losing even one game difficult to overcome. With four teams in the mix now, it seems more likely that a one- or even two-loss team from a power-five conference could recover.
And for teams outside the SEC, the chances may be even brighter as the conference spends the rest of the season beating each other up with rank-sinking consequences. Mississippi State, for example, which knocked off Texas A&M, must turn around to host unbeaten Auburn. And Mississippi, which upset Alabama, face off against the Aggies on the road in what could be an elimination game.
Here's what each of this weekend's surprise losers must do to get back in the hunt for the Final Four.
1. Alabama
Week 6 rank (AP): 3
Week 7 rank (AP): 7
First loss: Ole Miss, 23-17
How to get back in the fight: Strange as it may seem, just take care of business and close the deal at the end of games. The Tide might still have the best team in the country. They are strong on defense, solid on offense and had control of Ole Miss until the very end.
"I think the big question for our team is, 'How do you respond to a loss?'" Alabama coach Nick Saban told reporters after the game. "There are several teams around here who have lost games and responded the right way. They have ended up having pretty good seasons."
The Tide's mistakes were more self-inflicted than anything else. "Dropped balls, turnovers, penalties and those sorts of things are not something you can do against a good football team, especially on the road," Saban said.
Saban's players seemed to be buying what he was selling after the game. "They weren't doing anything to make it hard on us," said Alabama tight end Brian Volger after the game. "We just need to come back next week and clean up our mistakes."
Outlook: Very good. The schedule works in their favor. Texas A&M (Oct. 18) and Auburn (Nov. 29) are at home. A game at Tennessee on Oct. 25 could be a challenge, but SEC East dangers Missouri and Georgia are not on the schedule this season.
Considering the parity around the rest of the country—the Big Ten has no unbeaten teams remaining, the Big 12 is down to Baylor and TCU, the Pac-12 down to Arizona and the ACC has only FSU—there may not be any undefeated teams at the end of the regular season. A one-loss SEC team remains virtually a lock to make the Final Four. Even a two-loss team might still be in the hunt.
And since Mississippi and Mississippi State must play each other, one of those teams will have at least one loss. It is even conceivable that Alabama could make the Final Four as a runner-up in its own division, which happened in the SEC in 2011, when No. 1 LSU met No. 2 Alabama in the BCS title game.
2. Oklahoma
Week 6 rank (AP): 4
Week 7 rank (AP): 11
First loss: TCU, 37-33
How to get back in the fight: Stay healthy and focused, but hope that there are some upsets in other conferences. The Sooners lost a tough game against a good opponent on the road. It happens, and their focus has already moved forward.
"This isn't the defining moment of our season," OU quarterback Trevor Knight told reporters after the game. "Who knows down the road? It's early in the season, a one-loss team can still make it."
But the Sooners need some help. It will start this week. OU must get past Texas in the annual Red River Shootout in Dallas. Ninety miles down the road in Waco, unbeaten Baylor takes on a TCU team which hasn't lost yet. A Bears win would help, because it would knock the Horned Frogs back to the pack and Baylor still must come to Oklahoma on Nov. 8.
Sooners coach Bob Stoops needs to find a way to tighten the defense. TCU picked up 469 yards in total offense, including 318 yards passing, against Oklahoma. If Horned Frogs quarterback Trevone Boykin could tear up the Sooners defense, imagine what Baylor's Bryce Petty might do.
Outlook: Fair. The schedule works in their favor. The problem may be in convincing the playoff selection committee that their one loss—two defeats will eliminate the Sooners—is as good or better than a one-loss selection from the SEC, Pac-12 or Big Ten. Without the added boost of a conference championship game, it might be difficult. Still, TCU might be the toughest game the Sooners encounter in the regular season. They just need the Horned Frogs to lose at least one game (but preferably two).
"All we care about is next week (Texas)," Stoops said after the game. "I like our team. We have great team chemistry. We have to keep getting better. We just need better play overall from all of us."
But will even that be enough to get the Sooners back in the playoff discussion?
3. Oregon
Week 6 ranking (AP): 2
Week 7 ranking (AP): 12
First loss: Arizona: 31-24
How to get back in the fight: Start by beating UCLA on Saturday. That's essential. And Marcus Mariota needs to ramp up his game and produce a steady stream of Heisman moments for the remainder of the season.
"We didn't play cleanly enough, or smart enough," said Oregon coach Mark Helfrich, who has watched an unranked Arizona team beat his Ducks the past two seasons. Of greater concern is an offensive line riddled with injuries.
