Alabama vs. Ole Miss: How Crimson Tide's Loss Reshapes Playoff Picture
The Ole Miss Rebels have created a College Football Playoff monster.
No. 3 Alabama paid the 11th-ranked Rebels a visit in Oxford, Mississippi, this Saturday, only to be turned away by senior quarterback Bo Wallace and a roster strong enough to weather the storm and make key plays with the game on the line.
ESPN Stats & Info provided some perspective shortly after the highlight of what turned out to be a chaotic week:
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
In short, the contest lived up to its billing and fit right in with the wild weekend as two powerhouses from what may very well be a historic SEC West, which entered the weekend with six of seven teams ranked 15th or better, put on a show that rattles the standings.
For reference, here is a look at how The Associated Press Top 25 looked before Saturday's SEC heavyweight bout:
| 1 | Florida State |
| 2 | Oregon |
| 3 | Alabama |
| 4 | Oklahoma |
| 5 | Auburn |
| 6 | Texas A&M |
| 7 | Baylor |
| 8 | UCLA |
| 9 | Notre Dame |
| 10 | Michigan State |
| 11 | Ole Miss |
| 12 | Mississippi State |
| 13 | Georgia |
| 14 | Stanford |
| 15 | LSU |
| 16 | USC |
| 17 | Wisconsin |
| 18 | BYU |
| 19 | Nebraska |
| 20 | Ohio State |
| 21 | Oklahoma State |
| 22 | East Carolina |
| 23 | Kansas State |
| 24 | Missouri |
| 25 | TCU |
Ole Miss came in confident, and who could blame them? A home game, a top-three defense and an opponent that has the looks of a weaker Nick Saban-led team than in years past all seemed to suggest a favorable outcome.
Before the game, defensive back Cody Prewitt went as far as mentioning the Crimson Tide seemed a weaker version compared to past iterations, as captured by FoxSports.com's Brandon Speck:
"We understand that we haven't played a team that's going to be as good as Bama. But we don't really think Bama is as good as they have been. And we're better than we have been. We're looking forward to getting to the game plan and really nailing down all the tweaks and stuff that we're going to have to put into Bama.
"
At first, it appeared Prewitt and his team were ill-advised to be so confident, as the team fell behind 14-3 by halftime. The back-breaking play that seemed destined to decide the defensive-minded affair was a Rebels fumble returned for a touchdown by Cyrus Jones with less than a minute left before the break.
But the Rebels fought onward. Wallace found Laquon Treadwell for a third-quarter touchdown on one of the prettiest throws the week as a whole had to offer. After an Alabama fumble late in the final frame, Wallace threw his second score—this time to Jaylen Walton—for the touchdown that put the game out of reach.
Wallace finished with 251 yards and three touchdowns, while the Ole Miss defense held Alabama to 396 total yards and a 6-of-16 mark on third downs.
The Rebels would have a scare with a blocked extra point, but an interception by coach Hugh Freeze's defense ended it and ruined everything we know about the inaugural CFP.
About that CFP.
Alabama was not the only team to take a dive on the weekend, as No. 2 Oregon suffered a 31-24 defeat at the hands of Arizona Thursday despite the best efforts of quarterback Marcus Mariota, who threw for 276 yards and two scores.
No. 4 Oklahoma got punched in the mouth via a 37-33 loss to No. 25 TCU, meaning the Big 12's part of the equation is also in great flux.
In other words, No. 1 Florida State is the lone survivor and sure thing in terms of the CFP at this juncture. Jameis Winston and the Seminoles took a trip to Wake Forest and got a 40-point win to reassure the nation that a recent close call at NC State was an anomaly.
So which teams do make the playoff?
Well, No. 5 Auburn is still alive for the time being, but a tough task lies ahead against No. 15 LSU. No. 6 Texas A&M was a strong candidate—keyword being was, as the wild Saturday seized the Aggies' playoff chances thanks to a 48-31 loss to No. 12 Mississippi State.
Desmond Howard put it best after the string of playoff-crushing upsets:
Thad Brown of WROC-TV brought up a good point, too:
No. 7 Baylor and No. 8 UCLA are very much a prominent part of the discussion now, too, despite either sloppy starts or cringe-worthy schedules. Do not sleep on No. 9 Notre Dame, either, as the Fighting Irish continue to roll behind the resurgent arm of Everett Golson, most recently picking off No. 14 Stanford, 17-14.
Alabama is unexpectedly a nice focal point for the woes of a top CFP contender that takes a dive in the thick of conference play. Things simply are not as simple for the Crimson Tide in the aforementioned stout SEC, as opposed to other conferences that are not as thick top to bottom.
Just a peek at the Tide's upcoming schedule suggests that much:
| Sat, Oct. 11 | at Arkansas |
| Sat, Oct. 18 | vs. Texas A&M |
| Sat, Oct. 25 | at Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov. 8 | at LSU |
| Sat, Nov. 15 | vs. Mississippi State |
| Sat, Nov. 22 | vs. Western Carolina |
| Sat, Nov. 29 | vs. Auburn |
Clearly running the table is a viable option to the playoff for the Crimson Tide, as it would knock off other contenders and upstarts that are one upset away from the playoff themselves in the process.
But really, the complexion of the playoff picture is going to morph drastically again in the coming weeks. All it takes is an Ole Miss or Mississippi State to shake things up, if not outright throw their names into the hat as well.
For now, here is how the CFP figures to shape up:
| No. 1 Florida State | 5-0 |
| No. 5 Auburn | 5-0 |
| No. 7 Baylor | 5-0 |
| No. 9 Notre Dame | 5-0 |
It is important to note that the CFP was designed in order to not end a team's season after just one loss. But for teams such as Alabama, a ridiculously difficult schedule now has little leeway for error.
Hey, who says the regular season does not matter?
Stats and information via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified. AP poll via The Associated Press.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
