Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: Keys for Each Team to Win ALDS Game 3

Since 2009, the team that won Game 1 of the ALDS has gone on to win the series at an 80 percent clip. Only twice—in 2011—has the team that lost the series opener come back to advance to the ALCS.

What are the numbers like when a team finds itself ahead two games to none?

If that wasn't bad enough for Detroit, Zach Helfand of the Los Angeles Times notes that only four of the 22 teams that have faced elimination in Game 3 since 1995 have been able to fend off their opponents and take the series in five games.

Can David Price, the third consecutive Cy Young Award winner that the Tigers will send out to the mound, keep Detroit's season alive for another day? Is three really the magic number? Or will the Orioles be celebrating their first trip to the ALCS since 1997 on Detroit's home field?

Let's take a look at the keys for each team to get the outcome it desires.

Keys For Baltimore 

Bullpen Must Keep Bending, Not Breaking

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Orioles relievers have been particularly effective through the first two games of the series, allowing only two runs over 9.1 innings of work. It's not that the Tigers aren't hitting them—Detroit is hitting .286 with a .629 OPS against the 'pen, which has a postseason-high 10 hits. 

But those relievers have been able to work out of jams, limiting damage and keeping the Orioles either in the lead or within striking distance.

Given the issues that Detroit's bullpen has had and how potent Baltimore's lineup is, more of the same out of the team's relievers should be enough to get the job done against a desperate Tigers club.

Get to David Price Early

Leon Halip/Getty Images

The earlier the Orioles can get to David Price, the earlier that they would get to Detroit's bullpen. The mere thought of that has everyone from Buck Showalter to the guy hawking peanuts down the right field line at Camden Yards all making the same incoherent sound.

But that's not the only reason why the Orioles need to start off with hot bats against the 2012 AL Cy Young Award winner. History tells us—especially recent history—that if you don't get to Price before the fourth inning, chances are that you're not going to get to him at all.

Innings	ERA	WHIP	Opp. BA	Opp. OPS
1-3 (2014)	4.54	1.29	.271	.739
4-6 (2014)	2.14	0.90	.216	.567
7-9 (2014)	2.66	1.01	.219	.603
1-3 (Career)	3.63	1.19	.236	.662
4-6 (Career)	2.79	1.11	.233	.644
7-9 (Career)	3.03	1.09	.226	.617

That's a pretty drastic improvement from the fourth inning on, which isn't good news for the Orioles. When it came to putting runs on the board in the first three innings in 2014, Baltimore ranked in the bottom third of baseball, tied with Arizona at 208 runs for 21st overall.

The good news for the Orioles?

In four career ALDS starts (all with Tampa Bay), Price is 0-4 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.

Keys For Detroit

Avoid the Bullpen As Long as Possible

Rob Carr/Getty Images

A word of advice for those who will be sitting in Detroit's dugout in Game 3: Disconnect the bullpen phone before things get underway. While it's not Jim Leyland but Brad Ausmus who will be reaching for the phone, we've seen this episode of baseball's postseason before, as noted by Peter Gammons:

"

And the Tigers have returned home down 2-0 to the Orioles, their bullpen line 3.2 (IP) 10 (H) 11 (R) 10 (ER) 3 (BB) 2 (K), their four year postseason ERA—yes, Max Scherzer, we’re going back to the David Ortiz and Shane Victorino homers—5.75.

"

For those wondering, that line works out to a 24.55 ERA and a 3.55 WHIP. Surely ugliness like that demands change on Ausmus' part, right?

"Wait and see what happens in the game Sunday. I invite you to come down and watch it," Ausmus told reporters, including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News when asked about whether he was going to stick with the status quo.

There should be no pitch count attached to Price in Game 3, and if he's dealing and looks strong, Ausmus has to leave him on the mound. Games like this are the reason the Tigers acquired Price, after all. 

But if and when Ausmus does have to lift Price from the game, his list of available options should be short: Al Alburquerque, Kyle Lobstein and Anibal Sanchez. That's it. The first two have yet to appear in the series, while Sanchez, who missed the final six weeks of the regular season due to injury, was held to only 30 pitches in Game 2.

"The command was there," Sanchez told Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press. "The speed on my fastball was there. I thought that I did everything that I could to help my team for those two innings. But they were looking at a certain number of pitches. Maybe if it was just a one-run game, maybe I came back out."

Now it's a one-game series. Ausmus has no choice but to go with Sanchez for an extended period of time. If he happens to re-injure himself, so be it—he'll have a long, cold winter over which to recuperate.

Exploit the Advantage on the Mound

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

With all due respect to Baltimore's Bud Norris, who had a career-best season for the Orioles (15-8, 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), he's simply not on the same level, talent-wise, as David Price.

He's also had, shall we say, some issues when it comes to facing Detroit's stacked lineup over the years, whether it be as a member of the Orioles or the Houston Astros.

Split	G	ERA	WHIP	IP	H	ER	BB/K
2014	2	6.39	1.26	12.2	14	9	2/9
Career	4	6.57	1.38	24.2	28	18	6/18
Career at Comerica Park	2	10.80	1.90	10.0	18	12	1/4

While Baltimore's bullpen is far more reliable than Detroit's, knocking Norris out of the game early should be something the Tigers aim to do. Chances are they've been waiting for another crack at the 29-year-old anyway.

Back in May, Norris and Torii Hunter got into it, with the benches (and bullpens) clearing after the veteran outfielder took a Norris fastball to the ribs immediately following a two-run shot by Ian Kinsler. 

There's no better way for the Tigers to exact their revenge than by running Norris from the first postseason start of his career early—and forcing the Orioles to play a Game 4.

Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.

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