MLB Playoff Schedule 2014: Preview, Predictions for Each ALDS Series

With a few bunts—OK, a lot of bunts—and an act of heroics from Salvador Perez, the Kansas City Royals erased nearly three decades of futility and finalized the participants in this year's American League Division Series.

The other side of the bracket will be decided later Wednesday when the San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates tussle near the three rivers. But looking a few hours in the future is for the birds. Let's go big or go home here and take a look at the next couple weeks in the American League.

The Royals' prize for their first playoff win since 1985 is a meeting with the Los Angeles Angels, who became the indestructible force this season that many expected last. Los Angeles added 20 wins to its 2013 total to earn home-field advantage through the AL playoffs and boasts an up-and-coming youngster by the name of Mike Trout. You may have heard of him. 

The Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles have been preparing for one another for a while. Their matchup has seemed mostly inevitable for most of September, though Kansas City was able to keep pace within a game of Detroit's lead in the AL Central.

Detroit and Baltimore are both led by slugging lineups and pitching staffs with their fair share of foibles—albeit the Tigers' coming in the bullpen and Orioles' in the rotation.

Neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox are in the ALDS for the first time in more than two decades. It'll be interesting to see if these matchups live up to their on-paper hype enough to move the ratings needle. Let's take a quick look at both series and find out.

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles

Game	Matchup	Date	Time (ET)	TV
1	Tigers at Orioles	Thurs., Oct. 2	5:37 p.m.	TBS
2	Tigers at Orioles	Fri., Oct. 3	TBA	TBS
3	Orioles at Tigers	Sun., Oct. 5	3:45 p.m.	TBS
4*	Orioles at Tigers	Mon., Oct. 6	TBD	TBS
5*	Tigers at Orioles	Wed., Oct. 8	TBD	TBS

Paper talent says the Tigers win this series. David Price gives Detroit three top-of-the-rotation aces along with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, and I'm sure no one needs to be told the importance of pitching in the postseason. 

Scherzer, who will be arguably the best free agent on the market this winter, will start Game 1.

The flame-throwing righty was nearly as good at every single peripheral category in 2014 as he was during his Cy Young-winning 2013 except one: luck. His BABIP soared to a career-high .315, which helps account for his higher than expected (but still very good) 1.18 WHIP.

Control problems that plagued the beginning of his career remain a thing of the past, and there is very little reason to believe he'll be any worse than the past two postseasons.

"Every pitch in the playoffs is crucial," Scherzer recently told reporters. "It's so huge. … So whatever game I do get into, I just know you have to be at your best. You have to bring your A-game. There is no other way to script it, because the moment you give these guys an inch, they hit it a mile. It only counts even more in the playoffs."

Verlander will start Game 2, a decision that will not lack in coverage if it backfires on Brad Ausmus. The 2011 American League MVP went 15-12 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, his worst numbers in more than a half-decade. His struggles are at a much deeper level than they were at this time in 2013, when some in Detroit theorized Verlander would be better out of the bullpen.

The 31-year-old responded with a dynamite postseason in which he allowed one run and struck out 31 batters over his three starts. In a similar fashion he ramped up his performance down the stretch of the regular season, allowing two runs over his final 15.1 innings.

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Might another September renaissance be upcoming? Ausmus apparently thinks that's the case.

"I looked at those numbers and you can look at numbers against a team," Ausmus told reporters. "But let's be honest, the turnover in team rosters is so significant now these days that a pitcher's record versus one team over the past six years has very little bearing on the team he's facing today."

Price, who came over in a deadline deal from Tampa Bay, pitched only one game against his former division rival in 2014. He gave up three runs and nine hits in five innings. Verlander was 1-1 in his two starts against the O's, giving up seven runs in 14 innings.

The Detroit rotation will face a Baltimore lineup far different than the one it expected to have in spring training. Chris Davis is suspended. Manny Machado and Matt Wieters are injured. Unearthed gem Steve Pearce and Nelson Cruz, who was treated as if he had some sort of disease during free agency last winter following his suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, have kept the team afloat.

Despite injuries to three of their four best players, Baltimore won 96 games and had the AL's second-best offense in terms of wins over replacement. Orioles hitters finished third in slugging percentage, first in home runs by a mile and tied for the second-highest fly-ball rate in baseball—right in tune with two of the league's most analytics-friendly clubs (Athletics, Cubs).

