Creating a Blueprint for Each ALDS, NLDS Team to Win the World Series
The road from the division series to winning the World Series isn't that complicated. Just score more runs than the other team in 11 games, and the bubbly is yours to spray around.
That's the general idea, anyway. If you want to talk specifics, we need to get...well, specific.
The fact is that each of the eight clubs set to begin battle in the division series round, starting with the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles on Thursday evening, is looking at a unique blueprint for winning it all. These blueprints, naturally, boil down to maximizing strengths and minimizing weaknesses.
Such is what we're here to talk about. Let's get to it.
Baltimore Orioles
1 of 8
When you win 96 games in the regular season, you generally shouldn't be in a hurry to deviate from your formula. For the Baltimore Orioles, that means dingers, defense and relief pitching.
The Orioles finished below league average in OBP and dead last in stolen bases, so they definitely needed their league-leading 211 home runs. It'll be largely up to Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones and Steve Pearce to make sure the dingers keep coming.
"I don’t think you try to change anything," said Cruz, whose 40 homers led MLB, to Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun. He added: "We’re not going to change the way we play. We’ve been successful so far."
Good idea. And if the Orioles can last eight games, they'll get the suspended Chris Davis and his powerful left-handed stick back for the end of the American League Championship Series and the World Series. That'll help.
On the flip side, a big part of Baltimore's run prevention must continue to be its defense. Baseball Prospectus had the Orioles as the No. 4 team in defensive efficiency in the regular season, in part because Buck Showalter had David Lough and Ryan Flaherty to complement his regulars. That course should be stayed.
An even bigger key is Showalter continuing to be the Stanley Kubrick of bullpen management. Said bullpen led baseball in ERA after the break, with six relievers posting ERAs under 3.00 in the process. With that kind of depth and talent, Showalter can shorten games to five or six innings.
In other words: The Orioles' comparatively weak starting pitching need not be their doom.
Detroit Tigers
2 of 8
Whereas the Orioles should stick to their formula, the Detroit Tigers shouldn't be afraid to mix it up.
Especially knowing that skipper Brad Ausmus is confident enough in Justin Verlander to go with him as his Game 2 starter behind Max Scherzer. It's a noble gesture and one supported by Verlander's strong finish. But before that came a 4.81 ERA in 30 starts, so Ausmus is definitely rolling the dice.
If it doesn't work out, he needs to make sure it was a one-time gamble. In the event Verlander gets knocked around, Ausmus will be better off bumping him behind David Price and Rick Porcello in the pecking order for the ALCS and World Series rather than trusting in Verlander's track record.
Elsewhere, there's potentially a special job for a former member of Detroit's rotation: Anibal Sanchez.
Last year's American League ERA champ will be relieving in October, and it's easy to think big about that. If Sanchez flashes his usual stuff in relief, Ausmus could turn him into the shutdown reliever that his team sorely needs. That would be a big help for a rotation that's not used to having help.
Offensively, it's hard to see the Tigers going far without three guys carrying the load: Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez. They basically were Detroit's offense in the regular season and, fortunately, all three are entering October off excellent Septembers.
The Tigers will be in good shape if that continues.
Kansas City Royals
3 of 8
With varying degrees of success, the Kansas City Royals displayed the biggest keys for their World Series run in their 9-8 victory over the Oakland A's in the Wild Card Game on Tuesday night.
One thing involved Ned Yost taking advice from FanGraphs' Dave Cameron: "Your team led the majors in steals this year, swiping 153 bags at an 81% success rate, also best in the majors. Your team is fast and full of guys who know how to run the bases. That’s a big advantage..."
Darn right it's a big advantage. The Royals had seven different guys steal bases Tuesday night, a perfect reflection of how much speed they have. Putting this speed to use as often as possible is the right idea.
What the Royals need to do less of, however, is bunt. Rather than play for one run every freakin' time the opportunity presents itself, Yost will do his club more favors if he just lets his guys run and takes advantage of this Royals lineup's other main talent: making contact. No team struck out less than the Royals in 2014.
Also, Tuesday night needs to be the last time Yost mismanages his team's other big strength: its bullpen. Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland need not be so strictly limited to the seventh, eighth and ninth innings, and Brandon Finnegan sure looks like he's ready for big innings.
If Yost manages the club's offense and bullpen more appropriately while the team's good-not-great starting rotation holds up its end, the Royals' return to the playoffs could go better than anyone dared to dream.
.png?w=256)
Los Angeles Angels
4 of 8
After winning a league-best 98 games, the Los Angeles Angels should also be a candidate to stick to the formula.
But their situation is complicated by what injuries have done to their starting rotation. With Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs gone and Matt Shoemaker coming off an injury, the Angels don't have the kind of powerhouse rotation that looks good on a World Series contender.
This doesn't need to be their undoing, though. They have the goods to take pressure off their starters.
According to FanGraphs, the Angels bullpen put up the best WAR of any unit in the second half. The acquisition of Huston Street helped, and there's good talent around him too. Unlike in the past couple of years, the Angels have a bullpen that can shorten games with the best of 'em.
Even better than the club's bullpen, however, is its offense.
This Angels offense sort of mirrors last year's Boston Red Sox offense in that it has both depth and variety. The Angels can get on base, hit home runs and run a little bit. Each of these aspects should come into play as they make their way through October.
