Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: Keys for Each Team to Win ALDS Game 1

Game 1 of a five-game series may not seem like a must-win game, but when it comes to the American League Division Series, you'd best believe that the opening game is perhaps the most important of the series.

Since 2009, teams that have emerged victorious in Game 1 of the ALDS have gone on to win the series at an 80 percent clip. Only twice—in 2011—has the team that lost Game 1 come back to advance to the ALCS. 

So the pressure is on the Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals when they take the field Thursday night at Angel Stadium.

Jered Weaver gets the ball for the home team, while Jason Vargas will toe the rubber for the visitors, and it's fair to say that bragging rights will be on the line between the former college and professional teammates that happen to be the best of friends.

Let's take a look at what each of their respective clubs needs to do in order to emerge victorious when the action gets underway at 9 p.m. ET.

Keys For the Angels

Control Kansas City's Running Game

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

No team in baseball takes off running more often than the Royals do, even in the playoffs. Just ask the Oakland A's, a team that was powerless to stop Kansas City from going 7-for-7 in stolen base attempts in the postseason's opening game.

As ESPN's Tim Kurkjian notes, Kansas City's felonious ways are crucial to the team's ability to generate any offense at all:

"

It's remarkable that the Royals are here to begin with given that no team had ever made the playoffs after finishing last in the major leagues in home runs and walks. At least offensively, they defy the odds, but in the wild-card game, they somehow scored nine runs, via beg, borrow and steal, especially steal.

"

There are only two ways to keep such an attack in check.

But when that fails—and the chances of Weaver tossing the third no-hitter in playoff history are slim-to-none—it's on the pitcher to get the ball to home plate fast enough so that the catcher has a chance to nail the thief in action with a strong, accurate throw.

Angels catchers have been only average when it comes to doing just that, a reason why both backup Hank Conger and starter Chris Iannetta were seen hanging around practice after many of their teammates had hit the showers.

Against a Royals team that relies on its legs instead of brute strength to generate runs, this isn't only a key for the Angels in Game 1—it will be the key to their success throughout the series. Unless, of course, they want to see Jarrod Dyson do his "rev-it-up" dance in person.

In that case, by all means, don't pay attention to the man on first base...or second.

Don't Give the Royals Strikes to Hit

Unlike more disciplined and powerful teams, Kansas City doesn't rely on drawing walks or hitting home runs to get on base and generate runs. It's just not the team's style.

The Royals don't strike out much, either, posting the lowest strikeout rate (16.3 percent), per FanGraphs, of any team in the game. But boy do they love to chase pitches outside the strike zone. Kansas City batters swung at 33.2 percent of the pitches that they saw off the plate—the sixth-highest percentage in baseball.

They make contract with those pitches 71.2 percent of the time, a mark equaled by only the New York Yankees. We're not talking about solid contact here, either. It's not often that a player can get the sweet spot of the bat on a pitch that's low-and-away, for example, or one that's four inches off the plate.

Considering the team's MLB-worst 6.3 percent walk rate, there's little risk in keeping the ball off the plate for the Angels.

The Royals will swing at almost anything that comes their way, and while some of those swings will result in balls off the end of the bat that drop in for a base hit, the odds are in the Angels' favor that the end result will be a foul ball—or a weak ground ball that results in an easy out.

Get to Jason Vargas Early

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

To say that Kansas City starter Jason Vargas finished the regular season on a down note would be like saying that Oakland's second-half performance was only a little slump, not a collapse of epic proportions.

Timeframe	ERA	WHIP	IP	BB/K	BAA
First 26 starts	3.14	1.23	169	34/112	.263
Last four starts	9.00	1.67	18	7/16	.299

He's failed to reach the fifth inning in either of his last two outings and, despite having spent nearly a decade in the major leagues, has never stepped foot on the mound in the postseason before.

While it's true that the Royals have arguably the best bullpen of any team in the playoffs, Kansas City manager Ned Yost has proven that he simply won't use his best relievers in innings that they haven't become accustomed to pitching in.

There's no telling what Yost might do if forced to pull Vargas from the game in say, the third or fourth inning of Game 1—but chances are it's going to work out in the Angels' favor.

Keys For the Royals

Run Early and Often Against Weaver

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

It's not a question of if the Royals are going to take off running against the Angels, it's a matter of just how early in the game Yost decides to open the floodgates.

If he's been paying attention, it should be as soon as someone with speed makes his way on base. The Angels allowed 106 stolen bases during the regular season, the ninth-most in baseball and third-highest total in the AL. The team's 27 percent caught-stealing rate was on par with league average—nothing special.

Of those 106 stolen bases, 25 came while Weaver was on the mound. Only three pitchers—and only one in the AL—saw runners steal more bases against them.

Pitcher	Team	SB
Scott Feldman	HOU	35
A.J. Burnett	PHI	33
Tyson Ross	SDP	31
Jered Weaver	LAA	25
Roberto Hernandez	PHI/LAD	23

Of course for Kansas City's running game to have a chance to be effective, the Royals have to get on base first.

Patience Is a Virtue

Alex Gallardo/Associated Press

No team drew fewer walks this year than the Royals, one of only four teams to finish the year with less than 400 free trips to first base. Asking their batters to be more selective at the plate is typically a waste of time.

But against Weaver, seeing at least one pitch could make a huge difference. Among qualified starters, he has the sixth-lowest percentage of first-pitch strikes (56 percent of the time), which just happens to be the worst of his career.

Not convinced that this matters in the grand scheme of things? Take a look at how batters fare against him when they start with a 1-0 count as opposed to an 0-1 count.

Count	BA	OBP	OPS	XBH (HR)	BB/K
1-0	.263	.354	.783	30 (13)	49/60
0-1	.207	.247	.567	24 (10)	16/109

That's a fairly significant difference, especially for a team like the Royals that isn't going to hit a bunch of home runs and relies on its ability to get on base to generate offense.

To Get Mike Trout Out of His Comfort Zone, Jason Vargas Must Get Out of His

Pat Sullivan/Associated Press

There's no shame in getting torched by Mike Trout. He is the best player in the game, after all. But you won't find Vargas obsessing over facing him in the postseason, as he explained to Greg Beacham of The Associated Press: 

"

There aren't very many players like (Trout) that come along. (But) you're going to have to negotiate that whole lineup, and if you think about one hitter, your work is going to be cut out for you.

"

Yet Vargas, who has faced Trout 17 times over the course of his career, might want to give his former teammate some extra attention, given the youngster's success against the veteran southpaw.

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	XBH (HR)	BB/K
.400	.471	.667	1.137	2 (1)	2/0

But the phenomenal one does have a weakness that Vargas (and all the Royals pitchers) would be wise to exploit: He struggles against pitches up around his shoulders.

Per BrooksBaseball.net, Trout is hitting .082 (9-for-110) against pitches up in the zone this season and .312 (155-for-497) against offerings in the middle and down in the zone. Keeping the ball high seems like a simple enough strategy, right?

Except keeping the ball up in the zone isn't something that Vargas does. Among Kansas City's starters, he's the only one that doesn't throw at least 20 percent of his pitches around the shoulders and up.

Pitcher	% Pitches Up in Zone
Danny Duffy	32.60
Yordano Ventura	32.06
Jeremy Guthrie	24.23
James Shields	22.44
Jason Vargas	16.94

While it's not in his nature to pitch high, Vargas is going to have to alter his approach against Trout if he hopes to keep him in check—and avoid outcomes like this.

Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.

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