Buying or Selling Every Top 10 Team as Playoff Championship Contender
If college football were a stock market, this past weekend would have resulted in record trading.
With seven unbeaten teams and 11 ranked schools losing last week, the likelihood of having four clear contenders for the national title is dwindling. The College Football Playoff selection committee is going to have its hands full trying to sift through what is shaping up to be a long list of worthy candidates for the semifinal bowl games.
A smart investor knows not to make impulse transactions, but as things stand now, it's time to take a look at the teams currently occupying the top 10 spots in the Associated Press poll to see whether they really stack up as championship contenders or pretenders.
Follow along to see whether it's smart to buy low or sell high.
10. Arizona Wildcats
1 of 10
Selling
Arizona (5-0) was unranked a week ago and is now in the Top 10. Is that because of how good the Wildcats are or just a byproduct of the purge of ranked teams?
Its last four wins have been by three, seven, four and seven points, respectively, and that includes a Hail Mary. Yet it also has a road win over a Top Five team.
Winning at Oregon is by no means something to be discounted, regardless of how the Ducks performed or what issues they may be having with their offensive line and defensive breakdowns. Arizona has had Oregon's number the past two years, and a road victory like that is among the most valuable commodities in college football.
But now Arizona finds itself in rarefied air, occupying that space with one of the youngest and most inexperienced lineups in the country. Its offense is ranked seventh nationally in yards per game at 574, and according to Ted Miller of ESPN.com, the Wildcats have had only six three-and-out possessions despite being guided by a redshirt freshman quarterback.
Anu Solomon hasn't been perfect, but he's also been unfazed. He's thrown for 1,741 yards and 14 touchdowns, while his receiving corps is talented but made up of mostly freshmen and sophomores. His running backs are a true freshman (Nick Wilson) and a fifth-year senior (Terris Jones-Grigsby) who never had a carry before this season.
Many defensive playmakers are underclassmen too, but that defense has also been a liability at times. The defense is allowing 5.88 yards per play, more than every unbeaten team other than Georgia Tech.
Arizona hasn't been ranked this high since 2010, and it didn't last long. The Wildcats lost their next game, at home, to an unranked team.
Next stock evaluation: Oct. 11 vs. USC
9. TCU Horned Frogs
2 of 10
Selling
TCU (4-0) was getting noticed before the season began as a potential sleeper team, with Gary Patterson making the necessary staff and schematic changes to get the Horned Frogs competitive in the Big 12 after struggling in their first two years of power-conference football.
Last Saturday provided us with the first real glimpse of what TCU has going for it, but it's unrealistic to base everything on one outcome—especially when the next game on the schedule will prove to be far more difficult, as well as much more indicative of what the Horned Frogs are made of.
TCU's defense came through in the second half of its 37-33 win over Oklahoma. Paul Dawson's interception return for a touchdown was one of a slew of big plays from a unit that mostly struggled before halftime. It won't be able to get away with that this weekend at Baylor or against the rest of the Big 12's powerful offenses.
What's most impressive this season about the Frogs has been how much quarterback Trevone Boykin has thrived in the new offense implemented by co-coordinators Sonny Cumbie and Doug Meacham. He's been maybe the most improved player in the country in 2014 and why TCU will contend for the conference title.
TCU just isn't ready to suddenly leap into the playoff spotlight and be a legitimate contender for the championship...not yet.
Next stock evaluation: Oct. 11 at Baylor
8. Michigan State Spartans
3 of 10
Buying
It was a common argument during the BCS era that a loss wasn't as damaging if it happened early and to a good team. Nothing indicates this won't also be a common viewpoint in the College Football Playoff age, which is why Michigan State remained in the title discussion even before so many top teams lost last week.
And now that it's looking more and more likely that there will be more teams without perfect records in the semifinals than those devoid of a blemish, the playoff debate will end up turning toward deciding which teams have the best loss.
Nicole Auerbach of USA Today cited this in declaring Michigan State (4-1) the best one-loss team in FBS: "The Spartans should get credit for losing to a healthy, dynamic Oregon team playing well, something that can't be taken away from them no matter how many losses the banged-up Ducks end up with. That's the best loss anyone in the College Football Playoff discussion has right now."
Oregon was looking like the best team in the country when it rallied to beat Michigan State on Sept. 6, and while the Ducks have since lost and appear less dominant now, that shouldn't take away from their value as an opponent at the time. And since that loss, the Spartans have gotten better, which we saw during the first three quarters of Saturday's 27-22 win over unbeaten Nebraska.
The near-collapse in the fourth quarter is concerning, but it might also be the kind of thing coach Mark Dantonio needed to have happen in order to reinforce to his team to keep the foot on the pedal. And with Ohio State coming up soon on the schedule in what's going to be the unofficial Big Ten title game, getting the kinks out before then is necessary.
