Ranking the Biggest Sleeper NBA Teams Entering 2014-15 Season
Following an intense and frantic summer of player movement, it feels like we may finally have a read on an NBA landscape that's undergone a considerable transformation.
But while all's calm now, it won't be for long.
The established contenders in each conference are fairly clear.
In the East, there's the Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers and reigning Atlantic Division champion Toronto Raptors. Out West, we have the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers.
Outside of those six teams, though, uncertainty reigns supreme.
That is why we're taking a crack at projecting which under-the-radar clubs have the best chance of exceeding expectations when the 2014-15 season gets underway.
In order to create a ranking system for the league's biggest sleepers, we used Las Vegas over/under win totals as a guide. As a result, you'll see an over/under projection at the top of each slide.
From there, teams were ranked based on the confidence we had in their ability to surpass the projected total, which is why you'll see a confidence interval listed directly below the over/under odds.
It's also important to note that the interval functioned on a classic 1-10 scale, with one representing the lowest amount of confidence and 10 equaling utmost confidence.
Honorable Mention: Detroit Pistons
1 of 11
Over/Under: 36.5
Confidence Interval: 2.5
The Detroit Pistons will have a hard time underachieving more than they did last season.
Considered a fringe playoff team in a diluted pool of Eastern Conference clubs a year ago, the Pistons failed to meet the modest expectations set for a franchise that hasn't qualified for the postseason since 2009.
The story's a bit different this year, though.
While the Pistons aren't a consensus contender for one of the East's final playoff spots, head coach Stan Van Gundy should promote a winning culture.
For a young team bursting with young (albeit raw) talent, that's all the Pistons can ask for during the first year of Van Gundy's tenure.
And after Detroit finished with a meager 29 wins last season, it's not unrealistic to think a team led by the rapidly evolving Andre Drummond could crack 37 wins.
Development will need to take place in several spots on offense, but as Van Gundy said (via NBA.com's Keith Langlois), Drummond already looks more polished in the post:
"I feel he’s gotten a lot (of touches) and his improvement has been tremendous, even from what I saw in Summer League practices and what we saw in workouts here. He’s taking his time, he’s patient, he’s making good, strong moves.
I think that he’s been terrific down there. With him getting postups in live situations on a regular basis, I think he’ll just continue to get better and better.
"
If Drummond capitalizes on more touches in a system that's predicated on heavy doses of inside-out action, he could post All-Star-caliber numbers in tandem with Detroit's rise.
10. New York Knicks
2 of 11
Over/Under: 40.5
Confidence Interval: 3
Following a tumultuous 2013-14 season under Mike Woodson, it's time for Phil Jackson and head coach Derek Fisher to assume control of the New York Knicks' reclamation project.
Despite producing 37 wins in a depth-deprived Eastern Conference, the Knicks have the talent necessary to crash the postseason party for the second time in three seasons.
"We believe that we're going to be a playoff team, and then we don't know how far we'll be able to go," Jackson told reporters, according to ESPNNewYork.com's Ian Begley. "We're hoping for the best."
Those hopes Jackson speaks of rest on improvement in all facets. And while the focus will be on New York's adaptation to the triangle offense, Fisher has stressed defensive improvement as the quickest way back to the postseason, according to Newsday's Al Iannazzone:
"Starting out and through the season there will be a lot of talk about who we are offensively and what we're trying to do on the offensive end in terms of running the triangle. But defense is the anchor. That's the foundation to all good and great teams. So we spent two- and-a-half hours on defense. We didn't do one triangle-specific drill of any kind today.
"
It's easy to forget, but the Knicks ranked 11th in offensive efficiency last season, but a negative net rating per 100 possessions plagued them due to a defense that ranked 24th.
If Fisher can instill a sense of defensive confidence in his rambunctious wings (who allowed opponents to shoot 37.1 percent from three last season), the Knicks could wedge their way into the postseason conversation.
