Despite Big Changes, L.A. Lakers' End Result Will Be Same This Season
Despite a new coach, an infusion of experienced (yet flawed) veterans and the return of a healthy Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash, this Los Angeles Lakers season won’t be much better than the last one. In fact, it may be worse.
The new coach is Byron Scott, a retread with long-time ties to the organization. He hasn’t had much success on the bench in nearly a decade. The notable additions are Jeremy Lin, Carlos Boozer, Julius Randle (a rookie), Ed Davis and Wayne Ellington. None of them are known for their defensive ability.
Bryant, the savior, is 36 years old and physically unreliable, coming off two major surgeries on his lower body. It’s impossible for him to rekindle the skill he had 10 or even five years ago, and doubtful he’s ever able to replicate the high-usage production he displayed during the 2012-13 season.
Nash isn't any younger (40 years old) and has only appeared in 65 games over the past two seasons.
Things aren’t rosy in Los Angeles, and the level of competition in the Western Conference makes it hard to envision anything beyond a trip to the lottery. Now that expectations are on the table, let’s look at some tactical changes we might see from the Lakers this season.
Under Mike D’Antoni last year, the Lakers were one of the fastest teams in the league, a mess of three-pointers, rim runs and tattered defensive effort. They finished second only to the Philadelphia 76ers in pace, averaging 100.98 possessions per 48 minutes. There’s nothing wrong with playing fast and unleashing an up-tempo offense, but half of Los Angeles’ possessions last season appeared to lack structure.
This wasn’t the “Seven Seconds or Less” Phoenix Suns D'Antoni and Nash were once associated with years ago. The personnel might have needed a more traditional approach. Only seven teams launched more threes per 100 possessions than the Lakers, but despite the constant attack and bombs-away attitude, L.A. finished 21st in offensive rating.
This year, under Scott and with a revamped roster, the Lakers should look to take things down a notch. Long a proponent of the Princeton Offense, Scott will institute a more formulaic half-court attack, based on off-ball cuts and screens. There will be movement, rare isolation and the opportunity for bigs like Boozer to direct traffic (and make use of their passing ability) from the top of the key.
It’s unclear whether Scott’s system will be a perfect fit for L.A.’s perimeter players (Lin and Nash are primarily pick-and-roll operators who make/made their living in transition). But age is definitely a factor, too. Here’s what Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak told reporters during the team’s media day, per ESPNLA.com:
""I think a big degree of our success will be if those three guys can stay healthy. For me, a lot of our success this year is going to rely on Steve and Kobe and Carlos. We have three proven veterans. We have other veterans. Jeremy [Lin] is a veteran. Jordan Hill is a veteran. Those are our three most accomplished veterans. They will have to stay healthy and play their best for us to be the best team we can be."
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Lakers coach Byron Scott has talked about restricting Bryant's and Nash's minutes at times this season, especially during back-to-back games, and Kupchak said such decisions would be entirely up to Scott.
""I think there will be management of players' minutes whether it's based on age or injury. I'm not sure what that's going to be. That's going to be up to Byron. We may discuss it during training camp but really it's going to be up to Byron. I do know Kobe wants to play, I do know Steve wants to play, so that will be a challenge in itself. If there is some mandate to restrict minutes or games, hopefully the players will understand and will work with Byron on it."
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The Lakers were a terrible defensive team last season, but not bad enough to the point where they won’t be even worse this year. L.A. allowed a league-high 31.9 attempts in the restricted area per game, with opponents shooting 62.9 percent (the fifth highest mark). The sheer volume is in part due to the fast pace at which they played, but it's still an atrocious mark.
This year, with no perimeter defenders, (the addition of Lin along with the re-insertion of a healthy Nash and Bryant is far from an upgrade), and the absence of any rim-protectors whatsoever, there’s a good chance the team’s interior defense dips even lower, even if they slow things down.
Given the pessimistic uncertainty on both ends of the court, it might be better for the Lakers to focus on the 2015-16 season and beyond. This means making sure Julius Randle is getting consistent playing time and receiving plenty of opportunity as a legitimate offensive option.
It's unlikely, given the team's summer acquisitions and delusional approach to team-building, but the Lakers won't be good this year. If everyone stays healthy (which is unlikely), and this team's absolute potential is reached, they still won't make the playoffs.
The on-court changes from last year could be noticeable, but the end result will likely be the same.
All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
Michael Pina covers the NBA for Bleacher Report, Sports on Earth, FOX Sports, ESPN, Grantland and elsewhere. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelVPina.
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