College Football Picks Week 7: Predictions and Odds for Top 25 Schedule
From the dying embers of a historic weekend of college football upsets rises a new-look Top 25 that promises to be every bit as catastrophic in terms of College Football Playoff implications.
A mere few days removed from witnessing half of the Top 10 in The Associated Press Top 25 rankings fall, a brief glance over the Week 7 slate assures that plenty of rank-ruining contests will make the lives of pollsters wildly difficult once again.
Whether it is a one-loss team such as Oregon looking to keep its CFP dreams alive or a red-hot Mississippi State squad looking for another upset to stay on the path, Week 7 is not one to take lightly—no letdown potential exists.
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Here is a look at what is in store for the AP Top 25 members.
Week 7 Top 25 Schedule Projections
| No. 1 Florida State | Syracuse | FSU -20 | No. 1 Florida State |
| No. 2 Auburn | No. 3 Mississippi State | AUB -3 | No. 2 Auburn |
| No. 3 Ole Miss | No. 14 Texas A&M | A&M -1 | No. 3 Ole Miss |
| No. 9 TCU | No. 5 Baylor | BU -11 | No. 9 TCU |
| North Carolina | No. 6 Notre Dame | ND -16 | No. 6 Notre Dame |
| No. 7 Alabama | Arkansas | AL -9 | No. 7 Alabama |
| No. 8 Michigan State | Purdue | MSU -21.5 | No. 8 Michigan State |
| USC | No. 10 Arizona | USC -2.5 | USC |
| Texas | No. 11 Oklahoma | OK -14.5 | No. 11 Oklahoma |
| No. 12 Oregon | No. 18 UCLA | ORE -3 | No. 12 Oregon |
| No. 13 Georgia | No. 23 Missouri | UGA -1.5 | No. 13 Georgia |
| No. 16 Oklahoma State | Kansas | OSU -21 | No. 16 Oklahoma State |
| No. 19 East Carolina | South Florida | ECU -14.5 | South Florida |
| Duke | No. 22 Georgia Tech | GT -6 | Duke |
| Washington State | No. 25 Stanford | ST -18 | No. 25 Stanford |
Note: All odds, updated as of 8 p.m. ET on Oct. 5, are courtesy of Odds Shark.
Breaking Down Key Week 7 Matchups
No. 12 Oregon at No. 18 UCLA
Oregon, meet UCLA, a team previously ranked in the Top 10 before suffering a two-point loss to unranked Utah last week. UCLA, meet Oregon, a team previously ranked in the Top 10 before suffering a seven-point loss to unranked Arizona last week.
Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley could use introductions too. The former was the Heisman favorite before his second loss to Arizona in as many years, which saw him throw for 276 yards and two scores but give the ball away on a late fumble.
Hundley was a sleeper for the prestigious award, but he was brutalized in the form of 10 sacks on the way to a mediocre performance.
That in no way prohibits this one from being quite entertaining, even if a joke by ESPN.com's Chantel Jennings sums up the contest quite well:
The overarching implications to this one could not be bigger. Both sides simply cannot afford a loss, with both still looking ahead to a matchup with Stanford and the Bruins needing to also deal with a tough USC team.
Sound offensive line play or not, there figures to be plenty of eye-popping production to catch in this one with two junior quarterbacks on the hunt to salvage individual hardware aspirations and championship goals after returning to school for those very reasons in the first place.
With his back against the wall, expect Mariota to emerge the victor in this particular duel. The UCLA defense has struggled all year long, giving up 20 points to Virginia, 35 to Memphis and 30 to Utah. He probably will not be upright a lot, but Mariota will get it done against a weak defense.
Prediction: Oregon 45, UCLA 35
No. 2 Auburn at No. 3 Mississippi State
Say hello to a pair of teams that somehow managed to stand tall in the midst of the chaos that was last week.
Well, perhaps "somehow" is the wrong word. Elite quarterback play led both teams to victory. Very similar quarterback play, at that.
Fans know about Nick Marshall. He led the Tigers through last year's successful campaign and has returned this year as an even better passer. In a 41-7 trouncing of LSU last week, the senior threw for 207 yards and a pair of scores, and dashed for another 119 and two more scores on the ground.
On the other side is an emerging national sensation in Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott, who reminds many of the efficient passing and bruising running ways of a collegiate legend by the name of Tim Tebow.
In a 48-31 upset over Texas A&M, Prescott was also successful in a dual-threat capacity, throwing for 259 yards and two scores, with another 77 yards and three scores on the ground. For some, including CBSSports.com's Dennis Dodd, Prescott's resume stacks up even better than Marshall's right now:
So yes, expect fireworks in another Week 7 showdown with wide-ranging implications. Hence the visit from the College GameDay crew, too:
Considering both teams go on to encounter a bevy of teams from the SEC, as well as a large chunk of the SEC West—which touted six of its seven teams in the Top 15 before last weekend—the importance of this showdown is huge.
Again, there is individual hardware on the line, but more important is a serious advantage on the rest of a conference that is doing nothing short of beating each other up on the road to the playoff. Right now the nod has to go with the more experienced quarterback and team in terms of recent success, road game or not.
Prediction: Auburn 40, Mississippi State 34
No. 9 TCU at No. 5 Baylor
It took a bit of time, but TCU is finally a known commodity on the national stage.
One of the nation's top defenses also comes equipped with a dual-threat leader of its own in the form of junior Trevone Boykin, who ran wild on the then-ranked No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners last weekend to the tune of 318 passing yards and a pair of scores, with another 77 yards on the ground to lead the team in that area.
The nation was already well aware of the threat Baylor poses, though, even if the schedule to date has been lackluster at best.
Led by Heisman contender Bryce Petty, the Bears are 5-0, most recently knocking off the hapless Texas Longhorns, 28-7. There, Petty threw for 111 yards and two scores but let his backs, such as Shock Linwood (28 carries for 148 yards and a score), do the heavy lifting.
For Baylor coach Art Briles, his experienced squad looks better than ever.
"It was just a grind-out win. I think we're a better team than last year," Briles said, per The Associated Press, via ESPN.com. "This is a mature, tough minded, confident team that knows how to win."
For that talk to be reinforced, though, the Bears will need to shine in their first true test of the season. The TCU defense ranks in the top 10 and was able to fluster Oklahoma enough to get a win.
Whichever team walks away the winner has a serious advantage when it comes to a playoff berth, with the Big 12 being nowhere near as brutal as some of the other conferences. Understanding that, expect both quarterbacks in this matchup to also be in pristine form, which, in this case, gives a slight edge to Petty and the Bears.
Prediction: Baylor 48, TCU 45
Stats and information via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified. AP poll via The Associated Press.
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