Big Ten Football: How a Big Ten Team Can Still Make the College Football Playoff
It was only a month ago that the Big Ten was left for dead. With Michigan State's loss to Oregon and Ohio State's upset defeat at the hands of Virginia Tech, the conference's two top teams suffered early losses.
Since, Nebraska narrowly escaped McNeese State and lost to Michigan State, and Wisconsin dropped a game to surprise West Division leader Northwestern. Without a single undefeated program left, doesn't it seem as if all those gleeful predictions from those down south or out west actually came true?
In the words of the incomparable Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friend."
There are still a number of scenarios in which the Big Ten could earn a berth in the inaugural College Football Playoff this January.
How, you say? Glad you asked...
Unless otherwise noted, quotes or references to quotes were obtained firsthand by the writer.
Nebraska Is Down, but Not Quite Eliminated
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Nebraska's loss to Michigan State on Saturday was the first for the Cornhuskers in 2014, but it also means that the last undefeated Big Ten team this season has fallen.
Michigan State is now the No. 7 team in the nation, so the loss shouldn't be taken as a real season-ender.
The problem with the Huskers is the weakness MSU exposed on Saturday. While the Spartans aren't fielding quite the lock-down defense they did last season, MSU is still one of the better defensive squads in the country. Ameer Abdullah was held to just 45 yards on 24 carries—far off of his FBS-leading 166.6 yards per game average coming into Week 6.
Tommy Armstrong also struggled against Nebraska's first real test in 2014, going just 20-of-43 with two interceptions and no touchdowns.
Still, if the Huskers can win out in 2014 and get a bit of help along the way, it's not inconceivable that a 12-1 Big Ten champion Nebraska team would earn an invite to the playoff.
Remember Minnesota?
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Minnesota has been fairly irrelevant in the Big Ten for quite some time, so it's easy to understand why the Golden Gophers aren't getting much attention from the media or pollsters.
In the most recent AP Poll, the Gophers received just two points. In comparison, an FCS team, North Dakota State, received three poll points.
But the Gophers are 4-1 overall and 1-0 in the West. So who was the one loss to? Try No. 13 and Big 12 contender TCU. Not exactly what pundits like to call a "bad loss."
If the Gophers can continue on their current pace through the Big Ten, there's absolutely no reason a program like Minnesota can't be, or shouldn't be, in the conversation come December.
Ohio State Is Still Hanging Around
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The Ohio State Buckeyes suffered an admittedly ugly-looking loss to Virginia Tech earlier this season.
What's worse, the loss was in Columbus, to a then- and still-unranked Virginia Tech squad that lost its next two games (to East Carolina and Georgia Tech).
But the Buckeyes have gained some ground since. In the most recent Bleacher Report Top 25 Poll, the Buckeyes climbed to No. 15. But the Buckeyes have a problem.
First, with the exception of Michigan State, there are no teams remaining on Ohio State's schedule currently ranked in the Top 25. That could change in the case of Minnesota, but right now, it looks as if there aren't a ton of opportunities for those critical "quality wins."
And if the Buckeyes beat Michigan State, doesn't that simultaneously give ammunition to those who want to preach that MSU is a pretender anyway?
Ohio State, at this point, is a long shot to make the playoffs. The simple truth is the loss to Virginia Tech is a lot uglier that MSU's loss to Oregon. In fact, among all of the top one-loss contenders, Ohio State likely has the ugliest loss on its record.
We're not ready to declare the Buckeyes a lost cause just yet, but if you're just hoping to see any Big Ten team in the playoff, you probably shouldn't pin all of your hopes on Ohio State.
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Michigan State Is 19-2
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Yes, you read that correctly. Over the last 21 games, Michigan State is 19-2.
Quick trivia question: how many programs in the FBS have a better record over their last 21 games?
Two-time Pac-12 champion Stanford? Nope. The Cardinal are 16-5.
Oregon? Try again (17-4).
Oklahoma, right? Like the Ducks, the Sooners are also 17-4.
How about Auburn? Close, but the Tigers are 18-3.
Certainly Alabama can match MSU, right? Wrong. The Crimson Tide are 18-3.
Ohio State is similarly close, but falls just behind MSU at 18-3.
The only FBS program to best MSU's record over the past 21 games is Florida State (21-0). No other program even matches Sparty's record. Of course, the argument is that 2013 shouldn't have a bearing on 2014, and that's not only a valid argument—it's the correct one.
But you know—you just know—the good ol' boys down south will start bloviating about how good the SEC has been in the past and that means they deserve to have a couple of teams in the playoff rather than just one.
Fine. If the SEC and their fans want to use sustained success from a previous year, just remind them that you can use the exact same excuse.
Non-Big Ten Bubble Teams
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If you're down on the Big Ten, you might also want to take a look around the rest of the nation. The other power five conferences aren't exactly shaping up like we expected just a few short weeks ago.
To put it simply, it's not looking good for the unbeatens and early favorites.
In the Pac-12, Oregon lost to Arizona to drop from the top of the North Division standings. UCLA dropped a game to Utah this past weekend, also dropping out of the lead in the North. So just who is in the top spot? California!
In the South, Arizona—of all teams—is the lone remaining undefeated team in the entire conference, rocking a 5-0 record. Other preseason hopefuls, USC and Stanford, each now have a pair of losses.
The odds-on favorite in the Big 12, Oklahoma, is no longer undefeated after losing to TCU. The Horned Frogs, along with Baylor, are the lone unbeatens, while Oklahoma State and Kansas State both still have spotless conference records.
The ACC is all about Florida State. Georgia Tech is 5-0, but currently buried deep in the Top 25 and yet to be seriously tested.
That just leaves one last conference...
The Almighty SEC Isn't as Almighty as They Thought
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Down goes Alabama. Down goes Texas A&M. And these weren't the only ranked SEC teams to suffer through losses already this season.
Heck, defending SEC East champion Missouri lost to Indiana.
Lucky for us and the playoff committee members, we'll get to see Michigan State play Indiana on October 18. Since the College Football Playoff's stated criteria includes "records against common opponents," the MSU-Indiana game is suddenly important for a change.
It's also worth noting that Missouri then defeated South Carolina, and South Carolina has defeated Georgia.
Now, SEC fans will argue that the SEC beats itself up, and to a certain extent, that's true. But if they can use that argument, why can't Big Ten teams do the same?
If we're eliminating Nebraska for losing to a Top 10 MSU squad, or MSU for losing to a then-Top 10 Oregon team, shouldn't we eliminate Alabama for the same reason? What about Texas A&M?
If you want to argue MSU should be out because Oregon then went on to lose to Arizona, we'd ask you to put the same scenario to an Alabama fan. Should the Tide's chances now be directly tied to the success of Ole Miss from here on out? Does Nick Saban really want his team's fortunes to be dependent on Hugh Freeze's future success?
Adding a second team from one conference might make sense with one team dominating everyone else combined with some epic tie-breaking being used to figure out who the sacrificial lamb should be in the conference title game. But without a clear, dominating, undefeated performance from a member, how can the case be made for two teams, thereby leaving out two actual champions from other power conferences?
It would take some amazing acrobatics to explain that one, but that's never stopped the SEC and its backers from trying.
We'll have some hard answers soon enough. The first College Football Playoff rankings will be released on October 28.
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