On a related note, Mike Trout must be the big key. He can do a lot of damage by being the same power source he was in the regular season, but he'll do even more if he uses his legs. If he tears up the basepaths like he did in 2012 and 2013, he's going to be an utter nightmare for the opposition.
Los Angeles Dodgers
5 of 8
The Los Angeles Dodgers were a different team when Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke started, going 42-17 in their games and 52-51 in all other contests.
The bad news is that this isn't ideal. The good news is that Kershaw and Greinke (especially Kershaw, obviously) have the talent to make sure it continues.
They'll need to. Continued domination will allow them to make up for the drop-off in talent after them in the Dodgers rotation—exacerbated by Hyun-Jin Ryu's shoulder issues—and it would also more than likely save the Dodgers from being burned by a bullpen that's very thin outside of Kenley Jansen.
That's especially the case if you focus on recent history. In the second half of the season, Jansen was really the only reliever the Dodgers could count on.
Mind you, one thing that would make life easier for everyone is if the Dodgers offense continues to produce like it did in the second half. The stars shining made that possible, as Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Juan Uribe were all terrific, while Yasiel Puig snapped out of a slump at the end of September.
One thing, though: Hanley Ramirez must be kept on a short leash. If his bat goes quiet, he's sure as heck not going to pull a Stephen Drew and make up for it with good defense.
Fortunately, Don Mattingly has a guy with a good bat and solid glove he can turn to in Justin Turner. Given the season he's had, it would be all too appropriate if he played a hero role for the Dodgers in October.
San Francisco Giants
6 of 8
The San Francisco Giants had to scrap and claw just to get into the postseason, but it was made perfectly clear Wednesday night that at least one of their weapons should not be underestimated.
Madison Bumgarner hurled a 10-strikeout complete-game shutout in San Francisco's 8-0 romp over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Wild Card Game. In doing so, the lefty rode a 2.29 second-half ERA right into October and cemented himself as a guy who can match up with anybody.
It's too bad the Giants rotation is otherwise thinner than October audiences are used to. Jake Peavy's a solid No. 2 behind Bumgarner, but Matt Cain is injured, Tim Lincecum is in the bullpen and Tim Hudson and Ryan Vogelsong both had rough second halves.
It won't be all bad if Lincecum takes to relieving like he did in October 2012, however. It's a scary thought that a manager like Bruce Bochy could have him and the likes of Yusmeiro Petit, Jean Machi, Javier Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla and a rejuvenated Sergio Romo to take control of the middle to late innings.
Meanwhile, on offense, more of what the Giants saw Wednesday night would be nice. Pablo Sandoval was once again energized by the bright lights, and Buster Posey, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford all picked up where they left off after strong Septembers.
Without much depth to lean on elsewhere, that leaves Hunter Pence as the wild card. If he can be what he was in the first half instead of what he was in September or the 2012 postseason, the Giants offense will be surprisingly productive through another deep October run.
St. Louis Cardinals
7 of 8
Go looking for things the St. Louis Cardinals can rely on, and you won't come away empty-handed.
On the mound, Adam Wainwright is a true No. 1 starter, and Lance Lynn has turned into a darn good No. 2. Offensively, Jhonny Peralta and Matt Carpenter have been solid all year, and Matt Holliday is riding a second-half power surge into October.
Realistically, though, this year's Cardinals team isn't as formidable as last year's club. That's a test for Mike Matheny, who will have to play his cards just right.
With his lineup, this could mean getting Matt Adams and Yadier Molina out of the way by pushing them down in the order. This would be drastic action in light of their track records, but Molina hasn't hit much since he returned from his thumb injury, and Adams hasn't hit at all since the break.
Matheny's use of his staff is going to require even more creativity. He should be open to pushing Shelby Miller ahead of John Lackey in his postseason rotation, and he needs to be realistic with his bullpen.
With Trevor Rosenthal no sure thing, the recently hot Carlos Martinez must be a Plan B closer. And while Matheny probably won't forget that Randy Choate is death on lefties, he must also remember that Pat Neshek owns right-handed batters. As for Michael Wacha, it's easy to imagine him as a multi-inning weapon.
It was talent that got the Cardinals to the World Series in 2013. In 2014, it will likely have to be Matheny's managing.
Washington Nationals
8 of 8
On their way to a 96-win season and an NL East title, there was one advantage the Washington Nationals had that should continue to serve them well in the playoffs: starting pitching.
As I wrote Sunday, Washington's rotation of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez is as good as it gets in this year's postseason. The four certainly have talent, but just as important is how they offer variety that will come in handy in a short series.
But the Nationals don't just need these four to keep runs off the board. They also need to make sure that too much isn't asked of the club's bullpen. It dropped off in the second half and is thin at the back end, with Rafael Soriano now irrelevant and Drew Storen not as overpowering as he used to be.
Fortunately, Washington's starting rotation doesn't need to do it alone. The club's offense finished in the top five in runs scored in the second half, during which things clicked for Anthony Rendon, Denard Span, Jayson Werth and Ian Desmond.
More recently, Bryce Harper has come alive. In what was really his best sustained stretch since April 2013, he hit .319 with a .911 OPS and six homers over his last 27 games.
The catch is that he did it while batting mostly in the No. 6 spot, the same spot he's occupied most of the season. If he continues his hot hitting in October, Matt Williams needs to knock that off and move Harper up in the lineup. Regardless of the guy's age and experience, the priority should be getting him more at-bats.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
