Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers are both coming off huge wins last week and will meet at Lambeau Field on Thursday Night Football for the first time since they tied 26-26 there last year. The Packers beat the Chicago Bears 38-17 as two-point road favorites and are 6-3 against the spread in the last nine meetings with the Vikings, who just knocked off the Atlanta Falcons 41-28 as 5.5-point home underdogs.

Point spread: Packers opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 48 (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 25.4-22.2 Vikings

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota got the spark it needed last week with rookie Teddy Bridgewater making his first NFL start at quarterback, as the former Louisville star completed 19 of 30 passes for 317 yards. Even though Bridgewater did not throw a touchdown pass, he also did not toss an interception, allowing the team’s running game to pound the ball against the Falcons.

The Vikings saw running backs Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon combine for 213 rushing yards and three touchdowns while Bridgewater also added 27 yards on five carries and scored a touchdown on a 13-yard run. Bridgewater had his ankle probed on Monday after leaving the game late, and he is hoping to start at Green Bay.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers busted out of their slump in a big way against the Bears, and they have enjoyed a lot of success at home against NFC North opponents with an 8-2 mark against the spread in their past 10 games.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers enjoyed his best game of the season and showed why he is considered one of the league’s best signal callers, completing 22 of 28 passes for 302 yards and four touchdowns. Wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb each scored two touchdowns for the Packers, who are also 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings with Minnesota.

Smart Pick

Both teams are 2-2 this season, tied with Chicago and one game behind the Detroit Lions in the NFC North standings. Green Bay took care of business last week and knows not to take any divisional opponents lightly. While the team’s defense has yet to play its best game of the season, making a primetime appearance here against the Vikings could be just what the Pack needs.

Minnesota is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games against NFC North foes, and the only reason the teams tied last season is because Rodgers was out with a broken collarbone. Rodgers led Green Bay to a 44-31 road win against the Vikings in the other meeting last year, and bettors can expect a similar result offensively in what should be an easy cover at Lambeau.

Trends

• Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
• Green Bay is 7-1-1 SU in its last nine games when playing Minnesota

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