9. Denver Nuggets
3 of 11
Over/Under: 40.5
Confidence Interval: 4
A 21-win decrease in year-over-year performance shot the Denver Nuggets into Western Conference purgatory last season.
While injuries hampered Denver's ability to compete for a playoff spot, it was lackadaisical defensive tendencies that facilitated the Nuggets' shift toward the bottom of the standings.
After finishing 21st in defensive efficiency last season (108.2 points per 100 possessions), head coach Brian Shaw is letting his team experiment with an array of concepts before narrowing things down, according to The Denver Post's Chris Dempsey:
"I want to see, if we play glue defense one day, how well we do with that, the next game be aggressive and switch, I'm going to try a lot of different things. With this team we have a lot of versatility and flexibility position-wise, and the luxury of trying to do some things that we weren't able to do last year.
"
As Shaw alluded to, Denver isn't short on depth—particularly in the frontcourt.
The problem is, while the Nuggets' big bodies are uber-athletic and downright menacing on the boards, they failed to act as an intimidating presence below the free-throw line. Specifically, Denver ceded 45.3 paint points per game, the sixth-most in the NBA, according to TeamRankings.com.
Fortunately, Shaw will have shot-blocker extraordinaire JaVale McGee back healthy, which should help take some pressure off of the undersized Kenneth Faried.
Factor in the return of scoring machine Arron Afflalo on the wing and a .500 record doesn't seem so far-fetched.
8. New Orleans Pelicans
4 of 11
Over/Under: 41.5
Confidence Interval: 4.5
The New Orleans Pelicans are the Western Conference's most polarizing team.
With Anthony Davis and a supporting cast that looks like it was constructed in NBA 2K's fantasy draft franchise mode, the Pelicans could shatter win-total projections en route to the franchise's first playoff berth in five seasons.
Here's the problem, though: Not since 2006 (Central Division) have all five teams in a division qualified for the postseason, and every Southwest Division club outside of New Orleans did so last year.
A healthy Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson stand to benefit a team that ranked 29th in threes attempted last season. Additionally, the arrival of Omer Asik should aid a club that ranked 23rd in opponent's field-goal percentage at the rim, according to NBA.com.
Unfortunately, this still feels like a team that wasn't formulated with chemistry in mind. The names look great on paper, but it's easy to wonder if cohesion can occur at a pace agreeable with a climb up the standings.
As the over/under projection indicates, progress is seemingly inevitable. The scope of that growth, however, remains to be seen.
A 42-40 record would hardly represent a major surprise, but with so many unknowns lingering, it's hard to rank New Orleans above more proven qualifiers.
7. Brooklyn Nets
5 of 11
Over/Under: 41.5
Confidence Interval: 5
According to Paul Pierce, the Brooklyn Nets aren't in prime position to contend this season.
"Brooklyn's been, or New Jersey, Brooklyn, they're a franchise that's going in a different direction; I think," Pierce told NBA.com's David Aldridge. "They said they wanted to cut costs; they felt like they weren't going to be a contender. Right now, they're kind of in the middle right now."
However, cost-cutting and contending aren't mutually exclusive, especially when discussing a Nets team replete with superstars.
The All-Star-caliber triumvirate of Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson is enough to keep Brooklyn in the playoff picture and then some.
Yes, losing Pierce and Shaun Livingston will hamstring head coach Lionel Hollins' ability to get creative with smaller lineups, but this certainly isn't a team lacking depth.
And as NBA.com's John Schuhmann notes, Kevin Garnett can still function as a reliable defensive component in his 20th season.
"Though he was, at times, a liability offensively last season, Garnett was still a plus defender and actually led the league in defensive rebounding percentage," Schuhmann wrote. "And he still has plenty to offer in terms of leadership."
With a few lethal scorers and a nice blend of complementary role players coming off the bench, the Nets are staring at a golden chance to prove detractors wrong and match last season's win total (44), despite rumblings of an imminent decline.
6. Charlotte Hornets
6 of 11
Over/Under: 45.5
Confidence Interval: 6
Following a 43-win season during Steve Clifford's first run as head coach, the Charlotte Hornets figure to rank among the Eastern Conference's most improved teams this season.
