Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The New York Giants have come back to life the last couple of weeks and will try to win their third straight game on Sunday when they host the Atlanta Falcons. The Giants are coming off a 45-14 road victory against Washington last Thursday as three-point underdogs and will take on a Falcons team that has struggled on the road, playing their second in a row away from home after losing to the Minnesota Vikings 41-28 as 5.5-point favorites.

Point spread: The Giants opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 49.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 24.5-22.6 Falcons

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Offensively, Atlanta can score with just about any team in the NFL. The problem is the defense, which has struggled to stop the opposition on the road this season. Giving up 41 points to the Vikings is embarrassing, and you can bet Falcons head coach Mike Smith will make his players watch a lot of game film of that loss to try to figure out what went wrong.

They also need to limit turnovers, as quarterback Matt Ryan threw two interceptions to go along with his three touchdown passes and 298 passing yards. Ryan led Atlanta to a 34-0 rout of the Giants in the last meeting two years ago as a one-point home favorite with 270 yards and three touchdowns while the defense picked off New York quarterback Eli Manning twice.

Why the Giants can cover the spread

The Giants have found what they were looking for to become a successful football team, running the ball effectively and taking pressure off Manning while playing solid defense. All of that was missing in New York’s first two games of the season, and now there is a reason to be optimistic in the Big Apple.

Manning played a nearly flawless game against Washington, throwing for 300 yards with four touchdowns and one interception, and the team also got 121 yards and one touchdown combined from running backs Andre Williams and Rashad Jennings in the victory. The Giants knocked off the Houston Texans 30-17 in their last home game in Week 3 as 1.5-point favorites to improve to 7-3 against the spread in their past 10 under that scenario.

Smart Pick

The Falcons are a poor road team, going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs away from home. They will be visiting a hot New York team that seems to be running on all cylinders right now. The Giants won the last home meeting three seasons ago in the playoffs 24-2, as Atlanta struggled outdoors with Ryan totalling only 199 passing yards.

Ryan may post a total higher than that here, but Manning is playing at a higher level than him and has shown more confidence with more balance on offense. Minnesota was able to run all over the Falcons, and there’s no reason to think New York can’t do the same thing with Jennings and Williams. The Giants are the play here.

Trends

• Atlanta is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in eight of N.Y. Giants's last nine games when playing Atlanta

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.