Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Detroit Lions are 3-1 both SU and ATS for new head coach Jim Caldwell, and at the moment look like the best team in the NFC North. The Lions get a chance to move to 4-1 when they host the 1-3 Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon at Ford Field.

Point spread: Lions opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 23.6-22.1 Lions

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills are coming off a tough 23-17 loss at Houston in which they held the Texans to 301 total yards—just 37 yards on the ground—but gave up an 80-yard interception return for a score to a defensive end that proved to be the difference in both the game and the cover.

The Bills will now go with Kyle Orton at quarterback over the skittish EJ Manuel, who couldn't complete half his passes last week unless you count the two passes Houston defenders caught. However, Buffalo is really a running team anyway; it ranked second in the league last year at 144 yards per game. And the Bills defense ranks 10th overall this year, third against the run.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions just beat the Jets in New Jersey 24-17, winning the time-of-possession battle by having the ball 35 minutes, forcing two turnovers while committing none and covering the spread as two-point road favorites. Quarterback Matt Stafford completed 24 of 34 throws, but just two to Calvin Johnson, who was hampered by a sore ankle. So Stafford is learning to spread the ball around, and Johnson's ankle should be better; it's win-win.

Detroit played well in two home games earlier this season, wins and covers over the Giants and Packers. And the Lions defense ranks No. 1 overall in the league, allowing just 267 yards per game. When was the last time they could claim that?

Smart Pick

Buffalo is on the verge of really messing up with Manuel; yes, he's inconsistent, but at this point, benching is the answer? Is Orton the better option? Detroit, meanwhile, might quietly be one of the best teams in the NFC.

Toss in a running game and this outfit might really be dangerous. The Lions and their front four will try to stuff the Buffalo run and make Orton beat them through the air, and that sounds like a recipe for victory. The pick here is with Detroit, minus the points.

Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in four of Buffalo's last six games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in six of Detroit's last seven games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.