Chiefs vs. 49ers: What Are Experts Saying About San Francisco?
The San Francisco 49ers welcome back former starting quarterback Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs to the Bay Area this Sunday in an important interconference matchup, and that has the usual gang of experts out in full force with their standard predictions and analysis.
After getting blown out by the Tennessee Titans in Week 1, the Chiefs have turned their season around. They hung with the Denver Broncos until the final minutes of their Week 2 matchup before turning in demonstrative wins over Miami and New England. This is a team on the rise somewhat.
The 49ers, of course, had a crucial victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last week to keep them in the thick of the playoff hunt. While their defense came to the rescue, the offense and special teams continued to sputter a bit. Can they get things going against the Chiefs, or will they fall out of the top rung of contenders with a loss?
Both teams find themselves at the moment on the outside looking in as far as the playoff race is concerned. San Francisco is looking up at the 3-0 Arizona Cardinals in the division, still have to play the Seahawks twice, and have a tough race for a wild-card spot. The Chiefs also have a pair of tough divisional opponents lounging above them in Denver and San Diego.
A loss for either team would remove their control over their own destiny, playoff-wise. It’s not quite a must-win game for either team, but it’s a crucial one for keeping pace.
Let’s take a quick look around the league and see what the experts are saying as the matchup approaches.
Seth Wickersham: Jim Harbaugh Comfortable in Chaos
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ESPN’s Seth Wickersham responded to the torrent of rumors coming out of San Francisco, indicating that there is tension between the 49ers locker room and Jim Harbaugh. His piece goes into depth about the personality and influences of the controversial coach.
“Many successful coaches can be jerks, of course. But in San Francisco, it's gotten strangely personal,” Wickersham writes, before talking about some of Harbaugh’s personality and quoting some of his former players and assistants. The quote that sticks out to me the most came from one of those ex-employees:
"He's not really a d---, but he does d--- things…I don't think he has any empathy. He has no way of putting himself in someone else's shoes. It's a strength and weakness. He just says, 'I've gotta move on with my life.'
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That seems to sum up Harbaugh to me. Harbaugh’s one of the more unique personalities in the game. He’s curt, prone to histrionics on the sideline—and one of the best coaches in the league.
I do think the 49ers can be successful both because and despite Harbaugh’s force of personality. He may be tough on his players—though if the stories about players being annoyed because they can’t listen to music on the plane is true, I question what their definition of “being tough” is—but he also has their backs to the very end. He takes a lot of the heat off of players like Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick by defending them to the utmost.
The 49ers might win the Super Bowl this year and give Harbaugh a massive extension, or they might crash and burn and send Harbaugh back to the college ranks. One thing’s for sure, though—it’ll always be interesting.
Kevin Patra: Alex Smith ‘Didn’t Have Any Regrets’ in Leaving 49ers
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Obviously, the biggest storyline coming into this week’s game is the return of Alex Smith to the Bay Area. Smith, who went 38-36-1 as a starter for the 49ers in one of the most turbulent periods of franchise history, has been saying all the right things about moving on from the club, as Kevin Patra of NFL.com relays a report from the per the San Jose Mercury News:
"I did feel like it was complete...I felt like we had rebounded, even if it took a lot longer than I ever thought. We got the organization back to where it needed to be and better than when I came in. So, yeah, I didn't have any regrets when I left.
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Patra compares Smith to Wally Pipp, the former Yankees first baseman who was replaced by Lou Gehrig due to either a headache or a concussion, depending on which version of the story you listen to. Like Pipp, Smith never got his starting job back with the team, thanks to being replaced by the superior talent in Kaepernick.
Also like Pipp, Smith has found success with a second club after being replaced. It was somewhat pleasing to see Smith become a Pro Bowler last season—his talent was always there, he was just constantly forced to start over thanks to the turmoil among offensive coordinators and head coaches during his tenure. When the 49ers finally got a stable organization with Harbaugh in 2011, Smith “suddenly” became a very solid quarterback—imagine that?
If San Francisco were to re-do the 2005 draft today, the 49ers would obviously take Aaron Rodgers over Smith, but Smith’s has developed enough now to justify being a first-round-caliber pick.
