5 1-Loss Teams with the Best Chance to Make the College Football Playoff
Well, that was interesting.
Week 6 of the college football season was its most chaotic yet. Eleven Top 25 teams lost, five of which were ranked in the Top 10. According to Brett McMurphy of ESPN, this was the first time five of the AP poll's Top Eight teams lost in the same weekend in the regular season.
Normally, that loss might have sounded the death knell for a team's BCS chances, but the four-team postseason field means teams can get mulligans. For that matter, two-loss teams could still be in the conversation.
It's hard to be perfect, no matter the schedule. Week 6 was proof of that, if nothing else.
Which one-loss teams still have the best shot at a playoff appearance? The answers are in the following slides.
Oklahoma
1 of 5
Big 12 teams have been viewed in an interesting light in this playoff era because the conference lacks a championship game. That means teams like Oklahoma, eyeing a playoff spot, play a round-robin nine-game schedule.
Mathematically, that increases a team's chance of suffering a conference loss, which is what the Sooners did Saturday at TCU, losing 37-33.
The good news for Oklahoma is that the TCU Frogs look like a genuinely good football team, one that could win a lot of games this season. In other words, it's not a "bad" loss.
There are still three opportunities, as of now, for Oklahoma to beat Top 25 teams—and all are at home. Oklahoma gets Kansas State on Oct. 18, Baylor on Nov. 8 and Oklahoma State on Dec. 6.
That last date is particularly important. The Sooners would not be "out of sight, out of mind" to the selection committee just because there's no Big 12 championship game.
Going undefeated would obviously have helped Oklahoma separate itself after a weird weekend, but one loss isn't going to hurt it too much, either.
Alabama
2 of 5
Here's a sobering stat for Alabama: The Crimson Tide are 4-3 in their last seven games, and all three losses have come against ranked teams.
Jon Solomon of CBSSports.com opines that the 23-17 loss to Ole Miss is the "latest wake-up call that the Saban dynasty is over" and that a "new order of the SEC West continues to evolve." What does that mean for Alabama? It means that the Tide aren't the most feared team in college football and that Nick Saban's teams are beatable.
Since the SEC West is an absolute beast of a division, Alabama's toughest (i.e., most meaningful) stretch lies ahead. It's going to be hard to win out, but on the other hand, quality wins could be ahead.
The Tide's offense is talented, maybe Saban's best since arriving in Tuscaloosa, and Ole Miss is up there among the best defenses it will face all year. As long as Alabama can score points, its defense should be able to make key stops.
Of the one-loss teams in the SEC, including Texas A&M and everyone from the SEC East, Alabama still looks like the one that's most capable of winning out.
Michigan State
3 of 5
Yes, Michigan State. No, the Big Ten isn't dead yet.
In fact, the Spartans were helped out tremendously by Oregon losing to Arizona on Thursday. If the Ducks cough up another loss at some point this season, Michigan State is in good playoff position, provided it can take care of its business the rest of the year.
Michigan State almost went full "Sparty no!" against Nebraska but nevertheless has a win against a Top 25 opponent. A Nov. 8 game against Ohio State still appears to have a lot riding on it from a divisional, conference and playoff standpoint.
One loss, to Oregon on the road, is not enough of a reason to dismiss the Spartans. They still have an excellent defense, especially against the run, and a potent offense they haven't had in a while.
The Spartans are far from out of the playoff conversation. If anything, Week 6 opened the door for a lot of teams, Michigan State being one of them.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Oregon
4 of 5
You'd think Oregon and the Pac-12's playoff hopes would be in the grave after Thursday's upset at the hands of Arizona.
Don't buy that coffin just yet.
The Ducks have problems, specifically along the offensive line and on defense. Those may cost Oregon more wins down the road, as Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports predicts. No one here is disputing that. But of the two major one-loss teams in the Pac-12, Oregon and UCLA, I have more faith in the Ducks to win out and be in a position to be in the playoff conversation at year's end. Or less faith in UCLA. Either one.
Both the Bruins and Ducks have similar problems along the offensive line. The difference is that Oregon has a key win over Michigan State in its nonconference schedule.
UCLA has also looked average at best in all but one game so far. Quarterback Brett Hundley is considered a dual-threat quarterback, but the reality is that he has nowhere near the moves to evade pressure that Marcus Mariota does for Oregon.
If it has to come down to a choice between UCLA and Oregon, the Ducks get the nod. Of course, these two teams meet in one week and could meet again in the Pac-12 championship. This whole discussion could be completely nullified in seven days.
Texas A&M
5 of 5
This was a borderline choice.
Texas A&M was thoroughly outplayed in a 48-31 loss to Mississippi State on Saturday. A couple of late scores helped pad the stats and make things look somewhat respectable, but this was a game the Bulldogs dominated.
The Aggies defense, though young and talented, remains a major question mark, especially against the run. There are going to be more capable offenses remaining on the schedule, so A&M is likely going to be in its fair share of shootouts going forward.
The passing game has been off, too. Quarterback Kenny Hill has made inaccurate throws, and receivers have made uncharacteristic drops. The lingering shoulder injury to Malcome Kennedy, the unquestioned leader of the offense, definitely doesn't help.
“When Malcome starts talking, everybody stops and listens,” Hill said, via Kate Hairopoulos of The Dallas Morning News. “He has the respect of the whole locker room. We all just believe in Malcome.”
The number of quality games on A&M's schedule means the Aggies would be in a great position if they win out. The problem, though, is that there are too many concerns to believe that's definitely going to be the case.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
