Big Ten Football Predictions for 2nd Half of 2014 Season
The Big Ten Conference hasn't gotten much love this season, and understandably so. With a shoddy record outside of the league, particularly against power opponents, the B1G has moved to the back of the line among the five major college football conferences.
But now that conference play is in full swing throughout the country, all focus turns inward, and the Big Ten's best will try to separate themselves from the pack and remain in the running for a major bowl bid or a spot in the first-ever College Football Playoff.
With as wild as this season has already been, though, it's hard to predict just what will happen over the final eight weeks and into the postseason. We'll try anyway.
Take a look at our predictions for Big Ten happenings for the remainder of 2014 and then let us know your guesses in the comments.
Having Three League Losses Wins the West and Earns 5th Place
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Teams and fans in the Big Ten West will need to get very familiar with the conference's divisional tiebreaker rules, because five schools are going to tie for first in the division. All with 5-3 records.
And when it's all said and done, Minnesota will emerge from the mass of tiebreakers to play in the conference title game in Indianapolis.
Think it can't happen? Here's how it will:
Northwestern's win over Wisconsin has already muddied the water, as the Badgers and Nebraska (which lost at Michigan State) already have a loss. Iowa, Minnesota and Northwestern are unbeaten so far, but Minnesota and Northwestern play on Saturday in Minneapolis, and the rest of these teams still must face on another between now and Nov. 29.
In the end, all five of those teams will go 2-2 against one another, pushing us down to the second tiebreaker criteria, which is ranking teams by their record in the division. Northwestern gets knocked out here, since it will lose at Purdue on Nov. 22 to go 3-3 against division opponents, while everyone else finishes 4-2.
With Northwestern essentially finishing fifth, the next eliminator is how everyone did against the Wildcats since they'll represent the highest finisher among those not still tied for first. That knocks out Wisconsin, as well as Nebraska, which will lose in Evanston on Oct. 18.
Iowa and Minnesota remain, and the Golden Gophers' Nov. 8 home victory over the Hawkeyes will earn them a shot at their first Big Ten title since sharing the crown in 1967.
Melvin Gordon Will Win the Rushing Title
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The Big Ten had seven 1,000-yard rushers last season, including a quarterback (Ohio State's Braxton Miller) and two from the same team (Wisconsin). This year's rushing race figures to be just as heated, with four main horses out ahead of the field.
When the regular season is complete, Melvin Gordon will finish on top, edging out the trio of Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah, Minnesota's David Cobb and Indiana's Tevin Coleman.
Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald would tend to agree with this assessment, as he compared Gordon to NFL great Walter Payton even before Gordon ran for 259 yards on Saturday.
"There are times guys have clear shots at him, and he has an unbelievable ability to make people miss," Fitzgerald told Teddy Greenstein of the Chicago Tribune. "He can take the first hit and not break stride. And he gets stronger throughout the game."
Here's how they sit right now:
| Name | Carries | Yards |
| Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska | 138 | 878 |
| Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin | 105 | 871 |
| Tevin Coleman, Indiana | 105 | 841 |
| David Cobb, Minnesota | 124 | 722 |
Abdullah's numbers are through six games, while the others have played five times. Abdullah also has already had the opportunity to run against Illinois, which is last in the league in rushing defense at 249.5 yards allowed per game.
Coleman doesn't get to face his own team, and with the Hoosiers likely to be trailing in most games, he'll be used as much as a receiver as a ball-carrier as they try to come back.
Abdullah, Cobb and Gordon have all had at least one stinker of a game so far, but it's happened twice for Abdullah including last week when he had only 45 yards on 24 carries against Michigan State.
Cobb and Gordon are on run-first teams, but Gordon gets the edge because he's already shown he can put up big numbers regardless of how his team fares by dominating Northwestern in a loss. He's had 59 carries the last two games after only 46 in the first three, and the Badgers will continue to ride him for all he's worth as long as their quarterback situation remains uncertain.
Gary Nova Will Win the Passing Title
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After throwing for 404 yards and three touchdowns in Rutgers' 26-24 win over Michigan on Saturday, senior Gary Nova was named the Big Ten's Offensive Player of the Week.
That accolade goes along with player of the week honors he earned last year and in 2012, for two other conferences, as unique a feat as there may ever be in college football history. Keith Sargeant of NJ.com noted that Nova was named the Big East's best offensive player after throwing for 397 yards and five TDs against Arkansas in September 2012, and in 2013 he earned the American Athletic Conference's weekly offensive nod twice.
