Is Luol Deng the Miami Heat's Biggest X-Factor for 2014-15 Season?
The Miami Heat were dealt a tremendous blow this offseason when LeBron James announced in Sports Illustrated he would sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
But Pat Riley and Co. responded about as well as they could while faced with such adversity. First, they came to an agreement with Chris Bosh. Then, they did the same with Luol Deng, who will replace James in Miami's starting lineup.
The bringing back of Bosh (and later Dwyane Wade) was critical, but the addition of Deng is why there's still reason for optimism in Miami even with LeBron in Cleveland.
With Deng, the Heat have a no-brainer top-10 small forward. With Deng, the Heat have a Big Three, albeit a worse one than it employed the past four years. With Deng, the Heat, believe it or not, have a shot to make a deep run in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Deng is this team's X-factor.
What could go right?
Deng can be Miami's defensive ace. As a lengthy and hardworking wing player, Deng was the star in Tom Thibodeau's defensive scheme as a member of the Chicago Bulls from 2010-2014.
Given coach Erik Spoelstra's similar affinity for defense, expect Miami to place a strong emphasis on that aspect of the game, making Deng a great fit.
He guards multiple positions, plays excellent team defense and can wear opponents out due to the high level of energy he exerts. In 10 years, he's totaled an impressive 33.7 defensive win shares.
Offensively, Deng isn't a star. But he's a more than capable scorer. Deng averaged 16.0 points per game this past season and has the same per-game average for his career.
Deng can get points in multiple ways. He can shoot from mid-range, do damage in post-up situations and create easy buckets for himself with off-ball cutting, to name a few of his skills.
With his offensive abilities, He could easily give Miami 15 points per night, which is all it really needs from him.
What could go wrong?
When he's out there, Deng is generally a great asset for whomever he's playing for. The problem for Deng: he's not always out there.
As Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote:
"Deng has suffered numerous injuries throughout his career and has missed 127 games in 10 seasons. Put another way, injuries have cost Deng about one game for every five he's played. He's not necessarily brittle, but that's a large chunk of lost time.
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More so than ever before, there should be concern about Deng's health. While 29 isn't typically old for a basketball player, Deng is an old 29.
Deng's played an absurd 24,235 minutes during his career, and his body is starting to wear down. There's certainly no guarantee he makes it through the 2014-15 season healthy.
Another result of the many minutes he's played, Deng's game has started to show some decline in recent years. Considering how important Deng is to the Heat, any further decline could be problematic for the team.
Also worthy of concern for Miami, Deng was not an efficient offensive weapon last season. En route to his 16 point-per-game average, he shot just 43.1 percent from the field and 30.2 percent from beyond the arc.
Check out his 2013-14 season shot chart below:
That efficiency simply won't cut it, and his lack of outside shot could prove to be an issue for this team. Both of the Heat's starting wing players (Wade and Deng) haven't shown themselves to be great three-point shooters, which is a big blow to the Heat's spacing.
The Heat need more efficient offensive production from Deng this year, and his 45.7 career percent shooting from the field and 32.9 career percent shooting from beyond the arc suggests that's possible.
What will happen?
The decision to sign Deng will ultimately be viewed as smart one.
Not surprisingly, one can expect a stellar defensive year from him.
Also, playing alongside more skilled offensive talents than he has in years past, Deng will be more efficient and be an effective third option on this team.
The spacing concerns are real, but Miami has other floor spacers, such as Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts, to lessen the problem.
There's certainly risk that Deng's body breaks down, but it's more likely that process occurs when he is, say, 31 or 32, than it does now, even considering the basketball mileage on him.
The Heat are going to stun many and remain one of the best teams in the East, and Deng will be a huge reason why.
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