Predicting 'Clutch or Choke' for 2014 MLB Postseason's Biggest Stars
The Major League Baseball postseason brings out the best in some big-name players. It also brings out, well, not the best in others.
With the Kansas City Royals' incredible extra-inning victory over the Oakland Athletics in the AL Wild Card Game Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and the Pittsburgh Pirates set to host the San Francisco Giants in the NL's version Wednesday, the four Division Series are about to get underway.
Each of the remaining clubs has a star player worth singling out to predict whether he will come up clutch or wind up choking under the intense, action-packed pressure that fills the air in October.
Like these.
San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner, LHP
1 of 9
One of the most outwardly competitive pitchers in the game today, San Francisco Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner will harness that drive and fire into a huge asset in Wednesday night's win-or-go-home NL Wild Card Game on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Consider what Bumgarner said, per Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today Sports:
"If you don't want to play in the big games, I think you're wasting your time chasing this dream. I think anybody pitching wants to be out there, and if they don't, they need to ask themselves some questions and reevaluate what they're doing. This is what you work for all year and play all season for. This is the time here, September and October.
"
The 25-year-old lefty has come up big on the big stage before, too, having thrown a combined 15 scoreless innings in his two World Series starts—both wins—in 2010 and 2012. So a play-in game should be a piece o' cake by comparison.
Plus, Bumgarner is going to want to get back at the Pirates for getting to him July 28, in what was one of his very few not-great starts (4.0 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 2:2 K:BB). Being experienced and motivated sets the stage for something special.
Prediction: Clutch
Pittsburgh Pirates: Andrew McCutchen, OF
2 of 9
Think Andrew McCutchen wants another shot to show what he can do in October?
After his 2013 NL MVP campaign led the Pirates to their first postseason since 1992, McCutchen went out and hit .333 with a .462 on-base percentage in six games.
In the Wild Card Game win over the Cincinnati Reds a year ago, the soon-to-be 28-year-old got on base in four of his five trips to the dish.
Oh, and after missing two weeks with injury in August, McCutchen finished off 2014 by slashing .324/.409/.559 in his final 37 games. He's ready.
Besides, his last name practically has the word "Clutch" within it.
Prediction: Clutch
Kansas City Royals: Alex Gordon, OF
3 of 9
In Kansas City's thrilling Wild Card Game win, they scored nine runs on 15 hits across 12 innings—and Alex Gordon was the only Royals player who failed to record at least one hit, run or RBI.
Not the most promising start to a playoff career, huh?
That doesn't mean Gordon is done for already, though, and he will get a Division Series' worth of opportunities to make up ground. But the 30-year-old isn't quite the impact bat that his lofty wins above replacement figures indicate, so Gordon may have to settle for contributing with a key defensive play if he struggles at the plate.
The Los Angeles Angels hitters should keep him busy out in left field, and Gordon will need to play his usual elite defense. Even if he does, though, fans will need to see a base hit or two when the game is on the line.
Prediction: Choke
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Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4 of 9
After a so-so showing (for him) last October in large part because he was hampered down the stretch by a core-muscle injury that required offseason surgery, Miguel Cabrera is in position to get it done this time around.
The 31-year-old's numbers were down this season compared to his past two years, but remember he's the two-time defending AL MVP, so his stats were rather ridiculous in 2012 and 2013. And he acknowledged around the All-Star break that he wasn't necessarily fully recovered yet.
Well, Cabrera was able to flip the switch in September, triple-slashing .379/.409/.709 with 10 doubles, eight homers and 18 RBI. That's a good sign he's feeling healthy and ready to help the Detroit Tigers make a push to return to the World Series after falling short in the ALCS last year.
Prediction: Clutch
St. Louis Cardinals: Adam Wainwright, RHP
5 of 9
Look, Adam Wainwright is unquestionably one of the very best starting pitchers in baseball, and he's had his share of playoff success and dominating performances before. He could do so again.
But the St. Louis Cardinals right-hander has three things going against him.
One: While his second half ended on a high note with 21 scoreless innings, even with that run, he only posted a 3.24 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 6.5 K/9. That's good, but it's not Wainwright-good.
Two: The opposing Los Angeles Dodgers offense is on fire, having scored the second-most runs and recording the best batting average (.276) and on-base percentage (.338) in the game over the second half.
And three: He's lined up to start Game 1 against Clayton Kershaw, who is one of the few pitchers better than Wainwright. That's going to make it tough for him to win, even if he throws well.
Prediction: Choke
Baltimore Orioles: Nelson Cruz, OF/DH
6 of 9
Nelson Cruz finished 2014 as MLB's home run champ with 40 homers—the only player to reach that mark. He also has had plenty of playoff success in the past, too, holding a tie for the most homers in one postseason with eight.
And yet, the 34-year-old did most of his damage this year in the first half. After batting .287/.353/.570 with 28 homers and 74 RBI prior to the break, Cruz went .249/.306/.463 with 12 and 34 after.
Adam Jones is the Baltimore Orioles' lone other proven big bat that's active at the moment, so expect pitchers to handle those two with care, especially Cruz given his October performances. Of course, those pitchers will also be Detroit Tigers, which makes Cruz's task that much more challenging as is.
Prediction: Choke
Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, LHP
7 of 9
We've been over the fact that Kershaw doesn't have the greatest postseason resume, what, with his un-Kershaw-like 4.23 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
Not to mention, there's the disaster that was the Dodgers' season-ending Game 6 last year—at the bats of the very same Cardinals club he has to face in his first outing of the 2014 playoffs.
But the way Kershaw has pitched this year, having led all of baseball in ERA for the fourth straight season and setting career marks in just about every single category imaginable, it's hard not to see the ultracompetitive southpaw come up with a gem or two along the way to getting revenge on St. Louis and helping the Dodgers knock them out this time.
You wanna pick him to choke again? Go for it. Don't see it happening.
Prediction: Clutch
Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout, OF
8 of 9
It's simple, really. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and the Angels are going to need him to continue being just that if they're going to advance.
The club's offense is arguably the best in MLB, thanks in large part to Trout, obviously, but the starting pitching is very much in question, so the 23-year-old will need to do a little of everything—OK, a lot of everything—on both offense and defense.
Good thing Trout has had three years of experience doing just that leading up to this point, his first-ever October. Having won All-Star Game MVP honors in July, Trout showed he can get it done on a big stage, and now is his chance to become this generation's Derek Jeter when it comes to playoff heroics and moments.
Prediction: Clutch
Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, RHP
9 of 9
Because he was shut down in September 2012, just as the Washington Nationals were about to embark upon the playoffs, Stephen Strasburg will be pitching in October for the first time.
That adds some pressure to the pot for a guy who is expected to be the stud on a team that many predict will go all the way this month.
Somehow, Strasburg has gone from massively overhyped to oddly underrated or even (gasp) disappointing to some. Part of that is because he still has the occasional blip and isn't quite as consistent as other elite starters, like Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright or Felix Hernandez, over the course of 162 games.
But Strasburg's stuff is still top-notch, and he has the ability to flat-out dominate any team on any given day. He closed out 2014 with a silly 1.13 ERA and 0.75 WHIP while striking out 32 in as many innings.
Strasburg was also particularly great at home all year (2.56 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.9 K/9)—and that's where he'll make his playoff debut in the Division Series. That could be almost enough reason for the Giants and the Pirates not to want to win Wednesday's Wild Card Game.
Prediction: Clutch
Statistics are accurate through Sept. 29 and come from MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs, unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
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