San Francisco 49ers: Preparing for Their Old Friends, Alex Smith and the Chiefs

When the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs roll into town to play the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, it will be a homecoming for a former first-round pick who, while never quite having lived up to the lofty status bestowed upon him by his draft selection, has found new life in a Chiefs uniform.  That’s right, A.J. Jenkins is coming home.

Now that I’ve become the 275th columnist to make that joke, let’s talk about Alex Smith for a moment.  There was a point when Smith was considered one of the biggest busts in NFL history, but then Jim Harbaugh came along and helped turn Smith’s career around.  Since his first season with Harbaugh, Smith has put up his three best seasons ever in terms of completion percentage—he hasn’t dropped below 60.6 percent.

MARCIO JOSE SANCHEZ/Associated Press

Of course, the talent was always there with Smith—we saw it in his second season in the league, when he put up very respectable numbers under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Norv Turner.  He put up arguably his best pre-Harbaugh numbers, going 257-of-442 for 2,890 yards and 16 touchdowns, and looked to be on the path to developing into a solid player.

However, the turmoil that surrounded the 49ers’ organization in those days really stunted his growth.  Smith had to deal with a different offensive coordinator in every season pre-Harbaugh: Mike McCarthy in 2005, Norv Turner in 2006, Jim Hostler in 2007, Mike Martz in 2008, Jimmy Raye in 2009 and Mike Johnson in 2010.  Having to learn so many new systems, starting from scratch every year, would stunt almost any quarterback’s growth.

Then you had the high-profile conflicts with coaches.  You had the epic battles between Mike Nolan and Smith, where Nolan refused to acknowledge the severity of Smith’s shoulder injury.  You had players taking sides in the locker room in a Mike Singletary versus Smith conflict.  Then, you had Smith losing his job due to injury in the Jim Harbaugh era.  With coaches like that, it’s a miracle that Smith has developed into a borderline Pro Bowl quarterback.

While Harbaugh’s decision to stick with Colin Kaepernick over Smith was the right one—Kaepernick, for all of his flaws, is the more talented player—you still had to feel bad for Smith, who got replaced right when he was stepping into his own. 

Seeing him succeed in Kansas City and be named to the Pro Bowl was still a good feeling; here was a player who had to deal with a ton of issues finally getting some recognition.  While he’ll never be the top quarterback in his draft class—that would be Aaron Rodgers—he’s developed into a solid starter.  He’s not the guy who will take you to the Super Bowl single-handedly, but he won’t hold you back if you have the talent around him.

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The rough draft for this article then continued into “and that’s why it’ll be sad when the 49ers crush the Chiefs this week."  That, of course, was written before the Chiefs turned Tom Brady’s Patriots into a punching bag, crushing them to the tune of 41-14 on Monday night.  All of a sudden, the Chiefs come in riding a two-game winning streak, with multiple offensive weapons.

Jamaal Charles is back from injury, rotating with Knile Davis to put up nearly 200 yards on the ground against New England.  Anthony Sherman is one of, if not the best fullback in the game, paving the way for the backs.  They’ve also got Travis Kelce, who has come out of nowhere to become a huge threat at the tight end position.  Combine that with a pair of really good linebackers in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, and you have the makings of a very solid team.

The oddsmakers don’t see it that way, though, making the 49ers 7.5-point favorites, according to OddsShark.  The fact that the Chiefs got blown out by the Titans in Week 1 still hovers over the team, but since then, they’ve been a lot better.  They played the Broncos tight down to the wire, had a fairly comfortable win over Miami and then crushed the Patriots.  Surely they’re better than their record, right?

It’s quite possible, but I still think the 49ers will come out on top in this one.  The 49ers went back to their formula last week and earned 218 rushing yards—and that’s something the Chiefs can give up.  Kansas City currently ranks 19th in rushing yards allowed per game, at 116.5.  Just two weeks ago, Lamar Miller ran for 108 yards against them; they are thoroughly average in that department.  While another 200-yard day is a lot to ask for, it’s easy to imagine Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde and Colin Kaepernick running wild.

Ben Margot/Associated Press

You also have the defense coming off of their best performance of the season.  They’re holding opposing teams to 69.8 rushing yards per game after shutting down LeSean McCoy last week; it’ll be definitely an interesting matchup watching Jamaal Charles try to run against this front seven.  I think the advantage goes to the 49ers there, too.

If the Chiefs are going to win, they’re going to have to do it through the air, which brings us back to Alex Smith.  San Francisco fans are familiar with Smith’s strengths and weaknesses—he doesn’t turn the ball over, but he’s not going to single-handedly will his team to victory with aerial fireworks.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Smith has been the fifth-most accurate quarterback in the NFL this season—one slot below Colin Kaepernick.  This is because Smith simply does not throw the deep ball.  Kaepernick has thrown 16 of his 124 passing attempts more than 20 yards down the field, while Smith has only eight shots on 128 attempts.  Kaepernick’s average pass attempt goes 4.5 yards through the air; Smith’s is only 3.0 yards.

In other words, Alex Smith is still Captain Checkdown.  He’s arguably the best in the league at it, finding his receivers on short routes that give them plenty of room for yards after the catch, but if the Chiefs find themselves trailing, he’s unlikely to be able to lead a quick-strike aerial attack like the 49ers struggled with against the Bears.

I see the 49ers forcing the Chiefs into situations where they have to air the ball out, and I don’t think they have the receivers to win battles in the secondary.  If the 49ers can keep Jamaal Charles in check like they did with LeSean McCoy, no amount of redemption narrative will give Kansas City a victory here.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, Kansas City 17

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.