Why Oklahoma Loss Is Good for Big 12's Chances at Playoff Berth

Oklahoma entered the week ranked No. 4 in the country and looked like the Big 12's best shot at making the College Football Playoff. Its 37-33 loss at TCU Saturday dealt a crippling blow to its own playoff hopes, which at first glance might suggest it did the same to the hopes of the entire league.

But that isn't necessarily the case.

Despite a chaotic string of turnovers in the fourth quarter, Oklahoma-TCU was for the most part a fantastically played game. Sharing a time slot with Notre Dame-Stanford, Alabama-Ole Miss and Baylor-Texas, it was a clear highlight of the early afternoon.

To wit, the outcome felt more like a TCU win than an Oklahoma loss. The Sooners didn't look like a Top Five team and CFP contender, but they didn't lose an unforgivable game. They were felled, on the road, by what appears to be a competent team. And for all we know, the Horned Frogs might be much, much more than that.

Before the season, the Big 12 appeared to be a two-horse race between Baylor and Oklahoma. The winner of their Nov. 8 matchup was supposed to be the overwhelming favorite to win the conference. But it was supposed to have to finish 12-0 to make the playoff.

Six weeks into the year, however, the Big 12 looks better than almost anyone predicted.

TCU entered the week ranked No. 18 in the country on the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders and is assured to make a big leap after beating Oklahoma. Oklahoma State is 4-1 with a close loss to the defending national champion. Kansas State is 3-1 with a close loss (in a game it should have won) against the national runner-up. West Virginia is 3-2 with close losses to Oklahoma and Alabama.

Those four, Baylor and Oklahoma are all legitimately good teams.

Eric Gay/Associated Press

The Big 12 has only 10 teams total. If six of its teams are legitimately good, that means 60 percent of the conference is legitimately good.

Especially given the early chaos of Week 6—a week where four of the Top Six and seven of the Top 18 teams in the country went down before 7 p.m. ET Saturday—it's hard to envision a world where a one-loss Big 12 champion doesn't make the playoff. Even a two-loss team with the right two losses might stand a chance.

On aggregate, that puts the Big 12 on relatively solid footing. If Kansas State beats Texas Tech Saturday evening, five of the conference's six best teams will have won in Week 6. Oklahoma's stock is trending down, but it would be imprudent to count the Sooners out.

And don't for a second dismiss this argument because you don't think TCU is for real. It is. Gary Patterson is one of the best head coaches in the country, and his team has not been as bad as its 11-14 record since joining the Big 12 in 2012. It has hung around with a lot of good teams; it just hasn't been able to break through.

This time—finally—the football gods were on its side.

Oklahoma will not free-fall too far in the polls after Saturday's loss. It should still find itself in the Top 15 or 20, as should TCU, Kansas State* and Oklahoma State. Baylor will be in the Top Five (my prediction: No. 3), and West Virginia will have a strong case to break the Top 25.

The Big 12 is in impeccable shape after six weeks of the season, even if its best team just went down. The jockeying and politicking that will accompany the CFP selections is difficult to forecast, so for now, the best thing a conference can do is play well from top to middle.

That's precisely what the Big 12 is doing.

*pending Saturday night's result against Texas Tech.