9 Crucial Stats That Could Decide the 2014 MLB Division Series Winners
During October's national stage, performances on the field get most of the attention and focus. But underneath that drama, there are cold, hard numbers that might help explain why a particular player or team—or even a whole playoff series—wound up with a certain result.
The following nine statistics—one for each of the remaining postseason participants—highlight factors and figures that could prove significant enough to alter an outcome.
But don't worry: You don't need to have your calculators and spreadsheets on hand while you're watching the action unfold. The number-crunching has been done already.
The Pirates Pitchers' 50.5 Ground-Ball Percentage
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Provided the Pittsburgh Pirates can make it past Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night, they could make things tough for the top-seeded Washington Nationals in the NLDS.
Pirates pitchers know a thing or two about keeping the ball down and inducing worm-burners, as they have a 50.5 ground-ball percentage that is far and away the highest rate among all 30 MLB pitching staffs, per FanGraphs.
That is the sort of thing that could limit Washington's ability to produce big plays and big innings with the sticks and allow Pittsburgh to hang around and make things interesting, as long as the grounders find gloves.
The Giants' 31-35 Record Without Angel Pagan
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Angel Pagan is a good player, but he's certainly not a superstar. He just might be the most indispensable member of the San Francisco Giants, however.
You see, when the center fielder and leadoff man plays this year, the Giants are 57-39 (.594). When he doesn't go? San Francisco sports a 31-35 record (.470).
Alas, Pagan is out for the entire postseason due to back surgery, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. "This thing has been nagging him for three or four months," manager Bruce Bochy said of the herniated disk in Pagan's back. "It's not getting better."
Unfortunately, "better" is one thing the Giants are not sans Pagan.
The Nationals' 12.8 Baserunning Runs
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As if the Nationals weren't good enough on the mound and in the batter's box, they're also excellent on the basepaths.
The team's 12.8 baserunning runs (BsR), which takes into account all aspects of getting around the diamond, is No. 1 in MLB and easily the best among the eight teams still playing.
What's more, the four Nationals with the most plate appearances this year—Anthony Rendon (7.4 BsR), Ian Desmond (5.2), Denard Span (4.9) and Jayson Werth (4.2)—are all in the positive. This club knows how to run the bases, whether that's stealing 'em or taking the extra one at an opportune time.
Little things like that have a way of looming large in October, and this just goes to show how well-rounded Washington is overall.
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Yadier Molina's 47.7 Caught-Stealing Percentage
4 of 9The Los Angeles Dodgers swiped the second-most bases in baseball (138), but they'll have to deal with Yadier Molina in the NLDS.
The St. Louis Cardinals catcher posted a 47.7 caught-stealing percentage, which checks in as the very best in the majors. In four games against Molina this year, L.A. attempted just two steals, and he stopped both, cutting down Matt Kemp on June 27 (highlight above) and speedster Dee Gordon on June 29.
Molina, who missed several weeks with a torn thumb ligament, wasn't his usual productive self at the plate this year (.282/.333/.386), but having him back behind it could keep the Dodgers anchored, taking away one of their big weapons.
Speaking of, Gordon is dealing with a minor irritation in his right hip, per Chad Thornburg of MLB.com.
"I need to be at the top of the lineup for us," Gordon said. "You guys will see, I'll be out there Friday night." Gordon has been cleared for Game 1 and expects to go.
Whether MLB's steals leader will be going on the bases, though, is another story with Molina at the ready.
The Dodgers' .336 Weighted On-Base Average on the Road
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It's no secret that Dodger Stadium is a pitcher-friendly park, which is why the home team doesn't mind leaving Los Angeles to get the sticks going.
The Dodgers' have a .336 weighted on-base average (wOBA) on the road that is the top mark around under those circumstances.
In other words, as good as Juan Uribe, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig no matter the venue, they're particularly productive elsewhere, as none has a wOBA south of .360. The league-average road wOBA? Try .304.
They're excited to see you in St. Louie.
The Royals' .113 Isolated Power
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In October, so much of winning comes down to which team comes through with timely hits in big spots with runners on base. But because the caliber of pitching is as good as it gets, stringing together multiple knocks is even more difficult than it is in the regular season.
That makes it helpful to have the ability to smack the occasional extra-base hit or home run, which is something the Kansas City Royals struggle to do.
K.C.'s .113 isolated power (ISO) was the worst not only among postseason entrants, but in the entire sport. (Yes, worse even than the .115 ISO of the offensively challenged San Diego Padres.) That might make it nearly impossible for the Royals to keep up with the Los Angeles Angels, owners of MLB's best offense, in the ALDS.
The Angels Bullpen's 23.6 Strikeout Percentage
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By now, it's well-known that the Angels don't exactly have the deepest rotation, no thanks to season-ending injuries to Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs, not to mention rookie Matt Shoemaker, who has been fighting through an oblique strain.
And the top two starters who are fully healthy, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, aren't exactly the biggest strikeout artists around (7.1 and 7.7 K/9, respectively).
That's where L.A.'s dynamic relief corps helps pick up the slack in a big, big way. The Angels pen is sporting a 23.6 strikeout percentage, which is good for top 10 in the majors and the best among playoff teams—even the Royals and their late-inning flamethrowers.
Given how much this team relies on its relievers, it's comforting to know that arms like Huston Street, Joe Smith, Kevin Jepsen and Jason Grilli, among others, can get a whiff when they need to.
The Tigers' 4.29 Bullpen ERA
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Everyone knows the Detroit Tigers bullpen is the club's Achilles' heel, particularly in the playoffs.
But just how little relief are the relievers providing (or you know, not)? The team's 4.29 bullpen ERA is not only nearly a full half-run worse than any other contender's, it's also the fourth-worst in all of baseball.
If Detroit is going to avoid a first-round upset against the Baltimore Orioles, it's going to have to get length from its dynamite rotation and find a way to get Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, Joba Chamberlain and company not to implode. Again.
The Orioles' 0.31 Walk-to-Strikeout Ratio
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The Baltimore Orioles know how to hit the ball very hard and very far, which is why they lead the majors in home runs—by 25—heading into the playoffs.
What they don't tend to do all that much, though, is get on base via walks—especially compared to how often they strike out. The club has the fifth-fewest of the former and 11th-most of the latter, which are the second-worst and worst ranks, respectively, among all remaining teams.
Add it all up, and the Orioles' 0.31 walk-to-strikeout ratio is the lowest of the playoff participants—and fourth-worst overall. That's a recipe that might leave Baltimore with a bad taste in its mouth if Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones and Steve Pearce can't knock (m)any out of the park against the Tigers' elite starters.
Statistics are accurate through the regular season and come from MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
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