Predicting the Winner of Each College Football Conference After Week 5
Well, September is officially behind us, and we’re through a month of the college football season.
Every team in the Football Bowl Subdivision has had multiple opportunities to impress us, or, in some cases, make their teams long for the beginning of basketball practice.
Two coaches (Kansas’ Charlie Weis and SMU’s June Jones) have already departed, and the heat has been turned up on others, like Michigan’s Brady Hoke.
We might not know everything about college football (and we’ll find out plenty more this weekend), but now we can evaluate teams at least a little better than we could before.
So this is an excellent opportunity to project the winners of every FBS conference. Projections are based on performance thus far, schedules and observations made over the course of September.
ACC
1 of 10
Florida State
The pick here is the same it was before the season began: Florida State, the defending BCS national champions.
Sure, the Seminoles haven’t looked like the same team that steamrolled virtually every team they faced en route to the program’s first national title since 2000.
They looked sluggish in beating Oklahoma State 37-31 in the opener, were extremely fortunate to survive Clemson in a 23-17 overtime win and dug themselves a 17-point hole before rallying for a 56-41 win at N.C. State. Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel says FSU is fighting through adversity.
FSU coach Jimbo Fisher agrees.
"Eventually people get tired of knocking you down. I'd rather us not get knocked down, but at the same time, the resiliency to stand there and sometimes when you take a punch, the best message you can send is, 'Good. OK, here we go again.' That's what our team does.
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The FSU defense has struggled and is allowing 25.3 points per game, in part because it has been giving up too many big plays.
But here’s the thing: Florida State is still the class of the ACC and has an extremely forgiving schedule.
FSU’s toughest remaining game is against No. 9 Notre Dame, and that’s a non-ACC game. The Seminoles should still be favored in that one. The second-toughest is at Louisville on Oct. 30, but the Cardinals have already lost at Virginia and aren’t a serious Atlantic Division challenger.
Fisher’s team should cruise to the Atlantic Division title (it can even afford a loss along the way) and beat whoever emerges from a muddled Coastal Division for the program’s third consecutive ACC title and a likely berth in the College Football Playoff.
American Athletic Conference
2 of 10
East Carolina
You’d be hard-pressed to make the case that a team outside the Power 5 leagues had a better September than East Carolina.
The Pirates are in their first season in the AAC, but they look like they could hang in the ACC.
A week after Virginia Tech became the first team to win at Ohio State since 2011, Ruffin McNeill and the Pirates went into Blacksburg and surprised the Hokies. They proved it was no fluke, ripping North Carolina 70-41 a week later. ECU torched the Tar Heels for 789 yards of total offense, the most ever allowed by UNC in a single game.
Senior quarterback Shane Carden leads a high-powered offense that averages 43.3 points per game, No. 13 nationally. Carden has already thrown for 1,469 yards and 11 touchdowns.
ECU’s only loss was a 33-23 defeat at South Carolina, and the Pirates look like a contender for the “Group of 5” spot in the College Football Playoff’s bowl structure.
The toughest game left on the schedule is a Nov. 13 trip to Cincinnati, and ECU gets Central Florida at home to end the season. It’d be foolish to pick anyone but ECU for the AAC championship at this point.
Big Ten
3 of 10
Michigan State
A year ago, Michigan State snuck up on people. The Big Ten spotlight shone brightest on Ohio State, which built a 24-game winning streak and needed only a win in the Big Ten title game to make the BCS National Championship.
The Spartans spoiled that storyline with an upset of the Buckeyes and built on their success with a Rose Bowl win that finished a 13-1 season.
This fall, they’re the clear class of the league, despite a 46-27 loss at Oregon that sullied the Big Ten’s national reputation.
A year ago, the Spartans won with defense. Now, they’re averaging 50.3 points per game. Quarterback Connor Cook is a talented pocket passer and senior tailback Jeremy Langford is a bruising runner coming off a 1,422-yard junior season.
Michigan State’s two biggest league games left are at home: No. 19 Nebraska Saturday and No. 20 Ohio State Nov. 8. They’re the favorites to win the East, beat Nebraska or Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game and claim their second consecutive league championship.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Big 12
4 of 10
Oklahoma
Four games into the season, Oklahoma has built on the promise that it flashed in last January’s Sugar Bowl to emerge as one of college football’s best teams.
The Sooners are averaging 44.8 points per game (No. 9 nationally) but are also a hard-hitting, stingy defensive unit, allowing only 16.5 points per game, No. 17 nationally.
Sophomore quarterback Trevor Knight has just four touchdowns against three interceptions but has displayed a big arm while throwing for 1,065 yards; he is one of college football’s top young quarterbacks.
The Sooners have a balanced offense and have overcome injuries and suspensions in their backfield to average 222.8 yards per game on the ground.
While the Big 12’s nine-game schedule means teams don’t avoid anyone, Oklahoma’s schedule is quite favorable.
Saturday’s trip to No. 25 TCU could be treacherous, but the biggest games of the season are at home. No. 23 Kansas State visits Oct. 18, No. 21 Oklahoma State visits Nov. 6, and the Big 12’s game of the year is at home, too.
A year ago, Baylor ripped the Sooners on the way to its first outright league championship in 33 years, but the No. 7 Bears come to Norman on Nov. 8.
It should be a great game, but the home-field edge will give OU the boost it needs to take control of the Big 12 race and the league championship.
Conference USA
5 of 10
Marshall
Entering this season, the Thundering Herd was the favorite to claim the C-USA championship, and it has done nothing to change that notion through four games. Marshall has one of college football’s most fast-paced, high-powered offenses and averages 45.5 points per game, which ranks sixth-best nationally.