Paul Gutierrez: 49ers Not Missing Much with Cox at CB
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ESPN’s Paul Gutierrez takes a look at Perrish Cox, who has subbed for the injured Tramaine Brock ever since Brock went down in the season opener against the Dallas Cowboys. Gutierrez says that the 49ers haven’t “missed a beat” since Cox has taken over, as he’s established himself as a legitimate player on the outside.
He has a point. Cox has been playing lights-out this season; he’s been the 49ers best player in pass coverage. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), he’s allowed only 10 receptions on 24 targets, and his four passes defensed are just two off the league lead. He’s actually PFF's second-highest-rated cornerback, right behind Brandon Flowers in San Diego.
Cox’s performance over the last two games in particular has been exemplary, essentially shutting down Michael Floyd and Jeremy Maclin—a tall task, indeed. This stellar efforts seems to have come out of nowhere, as there’s nothing in Cox’s past history to say that he could play like this.
I had Cox pegged as a pure specialist coming into the season. I specifically said in my initial 53-man projection that the 49ers would “prefer not to have Cox in a key role in 2014." I think Cox has pretty definitively proven me wrong.
Cox has been better this year than Brock was last year, though Brock should still regain his starting role when he gets back. That moves Cox back into sub-packages on the inside, and that’s just going to help bolster the 49ers secondary.
Every year, someone surprises you, and Cox is that player this year.
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Can Inman: Former 49ers WR A.J. Jenkins to Start in Place of Donnie Avery
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Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News reports that former first-round bust A.J. Jenkins will see more playing time than expected against his old team, thanks to Donnie Avery’s sports hernia surgery. Jenkins is taking the news in stride:
"…I’m not worried about San Francisco. I’m trying to get my playbook right. But it is crazy how things work out. My first start will be against the team that traded me. Things happen for a reason. Unfortunately my best friend and one of my teammates went down, but I have to step in and be accountable.
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This will be Jenkins’ second start ever; he also got to start the last game of 2013, when the playoff-bound Chiefs rested their regular players.
Jenkins is one of the 49ers’ worst busts ever; he never caught a pass for the 49ers, despite being a first-round pick. The team swapped him for Kansas City’s 2011 first-round bust, Jonathan Baldwin, who caught three passes for San Francisco before being released. That’s right; the sum total of those first-round picks was three catches. That’s not good.
While a Smith-to-Jenkins touchdown pass would sting the 49ers, it’s also rather unlikely. Jenkins has been ineffective this season, and it was a bit of a surprise the Chiefs even kept him around for 2014. Facing Jenkins rather than Avery is definitely a plus for the 49ers, though it wasn’t like Avery was burning up the field when he was healthy.
Don Banks: The 49ers Don’t Know How Good They Have It
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We come back to taking about Harbaugh, as Sports Illustrated’s Don Banks compares the reported frustrations of 49er players with their coach to the state of the franchise of their cross-bay rivals.
The Oakland Raiders fired Dennis Allen after an 0-4 start, and Banks says that 49ers executives and fans should look towards that situation to realize how lucky they are to have a coach like Harbaugh:
"This seems like the perfect time to remind those unnamed 49ers—and anyone else who might be interested in Harbaugh’s demise in San Francisco—to be careful what they wish for. Because if they get it, it might just come with a return to what life was like before Harbaugh arrived from Stanford in early 2011.
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When I ranked coaches in San Francisco history this offseason, I put Harbaugh in third. Going through the list, you see some of the absolute disasters the 49ers have had to suffer with in the post-Steve Mariucci era. You had Dennis Erickson (whom I ranked 18th out of 18), Mike Nolan (14th), Mike Singletary (11th) and interim Jim Tomsula (ninth, thanks to a 1-0 record!). It wasn’t that long ago that the 49ers were a laughingstock.
Harbaugh’s a loose cannon, but he’s the best coach the 49ers have had since the days of Bill Walsh and George Seifert. It’s certainly preferable to have his particular brand of insanity rather than the troubles and trials of the Oakland Raiders.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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