Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints: Week 5 Preview for New Orleans
The New Orleans Saints will attempt to rebound from their nightmarish performance last week against the Dallas Cowboys, as they play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.
New Orleans (1-3) has failed to live up to preseason expectations thus far, but this week’s home matchup gives it a chance to get back in the win column against a divisional opponent.
Standing in the Saints’ way is a Tampa Bay squad that got off to a dreadful 0-3 start but has since found its footing with an upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers last week on the road.
For the Saints, defense has been the real head-scratcher this season, as coordinator Rob Ryan’s unit was run completely over by a balanced Cowboys offense last week on Sunday Night Football.
Tampa Bay quarterback Mike Glennon doesn’t exactly pose the same passing threat as Tony Romo, but the Buccaneers offense showcased some genuine potency last week against the Steelers. The Saints' maligned secondary will have to up its play in a big way against the likes of Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy.
On the offensive side of the ball, New Orleans has put up respectable overall numbers for the season, although quarterback Drew Brees and Co. were bottled up for the majority of the game last Sunday night in Dallas. With his squad staring a 1-4 start right in the face, coach Sean Payton will likely be pulling out all the stops to get his offense rolling in this one.
Even though both the Saints and the Bucs enter the contest at 1-3, this game holds major implications for the rest of the season. The winner will still have a realistic shot at a playoff berth, while the loser will find itself at the bottom of a deep hole with little light at the top.
Following is a complete preview for this weekend’s NFC South matchup, with a score prediction on the last slide.
Week 4 Recap
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The Saints’ Week 4 trip to AT&T Stadium was quite the forgettable experience for Payton’s squad.
Dallas dominated New Orleans in every aspect of football last Sunday night, and the game finally came to a merciless end with the home team up, 38-17. The Cowboys marched 80 yards in 12 plays for a touchdown on their initial possession, and they never allowed the Saints a chance to get into the game.
Cowboys play-caller Scott Linehan concocted a deadly blend of run and pass to overwhelm the Saints’ outmatched defense. The New Orleans front seven was pounded by DeMarco Murray and the powerful Dallas ground game, while Romo distributed the ball to a host of receivers to pick apart the Saints secondary.
On the other side of the ball, the New Orleans offense was shut out for the entire first half, as the Cowboys took a shocking 24-0 lead into the locker room.
Brees was heavily pressured by the aggressive Dallas pass rush, and the high efficiency of the Cowboys offense forced the Saints out of their running game.
New Orleans finally came to life toward the end of the third quarter, but it was too little, too late, and the Saints went marching back home with an ugly loss.
News and Notes
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Byrd Done for Season
The Saints defense received a significant blow on Friday afternoon, as the team announced that free safety Jairus Byrd was done for the season with a knee injury and was placed on injured reserve (h/t ProFootballTalk's Mike Wilkening).
New Orleans inked the three-time Pro Bowler to a lucrative six-year deal this past offseason, and the team had high hopes that he would provide an upgrade over departed safety Malcolm Jenkins.
Byrd’s play was certainly not stellar thus far this season, but his talent for covering ground in the deep secondary was noticeable, and the Saints will certainly miss his presence in the lineup.
He’ll likely be replaced by Rafael Bush, who’s manned the nickel spot for the past two games.
Saints-Bucs Series
When the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, these two clubs naturally became rivals. While the intensity of the Saints-Bucs rivalry doesn’t equal that of the New Orleans-Atlanta Falcons feud, there's no denying that these two teams take great pride in beating one another.
The Saints hold the upper hand in the series by a 27-16 count, and their .627 win percentage against the Bucs is their second-highest against any opposing team.
New Orleans holds a 15-9 record against Tampa Bay in games played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, which is the site for Sunday's game. In the teams’ last meeting at the venue, the Saints blasted the Bucs, 42-17, last December to clinch a playoff spot.
Josh Hill Emerging
There weren’t many positives to draw from the Saints’ loss on Sunday night, but the continued progression of Josh Hill was perhaps one of them.
The undrafted second-year tight end out of Idaho State hauled in a touchdown pass for the second consecutive week against the Cowboys. After scoring on a 34-yard reception in the Saints’ Week 3 win over the Minnesota Vikings, he found the end zone again last week with a 12-yard touchdown catch at Dallas.
At 6’5” and 250 pounds, he provides Brees with a sizable red-zone target, and he also displays impressive athleticism as a receiver.
Hill, who played in 14 games as a rookie last season, has the potential to be a key contributor in the New Orleans offense going forward, as he continues to learn from veteran Saints tight ends Jimmy Graham and Benjamin Watson.