That should be no surprise given Dan Duquette's presence in the front office. Nor should the Orioles ranking third in defensive runs saved, which is by far the most under-covered aspect of this team given its so-so pitching.

The Orioles' starting rotation ranks 19th in wins above replacement: not exactly the stuff of a team that had the second-best record in baseball. The starters' FIP tied for the third-worst in baseball behind only the lowly Rockies and Red Sox.

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Here is where the difference between the likes of Machado and Ryan Flaherty make the most difference. Machado is arguably the best defensive third baseman on the planet when healthy. Flaherty is an OK second baseman playing out of position at the hot corner. Caleb Joseph has done a fine job in place of Wieters but is still a downgrade.

The playoffs are where these downgrades—ones that can be accounted for over the 162-game grind—become glaring problems. The Tigers, if they stay out of their own way and continue to get the resurgent Miguel Cabrera of September, should have enough firepower to pull this out.

Prediction: Tigers in Four

Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels

Game	Matchup	Date	Time (ET)	TV Info
1	Royals at Angels	Thurs., Oct. 2	9:07 p.m.	TBS
2	Royals at Angels	Fri., Oct. 3	9:37 p.m.	TBS
3	Angels at Royals	Sun., Oct. 5	7:37 p.m.	TBS
4*	Angels at Royals	Mon., Oct. 6	TBD	TBS
5*	Royals at Angels	Wed., Oct. 8	TBD	TBS

We go from discussing to one of the most analytics-friendly organizations in baseball to the man who nearly gave every stathead a heart attack Tuesday night. Ned Yost, our bunt king. Our bunt buddy. Our buntiful best friend. Our buntifactor of roughly 500,000 bunt-related puns over the last 24 hours.

Just about everything the Royals did in their thrilling 8-7 win over Oakland was an affront to the numbers. Sacrifice bunts, long exposed as inefficient. Sliding into first base, samesies. Yet Kansas City did both—the former with regularity and the latter as part of a failed 10th-inning rally—to success Tuesday.

As Ben Lindbergh of Grantland pointed out this week, the Royals are a playoff team that thrives on confounding analysts. They don't walk, they don't hit home runs and their 94 wRC+ was the worst of a playoff team in more than a half-decade. Kansas City dinks and dunks and scraps and singles its way to wins, so it's no surprise it won five more games than its Pythagorean expectation.

"You never give up, you never say die, you never roll over no matter how big a lead is—it's never insurmountable, especially in the playoffs," pitcher Danny Duffy told reporters, offering what should be the mission statement for this club.

The Royals find themselves in a spot where it's going to take a whole lot of ingenuity and guile to advance. The Angels morphed into a cyborg over the second half, blowing a talented A's team out of the water to win the AL West by 10 games. 

Nothing about this roster screams fluke. Los Angeles' plus-143 run differential is the best of any remaining postseason team, 116 better than the team it will be facing come Friday. The Angels scored the most runs in baseball, were second in WAR for hitters and finished behind only the Tigers in wRC+—that pesky advanced stat at which the Royals fared so poorly. 

Pitching-wise the Angels are a little more top-heavy but have a solid enough three-man rotation. Jered Weaver, he of the eight seasons in nine with an ERA under 4.00, will get the start in Game 1. Weaver's underlying stats point to someone who should have had a far worse season in 2014, but that's become par for the course. The former Long Beach State star has pitched more than a half run under his FIP each of the last five seasons.

ANDY KING/Associated Press

Because of the season-ending injury to Garrett Richards, the Angels hope Matt Shoemaker's regular-season ascent is not undone by October baseball. Shoemaker, a 28-year-old rookie who had long ago seemingly been consigned to a life in the minors, went 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA as undoubtedly the most pleasant surprise of 2014 for the Angels. Mike Scioscia has his fingers crossed that Shoemaker won't wilt into his shakier past life as a mid-tier Triple-A starter—and that his oblique strain doesn't crop up.

A shaky C.J. Wilson will start Game 3, which gives the Royals their clearest path to advancing. They need to pound Shoemaker in Game 2 and get to Weaver in Game 3, at which point James Shields has enough rest to take the mound. 

It's a lot to ask for a team that's been hanging on by a bunt and a prayer all season.

Prediction: Angels in Four

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.

All advanced metrics are courtesy of Fangraphs.