It's been a long and winding journey for Nova, who has started 34 games over his career with the Scarlet Knights and is on pace for his best season ever. That's assuming he can put up more games like last week and less like the previous Big Ten outing when Penn State intercepted him five times.
Four of Nova's remaining games are against teams ranked in the top half of the Big Ten in pass defense, but Michigan is third on that list, and Nova looked calm and composed throughout in that win.
"For Nova, it was a game where he protected the ball and made some clutch throws when he needed to," wrote Stephen Edelson of the Daily Record. "In the weeks to come it could do wonders for his confidence while giving the whole team some swagger."
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Tim Beckman Will Get Fired After Second Winless League Mark in Three Years
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"Take away those eight conference losses, and Illinois would be unbeaten in Big Ten play."
The above quote hasn't actually been said by anybody, but it falls along the lines of some of the things Illinois coach Tim Beckman has said in explaining losses the Fighting Illini have suffered this season. Rather than point out how things can get better, the third-year coach seems to be taking more of an "if only" approach.
And that's going to get him fired after he goes winless in the Big Ten for the second time and 1-23 overall in the conference during his short tenure.
Losing at home to Purdue last week robbed Beckman of his most winnable Big Ten game, yet on Monday he told reporters that "if we run the table we end up with nine wins" and "we take 10 plays out of that (Purdue) game, and it's a different game."
Illinois hired Beckman after back-to-back eight-win seasons at Toledo, but since then he's just 9-21. Michigan's Brady Hoke is getting the most heat for how his team is doing, but Beckman is the best bet to get canned in the Big Ten.
Penn State Knocks Big Ten out of the College Football Playoff
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Penn State scored a major victory earlier this season when the NCAA lifted the Nittany Lions' postseason ban that was part of sanctions imposed following the Jerry Sandusky scandal.
That means PSU could not only play in a bowl game but would be eligible for the Big Ten title game and possibly a spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff.
The Lions will be a player in all of those scenarios, but not in the way they (or the league) would have liked. Penn State won't win the conference or even its division, but it will ensure that the Big Ten doesn't get a semifinal berth after it knocks off Michigan State in the regular-season finale on Nov. 29.
MSU has the best chance of representing the Big Ten in the semifinals, but it needs to run the table. The Spartans will have locked up the East Division by beating Ohio State at home on Nov. 8, after which it will just be a matter of staying the course and not slipping up anywhere. Visiting Maryland and hosting Rutgers won't be where that happens; it will be on that final Saturday of the regular season in Happy Valley.
Ironically, this will mark the second year in a row Penn State costs the Big Ten some potential postseason prosperity. Last season its win at Wisconsin in the final week knocked the Badgers out of contention for a BCS at-large spot.
Michigan State Beats Minnesota in Title Game
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Both Michigan State and Ohio State made the BCS last season, but Michigan State's win over the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game knocked OSU out of the national title game. No such drama will surround this year's final at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis with the conference out of the running for the College Football Playoff.
Instead, East Division champ Michigan State and surprise West winner Minnesota will meet with bragging rights and a bid to either the Cotton, Fiesta, Orange or Peach Bowl.
Michigan State has won four straight over the Golden Gophers, including 14-3 in last year's regular-season finale. The Spartans will make it five in a row, and rather convincingly.
Ten Teams Will Go Bowling
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The Big Ten has nine automatic bids to bowl games, including at least one spot among the six bowls associated with the College Football Playoff. That's the same number of bids as a year ago, but with two more teams in the conference (as well as Penn State's return to postseason eligibility) the chance of the Big Ten failing to fill all of its bowl commitments as was the case in 2013 is very slim.
In fact, with only one Big Ten team likely to make the CFP lineup and 10 projected bowl-eligible teams this year, that would leave one school searching for an open slot in a bowl that had one of its affiliations fall through.
Here are our projections for Big Ten bowl appearances after the 2014:
- Cotton: Michigan State (vs. at-large)
- Capital One: Ohio State (vs. SEC)
- Holiday: Wisconsin (vs. Pac-12)
- Outback: Nebraska (vs. SEC)
- Music City: Iowa (vs. SEC)
- Pinstripe: Rutgers (vs. ACC or Notre Dame)
- San Francisco: Minnesota (vs. Pac-12)
- Quick Lane: Penn State (vs. ACC)
- Heart of Dallas: Northwestern (vs. Conference USA)
- x-Independence: Maryland (vs. ACC)
x-Maryland will take the spot normally given to an SEC team, because that conference won't have enough eligible teams to fill that slot.
All statistical information courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