While the league's fifth-ranked defense propped Charlotte up throughout the 2013-14 season, the Hornets recognized offensive improvements needed to be made in order to achieve upward mobility.
That is where the additions of Lance Stephenson and Marvin Williams come into play.
Williams provides Charlotte with a modified stretch 4 who can deflect attention away from Al Jefferson, and Stephenson gives the Hornets a legitimate second ball-handler capable of creating off the dribble.
“[Coach Clifford] wants me to come off screens, he wants me to be more of a scorer. A little bit of the same stuff I was doing with the Pacers, but more,” Stephenson said, according to Sporting News' Dane Carbaugh.
And if last season was any indication, expect Stephenson to attack the rim forcefully. With the Indiana Pacers, 42.3 percent of Stephenson's field-goal attempts came in the restricted area, and he converted a gaudy 67.4 percent of them, according to NBA.com.
Having that sort of aggressive presence in the pick-and-roll figures to add a much-needed dimension to Clifford's offense.
But what stands between the Hornets tacking a few wins on to last season's total and becoming a conference title contender is outside shooting.
As a team, Charlotte knocked down just 35.1 percent of its threes last year (No. 23 overall) and did very little to ease concerns that the offense can only thrive below the free-throw line.
What's worse: Outside of Gary Neal and rookie P.J. Hairston, the Hornets are ill-equipped to keep pace with high-powered offenses from deep.
Unless a few of Charlotte's overlooked wings have midseason epiphanies from beyond the arc, it's the defense that'll need to stem the tide in order to thrust Buzz City further up the conference ranks.
5. Phoenix Suns
7 of 11
Over/Under: 42.5
Confidence Interval: 7
Were the Phoenix Suns one-year wonders? Well, that's what an over/under of 42.5 indicates they may be labeled come season's end.
While regression would be understandable for such a young team, the Suns concocted an epic offensive formula last season that stood the test of an 82-game slog.
The league's eighth-most efficient offense, Phoenix torched opponents by embracing undersized lineups that relied on a healthy mix of speed and outside shooting.
And it was point guard Goran Dragic who led that way.
In charge of a prolific backcourt, Dragic showed up his contemporaries in a number of ways last season, according to Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes:
"Last season, Goran Dragic shot 50.5 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from beyond the arc, which put him in a very exclusive club among NBA guards.
Which is to say he was the only one in it, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Wall, Lillard, Irving, Lowry and Beverley all posted lower PERs than Dragic in 2013-14, and neither Westbrook nor Rose played enough games to qualify.
And while the fact that Phoenix didn't make the postseason might seem like a handy argument to leverage against him, Dragic should actually get credit for leading his team to as many wins (48) as Lowry (48) and more than Wall (44).
"
After nearly crossing the 50-win threshold last season, Phoenix is in prime position to leave fellow up-and-comers such as Denver and New Orleans in the dust.
4. Washington Wizards
8 of 11
Over/Under: 49.5
Confidence Interval: 7.5
The Washington Wizards' massive 15-win improvement last season transformed expectations in a flash.
While they may sit a tier below the Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlantic Division favorite Toronto Raptors, Washington has the look of a squad ready to surge even further in the positive direction.
However, it is worth considering this tidbit from CBS Sports' Matt Moore regarding Washington's relatively futile recent history:
"The Wizards have won 50 or more games only five times in their history, all in the late '60s and '70s. 45 wins is the most they've had since 2000. It's a six-game jump from last season, which doesn't sound like much but they play in a very tough division (Charlotte, Miami, Atlanta), and they have some real injury concerns.
"
As things stand, John Wall and Bradley Beal comprise what's arguably the league's best backcourt (just don't tell Dion Waiters I said that), and Randy Wittman has proved capable of coaching up a defense that ranks among the league's most stout.
And while it's fair to consider the loss of Trevor Ariza a detriment to Washington's perimeter defense, newcomer Paul Pierce is hardly a slouch on that end.
