Rays at The Deadline: Nothing Is Not A Bad Thing

As we get closer to the Major League Baseball trade deadline on July 31 (a significant day in my life with the official release of Rise of the Ancients–Annuna), it’s the time of year where fans of the Tampa Bay Rays get a little nervous.

For the longest time, the Tampa Bay franchise was a seller. Never in a pennant race, they would hock their veterans for prospects, reducing payroll while promising better days ahead.

Now that those days have arrived, fans nervously await to see if the Rays will make moves to keep the team in the chase.

The short answer, however, is that the team will probably not do anything.

While the Evil Empire and Red Sox Nation have the ability to take on massive amounts of payroll for “rent-a-players”—players who will be free agents in the coming season—the Rays have no such luxury.

Tampa Bay owner Stuart Sternberg has already stated he will not be adding additional payroll this season. Basically, they’ve extended themselves as far as they can go after paying top dollar to free agent Pat Burrell while seeing escalating salaries from their own players.

In addition, the big market teams can offer up prospects to entice deals for big name players but for small market franchises like Tampa Bay, prospects are the organization’s lifeblood. They can’t sign high dollar free agents in the off-season to make up for the talent they gave up at the trade deadline.

If the Rays are to make a move, it would need to be for a dollar-for-dollar equal or a monetary benefit to the club. Teams at the bottom of the standings aren’t looking to add payroll—their goal is similar to what the Rays had done such a short time ago.

So where does that leave us?

Well, to answer the question we’ll need to see where Tampa Bay is in the standings on July 31. With a huge series coming up with the Yankees as well as important showdowns with the Blue Jays, Tampa Bay could either be in a dead heat or far behind in the race for the post season by the end of this month.

If the Rays are seven or eight games back, don’t be surprised to see them as sellers once again.

If the Rays are Sellers
If the Rays find themselves well behind in the chase, some familiar names could be dangled for prospects to help lower payroll for next season.

Scott Kazmir—When Tampa Bay signed Kazmir a couple years ago to a mega deal, they believed they were getting the Kazmir that terrorized the American League when he debuted in the Tampa Bay lineup. Since an elbow injury, Kazmir has struggled to regain his form. He’s still effective, but not worth the $28.5 million dollars he’s to be paid over the next couple of seasons. The Rays could move Kaz for prospects and a large market team could get solid innings from him as a number four or five starter.

Pat Burrell—Pat is beginning to heat up and is known as a second half player but he has yet to $8 million-a-year contract he signed this off-season. A National League team in search of a power bat could be willing to part with some choice prospects to bring him back to the senior circuit.

Carlos Pena—Carlos Pena is another player with a high dollar figure that may not be long for the Rays. Pena turned 31 in May and will command $10 million dollars next season. While Pena is a power bat and nearly gold glove level in the field, his age could be a concern with the team. His batting average has dropped to .224 and without the benefit of PED’s, its unlikely he’ll get better with age.

Carl Crawford—If the Rays can’t move Kazmir, Pena or Burrell, Carl Crawford gets a big time bulls-eye on his chest. He’s had one of the greatest seasons in Rays history, but for Tampa Bay, it’s about economics. The Rays have a club option on Crawford for 2010 that will balloon his contract to $10 million dollars. For a franchise counting every penny, that’s a pretty big nut to crack. They wouldn’t want to lose him without compensation and his value will never be higher.

Andy Sonnanstine—Sonny could be a candidate for trade whether they are buyers or sellers. He’s put in a lot of solid innings at the big league level and a team looking for starting help may be looking at a guy like Sonnanstine to come in and be a dependable No. 4 or No. 5. He might be best suited for a National League team as he isn’t bad at the plate.

The Gabes—Both Gabe Kapler and Gabe Gross are candidates to be moved if the Rays fall out of the race. With Matt Joyce anointed as the future right fielder (he better be considering the Rays gave up Edwin Jackson for him), Kapler and Gross are short timers.

If the Rays are Buyers

If the Rays find themselves in the middle of the pennant chase, don’t look for them to do much. Kazmir, Burrell, and/or Sonnanstine could still be dealt if equal return was received in a need area.

Tampa Bay needs a closer in the worst way. They could use another starting pitcher that has the ability to pitch late into games and they need a bat, preferably in right field, that can hit left handed pitching consistently.

The Rays could have an interest Toronto closer Scott Downs, who is at an affordable $3 million price tag, but it’s highly unlikely the Blue Jays would trade in division. Same goes for the Orioles closer George Sherrill.

D-backs Closer Chad Qualls is also affordable at $2.5 mill, but the Rays will likely have competition for his services.

San Diego’s Heath Bell would be a great fit for Tampa Bay but again, there will be competition and the Padres are playing the “we don’t need to move him” card. Would the Rays offer up a top flight prospect for a guy who will hit free agency in 2010?

Same goes for closers Huston Street and Jose Valverde who both are free agents next season. 

The salary for Kerry Wood puts him out of the discussion for Rays closer prospects.

As for in the field, Tampa Bay has been mentioned as a candidate for Pittsburgh second baseman Freddy Sanchez, but with Aki Iwamura coming back from a knee injury and Ben Zobrist playing well as a platoon at second, I don’t see that as a likely move.

For starting pitching, you can scratch the name Roy Halladay off the list.

Toronto isn’t going to trade him to a division rival unless they get your entire farm system. Eric Bedard, Cliff Lee, Javier Vasquez, and most of the other starters who would be available make way too much money for the Rays to have an interest. Unless the other team takes a Burrell or Kazmir, the Rays are likely priced out of the starter market.

As for outfield trade prospects, the pickings are slim as far as the Rays are concerned.

Tampa Bay’s not going to be in the running for the Matt Holliday, Adam Dunn and Jermaine Dyes of the world. Those contracts are just too large for Tampa Bay to absorb. So you’re talking second tier guys like the Orioles’ Aubrey Huff. Huff can’t hit left handed pitching. Neither can the Marlins’ Jeremy Hermida, so that basically eliminates them as contributing to a need.

Florida’s outfielder Cody Ross would be a great addition at a good price but once again, the Rays are not into “rent-a-players” and may not be able to re-sign Ross. Playing center for the Marlins, would he have issues moving to right?

Bottom line, if Tampa Bay finds themselves in the thick of the pennant race don’t be disappointed if they sit on their hands while the Yankees and Red Sox make deals to try to improve their clubs for the stretch run.

For Tampa Bay, there’s more to consider than just this season. Trade a prospect today and you may accelerate your return to the bottom tomorrow. 

Remember Rays fans, Tampa Bay made no moves at the trading deadline in 2008 and that didn’t end to badly.