MLB Playoffs 2014: Day 1 Schedule, Updated AL and NL Series Predictions

Following two Wild Card Games that couldn't have been more different in terms of drama, the 2014 Major League Baseball playoffs kick into gear on Thursday with both American League Division Series getting started in Baltimore and Los Angeles. 

The first game features two division champions in the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles. Both teams love to hit home runs but win on the mound in very different ways. The Tigers loaded up on power starting pitching this year while the Orioles utilize a solid starting corps and outstanding bullpen to win games. 

In the night cap, the Kansas City Royals are riding the high of that thrilling Wild Card Game victory over Oakland to take on the team with the best regular-season record, the Los Angeles Angels. This is a fascinating series simply because the Royals play such a unique style and the Angels' rotation is a mess. 

We've got a closer look at Thursday's games as well as some early predictions for the National League Division Series matchups that start on Friday. 

ALDS Day 1 Schedule	Date, Time (ET)	Network	Series Prediction
Detroit Tigers (Max Scherzer) at Baltimore Orioles (Chris Tillman)	October 2, 5:30 p.m.	TBS	Orioles win series in 5 games
Kansas City Royals (Jason Vargas) at Los Angeles Angels (Jered Weaver)	October 2, 9 p.m.	TBS	Angels win series in 4 games
NLDS Day 1 Schedule	Date	Network	Series Prediction
San Francisco Giants (Jake Peavy) at Washington Nationals (Stephen Strasburg)	October 3, 3 p.m.	Fox Sports 1	Nationals win series in 4 games
St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw)	October 3, 6:30 p.m.	Fox Sports 1	Cardinals win series in 5 games

ALDS Predictions

Tigers vs. Orioles

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Even though they don't win as many games in the regular season as we think they should, the Tigers are finally in their element. A short series in October is what general manager Dave Dombrowski has built this team to excel in, with power arms in the starting rotation and big bats in the middle of the lineup. 

In a year where no offense stood out, the Tigers were one of the few teams still capable of scoring runs. They finished second in the league with 757 runs, trailing only the Angels. One thing that got lost in the shuffle, though, is how other players stepped up in the wake of Miguel Cabrera's "down" season. 

Let's be clear—even in a lesser season by his standards, Cabrera still hit .313/.371/.524 with 25 home runs. That's just not what we've come to expect from this particular hitter. The biggest surprise in baseball this year was J.D. Martinez, who was released by Houston in spring training before landing in Detroit. 

The 27-year-old hit .315/.358/.533 with 23 home runs in 123 games for the Tigers. Combine that with a career-best season from Victor Martinez (.335/.409/.565), and Cabrera's down season doesn't stand out as much. 

Those of you who like to see drama in the late innings, J.D. Martinez has been incredible in the ninth inning, via Richard Justice of MLB.com:

Detroit's pitching staff doesn't have the same look it once did. Max Scherzer is still terrific and will get the Game 1 start in Baltimore, but Justin Verlander has been a shell of his former self all year, with his lowest strikeout rate since 2006, highest ERA and fielding independent pitching (FIP) since 2008 and lowest WAR since 2006, according to FanGraphs. 

Anibal Sanchez has been hurt and will be pitching out of the bullpen, at least in the division series, according to manager Brad Ausmus, via James Schmehl of MLive.com:

That might actually be to Detroit's benefit though it does weaken the rotation because Rick Porcello will be starting in what would presumably have been Sanchez's spot. 

All of this said, Baltimore is the pick to win this series because it's got a similar offensive philosophy to Detroit with a superior tactical manager and better bullpen. 

Gail Burton/Associated Press

The Orioles finished eighth in runs scored this season but led baseball with 211 home runs. They don't have the sexy horses in their rotation that Detroit does, but they do boast a lot of guys who chew up innings. While their starters lack the Tigers' ability to miss bats, they are a vastly superior defensive team. 

Detroit needs pitchers who can strike opponents out because the defense was 26th in FanGraphs' defensive rating and 28th in defensive runs saved. By comparison, Baltimore's defense finished second and third in those two categories.