Michigan State still has some things to work on, such as being able to move the ball consistently and not just via big plays, but it has a few weeks of stress-free games to get that taken care of.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 8 vs. Ohio State
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. Alabama Crimson Tide
4 of 10
Selling
Alabama (4-1) is coming off its first pre-November loss since 2010, and that one setback has the villagers at the gate with torches and pitchforks. This is pretty much the standard any time the Crimson Tide has suffered a rare defeat under Nick Saban, but something about this one feels different.
The Tide had two weeks to prepare for what they had to know was going to be a hostile environment at Ole Miss, where their opponent had for some time been looking toward that game as the biggest in school history. Yet Alabama didn't play with any of the crispness it's known for. Its offense fell back into the old pattern of being plain (after showing lots of creativity during the first four games of the season), and the defense failed to make big plays save for Cyrus Jones' fumble return just before halftime.
This wasn't a fluke loss, on a one-in-a-million final play, like at Auburn last November. It wasn't the result of uninspired play, as has been the case in a few bowls that were deemed substandard because they weren't the title game.
No, it felt more like the start of a trend. It's been a long time since Alabama has been in a position where it needed a breather to regroup, but instead it has to play at Arkansas, and the Razorbacks are looking at this game in a similar fashion to how the Ole Miss contingent did.
Next stock evaluation: Oct. 11 at Arkansas
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 of 10
Selling
Plot Notre Dame's results on a graph, and it would be fair to say the Fighting Irish (5-0) had their stock peak in early September and have been losing value ever since.
And look closer at Notre Dame's company report, and you'll see the main factor in this devaluation has been what is the team's best asset: quarterback Everett Golson.
Golson has shown none of the tentativeness that limited him two years ago, when he was more or less a game manager for Notre Dame during its run to the BCS title game. In 2014 he's been confident and aggressive, and that's translated into big numbers and great plays, but of late it's also led to mounting miscues.
"This whole thing where Everett Golson turns the ball over repeatedly isn’t going to work for Notre Dame," CBS Sports' Tom Fornelli tweeted during Saturday's 17-14 win over Stanford, a game during which Golson threw an interception in the red zone and lost a fumble at his own 12-yard line. And that was a week after he had four turnovers in the 31-15 win over Syracuse.
Strangely, though, those mistakes have come in the same games where he's made huge plays. Against Syracuse, Golson completed 25 straight passes, one short of the FBS record, and threw four touchdown passes. And he marched the Irish down the field in the final minutes to beat Stanford, completely mistake-free.
One way of looking at this is that, despite struggles, Golson and Notre Dame get the job done. But the smarter evaluation is that he and the Irish have regressed, despite inferior competition and favorable locales. With a back-loaded schedule that includes three straight road games after this weekend, the forecast isn't sunny.
Next stock evaluation: Oct. 18 at Florida State
5. Baylor Bears
6 of 10
Buying
Baylor (5-0) is the least-tested team among the Top 10, having faced five teams with a combined record of 8-18, so it's hard to really evaluate the Bears' performances to this point. But with such an amazing offense and a defense that's far better than it gets credit for, it's easy to rave over what they've done so far.
That offense is averaging 51 points and 590.6 yards per game, while the defense has allowed 12.4 points and 267.2 yards. And while those numbers haven't come against the best competition, they have come despite numerous injuries on the offensive end and plenty of garbage time when defenses often let up and start getting scored on.
Bryce Petty missed a game with broken vertebrae in his back, yet other than the uniform number of the quarterback, you would have hardly noticed it was backup Seth Russell in there. The same goes for the wide receiver corps, which because of injuries has made it so that six different players have at least 10 receptions already.
And Baylor has had that "bad" game on offense too, managing only 389 yards and three offensive touchdowns last week at Texas, but because the Bears defense looked so solid, the decreased output had no bearing on the outcome.
With Oklahoma State and TCU proving to be stronger than expected, the Big 12 is getting more attention than before the season began. Baylor is the defending champ, and though it has to play at Oklahoma next month (where it's never won before), it remains the class of this improving league.
Next stock evaluation: Oct. 11 vs. TCU
3. (tie) Ole Miss Rebels
7 of 10
Selling
The state of Mississippi was one big party last Saturday, and Oxford was the VIP room. But all celebrations have an end point, and Ole Miss' euphoria from its landmark win over Alabama won't carry it through the rest of the SEC West gauntlet.
The Rebels (5-0) knocked off the Crimson Tide as much because of what Alabama did wrong as because of what Ole Miss did right. The Rebels had a relatively clean game, losing only the one fumble just before halftime that Alabama converted into a touchdown and an 11-point lead, but that's not their modus operandi. They've turned the ball over at least once every game, with quarterback Bo Wallace leading the charge via his six interceptions and one fumble.