Outlook: Not good. Oregon has been getting worse each week instead of better. Clearly, a two-loss Ducks team would be headed to Las Vegas or El Paso for a secondary bowl game and could forget the playoffs. As good as Mariota is, he can carry only so much of the load and is only a sprained ankle or a bruised elbow away from sending the Ducks into a tailspin.
While Oregon is tight-lipped about injuries, the O-line is missing a handful of starters and has become a mix-and-match unit that has allowed Mariota to be sacked 15 times already. Add in Oregon's lack of killer instinct—losing to Arizona last year and Stanford the past two seasons—and the playoffs don't look great. Still, if Mariota can beat the Bruins on Saturday, the chase will continue. But road games at Cal and Utah, which looked fairly easy a month ago, now appear to be much tougher.
4. Texas A&M
Week 6 ranking (AP): 6
Week 7 ranking (AP): 14
First loss: Mississippi State 48-31
How to get back in the fight: Play better defense, which may not be possible with this Aggies team. Mississippi State, led by quarterback Dak Prescott (five total touchdowns), took A&M apart, piling up 559 total yards. Coach Kevin Sumlin is an offensive magician, and he has made quarterback Kenny Hill a star in a matter of a months, but even with Hill working his magic, it's doubtful A&M has enough firepower to hold off the rest of the SEC West teams, who are starting to circle like sharks.
Outlook: Poor. "What we can't do is let today affect the rest of the season," said Sumlin after the loss to the Bulldogs. We've got a long way to go."
Despite Sumlin's best intentions, the loss on Saturday might stick a while. In addition to the defensive breakdowns, there were a host of miscues on offense, from dropped passes to moments when Hill looked like a young, inexperienced quarterback in his first college season rather than the second coming of Johnny Football.
Truth be told, the picture isn't exactly rosy for A&M. The Aggies went to overtime to beat Arkansas last week, face Ole Miss next week (at College Station) and then have to make trips to Alabama and Auburn. By the time LSU comes to Texas in the regular-season finale, there might not be much meat left on the Aggies' carcass. Even the head-turning win over South Carolina in the opener looks less impressive now considering the way the Gamecocks have stumbled the past few weeks.
"It's definitely going to be challenging," Aggies cornerback Deshazor Everett told the Dallas Morning News.
5. UCLA
Week 6 rank (AP): 8
Week 7 rank (AP): 18
First loss: Utah, 30-28
How to get back in the fight: The first goal is obvious. Oregon visits the Rose Bowl on Saturday in what is virtually a playoff game. Winner advances; loser goes home. But after the date with the Ducks, there's still lots of high-altitude climbing ahead, including a tough final month of the regular season featuring games against Arizona, at Washington, USC and Stanford. Even the Pac-12 title game will be tougher since it is now at a neutral site (Santa Clara).
Outlook: Not great. Utah exposed some flaws on both sides of the ball, recording an incredible 10 sacks against UCLA and picking up 242 rushing yards against the Bruins.
The Bruins have a history of failure at crunch time. In 1998 they were a game away from making their first BCS title game when they lost at Miami. In 2005, they were 8-0 and ranked No. 7 after a tough overtime win at Stanford but then lost to Arizona 52-14. Two years later, they were ranked No. 11 before a game at Utah and lost to the Utes, 44-6. And this year sees the Bruins facing an Oregon team they've lost to five straight times.
The pollsters were particularly harsh on the Bruins after Saturday's upset loss, dropping them 10 spots.
"We all bear responsibility," UCLA coach Jim Mora remarked after the game. "We have to figure out why and push on from there."
Mora and company had better come up with an answer by Saturday, when Oregon and Heisman hopeful quarterback Marcus Mariota come to the Rose Bowl.
As 2013 showed, six weeks into the season is too early to eliminate any quality one-loss team from consideration, and the expanded playoff system opens the window wider for any of the above teams to make the playoffs. But each team, other than Alabama, has used its mulligan.
The X-factor is Notre Dame. If the Irish, who remained unbeaten on Saturday in beating Stanford, finishes in the top four, they'll likely claim one of the spots, which could eliminate a champion from a power-five conference (watch out, Big 12).
As of now, the best guess for who gets back in the race (in order): Alabama, UCLA, Oregon, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
Mark Blaudschun covers college football as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has more than three decades of experience covering sports at a variety of newspapers in New Jersey, The Dallas Morning News and The Boston Globe. Follow him on Twitter @blauds.
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