It also doesn't hurt when you have Buck Showalter, who has proved himself to be one of the best bullpen managers in baseball, playing matchups late in games. Seeing the manager make so many pitching changes late in the game can get annoying for the audience, but there's a method to the madness. 

Showalter wasn't afraid to use his relievers during the regular season. The Orioles finished sixth in bullpen ERA (3.10) despite having to throw the eighth-most innings. He doesn't abuse those arms, either, as you can tell that most of the players have the same number of innings pitched as appearances. 

In the battle between a rookie manager and seasoned veteran, I will take the latter 10 times out of 10 in this particular matchup. It's going to be a close series because both teams have flaws that can be exposed by the other side. 

Ultimately, the Orioles have the deeper team, and that will be the key difference in the series. 

Orioles win series in five games.

Royals vs. Angels

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

This series is frustrating to pick because the holes on both sides are so pronounced that you can talk yourself out of loving either team. 

We saw the limitations to Kansas City's game in its Wild Card Game win over Oakland. The A's scored runs by hitting home runs and driving the ball. The Royals make a lot of contact, steal bases and play great defense. 

The Angels aren't slouches with the gloves, finishing seventh in FanGraphs' defensive rating, but the Royals were the best defensive team in baseball this year using the same metric. But what happens when you need a lot of runs in a hurry?

Give the Royals credit for coming back against Oakland, but the A's played a hand in that with wild pitches and poor routes on defense late in the game. Yet they aren't a bad matchup for the Angels because of how they play. 

As Ben Lindbergh of Grantland noted in his ALDS preview, the Angels allowed the fifth-most baserunning runs in baseball this season:

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The Angels, who are baseball's (distant) second-best baserunning team, aren't adept at slowing other clubs' legs; only four other teams allowed their opponents to rack up more Baserunning Runs (mostly through taking the extra base on batted balls). Historically, both Chris Iannetta and backup catcher Hank Conger have recorded slightly below-average caught-stealing percentages, but the Royals won't be able to take advantage of Jon "no-throw" Lester in this series, so don't expect them to run quite as wild as they did in the wild-card game.

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They are also going against an Angels rotation that doesn't have Garrett Richards or Tyler Skaggs, so it's Jered Weaver, Matt Shoemaker and C.J. Wilson. Wilson had an ERA of 4.51 and 85 walks in 175.2 innings. Even though the Royals don't walk, do you trust a guy who is issuing a free pass every other inning to succeed in October?

Jason Vargas isn't a No. 1 starter by any stretch, but he's been very successful by playing for teams in big ballparks with great defenses. With Danny Duffy (2.53 ERA) and James Shields behind Vargas, the Royals look to have the deeper rotation. 

Then there is the matter of Los Angeles' lineup. We look at Mike Trout, who can hide a lot of deficiencies, but this isn't a deep group. Trout was the only regular with an on-base percentage over .350. He, Kole Calhoun and Albert Pujols were the only regulars to slug .450 or better. 

If you're expecting Josh Hamilton to give the Angels anything in the playoffs, you will be sorely disappointed. This is a long way of saying that the American League is a mess right now. The Angels have the better team with the best player, so they should win. 

Hopefully, Mike Scioscia doesn't try to outmanage himself in this series. His knack for playing small ball drives you nuts when he has power hitters like Trout and Pujols in the lineup. Ned Yost showed his limitations in the Wild Card Game, which the Royals won despite their manager's best efforts to give it away. 

If this becomes a battle of the bullpens, despite what Yost showed on Tuesday, that is a huge advantage for the Royals. Wade Davis and Greg Holland combined to strike out 199 hitters in 134.1 innings while Kelvin Herrera, who allowed 54 hits in 70 innings, is going to touch 100 mph. 

It's going to be four close, low-scoring games, but the Angels will come out on top by virtue of their ability to hit more homers than the Royals. 

Angels win series in four games.

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