Injury Report
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While the aforementioned injury to Byrd takes center stage, New Orleans has no lack of injuries heading into this week's game.
Starting left tackle Terron Armstead suffered a concussion in the Dallas game, but he's been at practices this week and was limited in Thursday's workout.
Other players limited on Thursday include linebacker David Hawthorne (ankle) and cornerback Corey White (foot). The Saints would very much welcome Hawthorne's return to the lineup this week after missing the last two contests.
Linebacker Curtis Lofton (shoulder), cornerback Patrick Robinson (thigh) and tight end Benjamin Watson (groin) all fully participated in Thursday's practice.
Meanwhile, three other players have been held out of workouts all week. Center Jonathan Goodwin (neck), running back Mark Ingram (hand) and fullback Erik Lorig (ankle) all missed Wednesday and Thursday practices.
On a positive note, safety Marcus Ball, who's been out of action since early training camp with a hamstring injury, worked out on Wednesday and Thursday, although he was limited.
Injury report obtained via NewOrleansSaints.com.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Keenan Lewis vs. Vincent Jackson
The Saints secondary has been under fire for nearly the entire season thus far, and much of the criticism has been warranted.
Although the group was exposed again on Sunday by Dallas, No. 1 corner Keenan Lewis turned in his best performance of the season.
Matched up with Dez Bryant for much of the contest, Lewis limited the explosive Dallas wideout to just three catches and 44 yards. Bryant did break through with an 18-yard touchdown catch on Lewis late in the game, but for the most part, the New Orleans cover man had a nice outing against one of the game’s very best receivers.
Lewis’ performance should be encouraging to Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, who began to allow the New Orleans native to line up in single coverage against Bryant over the course of the game.
This week, the Bucs won’t trot out a receiver the caliber of Bryant, but they do have a capable scoring threat in Vincent Jackson. The sturdily built 6’5” wideout has found the end zone in each of Tampa Bay’s last two outings, and he hauled in the game-winning touchdown pass against the Steelers last week on a diving catch.
If Lewis can contain Jackson in single coverage, it will help the Saints in the deep secondary as they attempt to offset the loss of Byrd.
Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs vs. Gerald McCoy
This interior line battle should be one of the game’s most competitive matchups.
Gerald McCoy, who enjoyed the best season of his career last year after being drafted third overall by Tampa in 2010, has battled a hand injury for the past few weeks. The 2013 All-Pro returned to action against Pittsburgh a week ago and delivered a sack and a pass deflection, while acting as a disruptive force against the Steelers ground game.
When healthy, McCoy is one of the league’s best 3-technique defensive linemen, and while New Orleans could opt to double him at times, the Buccaneers will try to position him in one-on-one pass-rushing situations against the Saints guards.
Evans is one of the game’s top run-blockers, and he’ll likely draw McCoy more often than not. Grubbs, meanwhile, is a Pro Bowler in his own right, and he could also see face time with the talented defensive tackle on a number of snaps.
Whichever New Orleans guard draws the assignment will have his skills as a pass-blocker put to the test, and the Saints’ success through the air will partially depend on their ability to subdue McCoy on passing downs.
Saints X-Factor of the Week: Jimmy Graham
With eight catches for 86 yards and a touchdown, Graham finished last week’s contest as the game’s leading receiver. He didn't get rolling until the Cowboys had mounted a big lead, however, and the Saints would undoubtedly like to get him involved much earlier this week against Tampa Bay.
Bucs head coach Lovie Smith and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier are both strong proponents of the Tampa-2 defense, which is a system Graham has enjoyed great success against in the past.
With Buccaneer safety Dashon Goldson out with an ankle injury, according to The Times-Picayune's Katherine Terrell, Graham should be able to make a major impact in this important home contest for the Saints.
Prediction
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While New Orleans’ well-documented road woes continue to be problematic, the team’s home record through the last two seasons is a sparkling 9-0.
Granted, the Saints fans aren’t used to seeing their team dominated like it was at Dallas, but it’s safe to assume the Superdome will be rocking as usual come kickoff on Sunday.
Brees is likely to come out with an aggressive mindset in this one, and the Saints offense should be able to consistently push the ball down the field against a Tampa secondary that will be without its starting free safety.
Defensively, New Orleans should be highly motivated to exorcise the demons of Jerry World and deliver a strong performance against the 1-3 Bucs.
With an open date next Sunday, the Saints will be aiming to enter their bye week on a positive note, and they should come out on top in this one.
Prediction: Saints 27, Bucs 17
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