In fact, the Brooklyn Nets were a monstrous 7.1 points better per 100 defensive possessions with Pierce on the floor last season, according to NBA.com. While the situations clearly differed, it's worth noting the Wizards were 3.7 points better per 100 defensive possessions with Ariza on the court, per NBA.com. So perhaps those concerns are being overblown just a touch.
As Moore notes, it'll take a six-win improvement from last season for the Wizards to best a lofty over/under projection, but after a fruitful offseason that produced sorely needed depth in the frontcourt, Washington looks like one of the few Eastern Conference clubs capable of kicking down the 50-win door.
3. Memphis Grizzlies
9 of 11
Over/Under: 48.5
Confidence Interval: 8.5
Whether it's the slow, deliberate style of play or the lack of a conventional superstar, the Memphis Grizzlies are continually discounted as a true contender.
While peers such as the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder or Los Angeles Clippers sit in a more elite tier, the Grizzlies have perfected a formula that keeps them competitive year in and year out.
Just look at last season: Despite missing reigning Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol for 22 games (including the entire month of December), Memphis was able to post a 21-9 record after the All-Star break, win 50 games and nab the conference's No. 7 seed.
But I get it: In a loaded Southwest division that boasts the defending champions and fringe title contenders such as the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks, it's easy to overlook the Grizzlies.
Aesthetically, there aren't many teams less appealing to the eye than Memphis. They played at the league's slowest pace last season and shot the fewest threes. In other words, the Grizzlies took common statistical convention, balled it up and tossed it in the trash.
And yet, they still managed to rank right at the league average in terms of offensive efficiency.
With a top-10 defense, the perennially underrated trio of Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph and shooters Vince Carter, Quincy Pondexter and Courtney Lee fortifying the perimeter, the Grizzlies are a real threat to further complicate a stacked Western Conference.
2. Atlanta Hawks
10 of 11
Over/Under: 40.5
Confidence Interval: 9
Whatever you do, don't sleep on the Atlanta Hawks.
Just think back to last season.
Despite winning 38 games, Atlanta nearly upset the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals, pushing the Central Division champions to a decisive seventh game.
But now that the Charlotte Hornets, Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards have all emerged as trendier picks to shake up the conference playoff picture, the Hawks have been largely forgotten.
That is a real shame, because a healthy Al Horford could propel the Hawks into the middle of the postseason pack.
After appearing in 29 games last season, Horford was sidelined for the duration by a torn pectoral. And while the injury derailed the Hawks' plans to climb even higher up the conference ranks, his fit in Mike Budenholzer's spread attack was undeniable.
With Horford on the court, Atlanta posted a net rating of plus-3.7 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com, which represented a 5.7-point-per-100 improvement from his time off the court.
Considering the Hawks ranked second in three-pointers attempted last season and knocked down nearly 62 percent of their shots within five feet when Horford was on the floor, Budenholzer's club could feasibly surpass last season's win total by six or seven games.
1. Miami Heat
11 of 11
Over/Under: 43.5
Confidence Interval: 9.5
Reigning conference champions are rarely labeled sleepers, but the Miami Heat represent an exception.
Following four straight trips to the NBA Finals, Miami finds itself classified as a middle-class Eastern Conference club, excluded from the exclusive title discussion dominated by the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers.
And as the over/under projection indicates, prognosticators believe the departure of LeBron James could result in a 10-win dip when the regular season comes to a close.
But color me skeptical.
Miami still has a dynamic superstar pairing in Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, and it did well to surround them with capable veterans in Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts and Danny Granger.
It's certainly not sexy to pick a James-less Miami to finish above the likes of Washington, Toronto or Charlotte, but as one NBA coach told Sports Illustrated's Lee Jenkins, “They won’t be what they were, but they could still be top three or four in the East."
So while they may not be a 54-win team come season's end, battle-tested veterans and the elite coaching mind of Erik Spoelstra should propel the Heat to unforeseen heights.
All win total odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.