They are in the top 24 nationally in both rushing and passing yards and have one of college football’s best quarterbacks in senior Rakeem Cato. Cato has thrown for 1,163 yards and has 10 touchdowns against two interceptions.
Junior tailback Devon Johnson is also a force, with 482 yards rushing and five scores. He averages a sparkling 7.4 yards per carry.
A year ago, the Herd lost only two C-USA games, 51-49 at Middle Tennessee and the C-USA title game at Rice.
This year, the 3-2 Blue Raiders visit Marshall, and so does Rice. The Owls are 1-3 and have taken a step back this fall. It’s impossible to pick anyone but Marshall to win the C-USA East, take down the West Division winner and claim the league title.
Mid-American Conference
6 of 10
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois won the MAC championship in 2012 and lost the 2013 title game to Bowling Green, but the Huskies were not the league favorite entering this season. After all, they had to replace one of the best players in program history in quarterback Jordan Lynch.
A month into the season, the Huskies look like the big dogs of the MAC once again.
They own a Big Ten win, a 23-15 triumph at Northwestern, and also have a road win at UNLV.
Bowling Green (Indiana) and Central Michigan (at Purdue) also own wins over Big Ten foes, but Northern Illinois looks like the best team of that trio.
The Huskies have an impressive rushing game, averaging 274.8 yards per game, which ranks No. 14 nationally. Sophomore quarterback Drew Hare has emerged as the starter, throwing for 623 yards with eight touchdowns against no interceptions.
Northern Illinois’ toughest competition in the West looks like Toledo, and the Huskies host the Rockets on Nov. 11. NIU doesn’t face Bowling Green in the regular season but should get revenge against the porous Falcons, who yield 43.6 points per game, in the MAC title game.
Mountain West Conference
7 of 10
Colorado State
Perhaps more than any conference in football, the Mountain West is impossible to handicap.
The preseason favorite, Boise State, is 3-2 following a 28-14 loss to Air Force. The league’s best player, Utah State senior quarterback Chuckie Keeton, is battling through a second injury to the same knee that led to a redshirt in 2013. And Fresno State (11-2 a year ago) has already lost more games than it did in all of 2013.
This muddled mess means there’s room for a new contender to emerge. Why not Colorado State? The Rams have already lost to Boise State but own impressive wins over Colorado and Boston College, both away from Fort Collins.
Senior Garrett Grayson is one of the MWC’s best quarterbacks. He threw for over 3,600 yards a year ago and has already thrown for 1,261 yards with 10 touchdowns and four picks this year. Alabama transfer Dee Hart is running hard for his former offensive coordinator, Jim McElwain, too.
The Rams have to travel to Nevada and Air Force, but they host Utah State. They could easily win the Mountain Division and take down whoever emerges from the West (Nevada, perhaps) to win the league title.
Pac-12
8 of 10
Oregon
You might not remember, but they certainly haven’t forgotten in Eugene: Stanford has won the last two Pac-12 championships. That hasn’t sat well with Oregon or its fans, but this is the year that changes.
The Ducks own the nation’s most impressive non-conference win (a 46-27 comeback win over fellow Top 10 team Michigan State) and possess a very potent offense.
Oregon averages 48.5 points per game (No. 4 nationally) and actually has solid offensive balance.
While junior quarterback Marcus Mariota has shown why he is a Heisman Trophy candidate with his play so far (1,135 yards, 13 touchdowns, no interceptions), he is also capable of moving the ball on the ground, and Oregon has a talented backfield.
Royce Freeman, Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner would start for any team in the nation, and although Oregon’s defense is not as impressive as its offense, the Ducks score enough to mitigate its problems.
Oregon must travel to No. 8 UCLA Oct. 11 but hosts No. 14 Stanford on Nov. 1 in a game that should decide the North Division winner. Expect the Ducks to take down the Bruins in the Pac-12 title game and claim the league championship again.
SEC
9 of 10
Alabama
Is there a tougher division right now than the SEC West? If you pay attention to the national polls, no. Six West Division teams are in the Top 15 of this week’s Associated Press poll. Woe is Arkansas, by the way.
So how do you pick a team to emerge from this group and face the inevitable East Division sacrificial lamb in Atlanta for the SEC championship? It isn’t easy.
You pick the team with the best combination of schedule and all-around talent, and that’s Alabama.
The Crimson Tide can run the ball with bruising backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. With the emergence of senior Blake Sims (1,091 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions) as the starting quarterback and junior Amari Cooper (43 receptions, 655 yards, five touchdowns) as one of the nation’s best receivers, Alabama has an impressive offense.
The Crimson Tide’s defense is not as tested, but is still allowing just 14 points per game, No. 9 nationally. Alabama must go to No. 11 Ole Miss this week and also travels to No. 15 LSU on Nov. 8, but it hosts No. 6 Texas A&M, No. 12 Mississippi State and No. 5 Auburn. Alabama should be motivated by Ole Miss safety Cody Prewitt, who told WJTV-TV he doesn't think Alabama "is as good as they have been."
With all that considered, it’s awfully tough to pick against Alabama as the SEC champions.
Sun Belt
10 of 10
Louisiana-Monroe
Given all the “guarantee” games that Sun Belt teams play early in the season, this can be a difficult league to handicap early on. But Louisiana-Monroe owns a win over Power 5 foe Wake Forest and has an early 2-0 league mark with wins over Troy and Idaho.
The Warhawks are led by well-traveled quarterback Pete Thomas, formerly of N.C. State, who has 978 passing yards with four touchdowns against two interceptions.
ULM must travel to Arkansas State but hosts preseason league favorite Louisiana-Lafayette in what could have huge league title implications. The Sun Belt is hard to handicap, but the Warhawks have been impressive enough early on to earn the nod.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