Of the Top 10 teams, Ole Miss has the least explosive offense, but its defense has so far done its job and was integral in the win over Alabama and for preventing the sloppy games against Memphis and Boise State from going the other way.
Wallace seems to think none of that matters—that the only thing worth mentioning is the confidence that came from beating Alabama.
"We now know what we thought we already knew," Wallace told The Associated Press (h/t ESPN). "We know that we can compete with any team in the country. Now it's just getting to work and making sure we take every day as an opportunity to get better."
Ole Miss now faces a Texas A&M team that is limping home after a blowout loss at Mississippi State and will be hungry to prove it still matters. The Rebels haven't faced such a scenario yet this season, not to mention this will be their first real road game (because winning at Vanderbilt doesn't earn much credit this season). They might be a bit too confident after just one victory.
Next stock evaluation: Oct. 11 at Texas A&M
3. (tie) Mississippi State Bulldogs
8 of 10
Buying
Last week we made some bold predictions for October, doing so before the college football landscape went to plaid last weekend. But one of those predictions was that, when the current month ends, the only unbeaten team left in FBS would be Mississippi State.
After seeing what happened Saturday, that forecast is looking pretty good. And not just because so many teams picked up their first loss, but because of how dominant the Bulldogs looked in dispatching Texas A&M.
MSU is starting to look like many of the past teams that emerged from a crowded field to take down a championship, at least those other than Alabama. It has a mobile quarterback, Dak Prescott, who has proved to be the one thing opponents haven't been able to solve. The Bulldogs have a hard-running back in Josh Robinson, who doesn't get the kind of hype bestowed on top-tier running backs but does everything he needs to do for his team to be successful.
The Bulldogs also have a defense that, while not ironclad, makes big plays and forces mistakes. They have forced 12 turnovers in five games, and last week linebacker Richie Brown intercepted A&M's Kenny Hill three times.
Like the rest of the powers in the SEC West, Mississippi State won't have a shortage of tests between now and the postseason. It's lucky to gets A&M and Auburn at home to start, but it will still have to visit Alabama and rival Ole Miss in November. The Bulldogs have won on the road twice already, at South Alabama and LSU, and while neither of those teams is doing very well, the results are still impressive.
Next stock evaluation: Oct. 11 vs. Auburn
2. Auburn Tigers
9 of 10
Buying
The rise of the Mississippi schools and the faltering of Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M have made the SEC West the most talked-about division in the history of divisions, or so it seems. Yet there's a team in that group that has somehow been ignored to this point, and it's the one that's playing better than any of them.
Auburn (5-0) has done everything it's needed to, at this point, to remain a top contender for the title. It has a road win over a ranked opponent, beating Kansas State without playing its best game. The Tigers have also taken care of business against the teams they're supposed to beat, by defeating them convincingly.
There have been no performance hiccups from The Plains—no letting up or skipping a beat. Yet because of what's happened with the other teams in the SEC West, Auburn has managed to be overlooked.
Zach Braziller of the New York Post put it in very distinct terms when summarizing last week's craziness—how what the Tigers have done has been lost in the shuffle:
"The best team in the country continues to be an afterthought. Despite the Tigers’ 5-0 record, their absolute dismantling of LSU Saturday night, even though they reached the BCS Championship game last season, nearly upsetting Florida State, and have one of the nation’s very best quarterbacks in Nick Marshall, they have flown under the radar.
"
Admittedly, Auburn's toughest road remains ahead, beginning with Saturday's trip to Starkville. The Tigers' remaining schedule has five ranked teams on it, including four on the road. There may be no more battle-tested squad in the playoff field if the Tigers make that short list.
Next stock evaluation: Oct. 11 at Mississippi State
1. Florida State Seminoles
10 of 10
Buying
Despite the quality of its results so far, Florida State (5-0) remains a top contender for the national championship for two distinct reasons: It's done it before and has what it takes to do it again.
Sure, the Seminoles didn't look wildly impressive in their most notable games to this point, holding off an underrated Oklahoma State in the opener and then needing overtime to beat Clemson at home. We're also talking about a team that trailed by 17 points in its only true road game, and while FSU did rally for a 56-41 win at North Carolina State, some of the shine has come off that opponent because the Wolfpack went out and got shut out by Clemson the following game.
To this point, what FSU has shown us, more than anything, has been an ability to overcome obstacles. The run game isn't anywhere near what it was last season, nor is the defense, though last week's lockdown performance against an offensively challenged Wake Forest is a start. But FSU has won despite those deficiencies and has also managed to avoid Jameis Winston's off-field distractions getting in the way.
When all is said and done, taking out Clemson without their Heisman-winning quarterback is going to look really good for the Seminoles, since Clemson has been a completely different team since Deshaun Watson took over under center.
Next stock evaluation: Oct. 18 vs. Notre Dame
All statistical information courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
