College Football Week 6 Predictions: Picking Top-25 Games Against the Spread
Two televisions will not suffice.
To truly appreciate the depth and overall brilliance of Week 6 of the college football season, you’re going to need more. Grab that credit card and take that SUV to the nearest electronics hub, fit as many flat screens in the back as you possibly can and worry about the credit card bill when it arrives.
After a relatively slow start to the season, we have patiently—or perhaps impatiently—waited for a slate of games just like this. From top to bottom, there might not be a more compelling lineup of matchups all year.
Because of this, you must treasure every moment on the seven to 10 flat screens you are soon to purchase.
In the world of point spreads, Week 6 presents plenty of intriguing stances made by oddsmakers. And as is tradition, we’re picking winners for all games featuring teams in the current AP Top 25.
After three winning weeks in a row, Week 5 served as a bit of a setback. Not to fear; we’re simply loosening up our arm. Monster week, ahoy.
All spreads are courtesy of Odds Shark unless noted otherwise.
No. 20 Ohio State at Maryland
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The Line: Ohio State (-7.5)
After looking broken, Kent State and a bye week appear to have repaired the Buckeyes, at least to a degree. Ohio State’s 50-28 win over Cincinnati was encouraging in some areas. In others—like the secondary—questions remain.
Although Urban Meyer’s team has covered just three times in the past nine games, the Buckeyes have done quite well on the road, covering in six of the past nine trips. On the other side of this matchup, Maryland—which would be ranked were it not for one horrendous half against West Virginia—has covered once in its past five games at home.
The Terrapins should be able to push the ball downfield, although injury concerns at quarterback make this difficult to handicap. With Ohio State looking more and more like Ohio State, however, it’s difficult not to lay the points.
The Pick: Ohio State (-7.5)
No. 16 USC vs. Arizona State
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The Line: USC (-11.5)
After opening up just north of a touchdown favorite, the USC support arrived shortly after this point spread was posted. As a result, the spread against Arizona State quickly crossed the double-digit threshold.
This, of course, likely has much to do with how the Sun Devils played against UCLA last Thursday. As only a slight underdog, ASU gave up 62 points to the Bruins and lost by 35.
USC’s first game since it lost at Boston College was far more encouraging. The Trojans beat (and covered against) Oregon State as a touchdown favorite in Week 5. On the year, despite the glaring blemish, USC has covered in three of its four games.
Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly is listed as “pretty questionable,” which doesn’t provide much help. Assuming he takes at least another week to heal, however, I’m laying the points and distancing myself from Boston College further.
The Pick: USC (-11.5)
No. 10 Michigan State vs. No. 19 Nebraska
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The Line: Michigan State (-7.5)
If you’re into Vegas trends, you’ve come to the right game
Nebraska has covered five of its past six games on the road. Michigan State has covered five of its last six matchups at home. And yes, both teams have covered five times in their last six games overall.
Now what?
Since its loss at Oregon, Michigan State has looked fabulous, albeit against weaker competition. Since nearly being upended by McNeese State as a five-touchdown favorite, Nebraska has not lost against the spread.
Something has to give. And although the Cornhuskers are live in this one—especially if they can avoid turnovers that did them in against Sparty last season—quarterback Connor Cook might be too much for this secondary to deal with at home.
The Pick: Michigan State (-7.5)
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No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 14 Stanford
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The Line: Stanford (-2)
After opening as a slight favorite, Notre Dame quickly became a home underdog. Perhaps this is because of Stanford's incredible run on the road. The Cardinal has covered in 15 of the past 20 games away from the home fans.
Not bad.
The Irish have also done quite well against the number of late, covering five of the past seven games and three of five matchups this season. The offensive line is a concern, quarterback Everett Golson has been fabulous. The defense has also played exceptionally well.
Stanford just missed out on covering the seven-and-a-half point spread against Washington last week, although the win was impressive. Given the tough, physical nature of that game along with the cross-country travel, the home underdog seems like the appropriate play despite the fascinating line move in the other direction.
The Pick: Notre Dame (+2)
No. 7 Baylor at Texas
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The Line: Baylor (-16.5)
The spread has not been kind to Texas when playing Baylor in recent years. In their past seven matchups, the Longhorns have covered just once against the Bears.
Despite dealing with an average point spread of 33.5 points in 2014, Baylor has yet to lose against the number. The offense is delivering as expected—scoring at least 45 points in each game—while a rebuilt defense has been better than many anticipated. (Yes, the schedule has also not been all that helpful in teaching us about this team.)
The Longhorns, meanwhile, have struggled on a variety of fronts. They did cover last week against Kansas, prompting a dismissal of head coach Charlie Weis, although injuries and suspensions have taken a toll.
Although home field should help, this is not an ideal matchup for Charlie Strong. It almost looks a little too easy laying the points, but I’m not wearing my contrarian hat for this particular matchup.
The Pick: Baylor (-16.5)
No. 6 Texas A&M at No. 12 Mississippi State
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The Line: Mississippi State (-1.5)
Admit it. You did not have this pegged as one of your critical SEC games heading into the year. No one did, although Texas A&M and Mississippi State have outperformed expectations by a significant margin.
From a Vegas standpoint, the Bulldogs have been excellent stretching back to last season. Dan Mullen’s group has covered eight times in its last nine contests, the only loss coming to UAB as a 29-point favorite. Texas A&M, although undefeated, has only covered three out of its last nine games and just two out of six on the road.
Although the Aggies offense could very well take over this game—as it did in the second half against Arkansas—Mississippi State has a defensive line (and quarterback) to win outright and cover the spread. I also wonder if playing against the biggest offensive line in CFB will have an impact on A&M one week later.
The Pick: Mississippi State (-1.5)
No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 15 LSU
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The Line: Auburn (-7.5)
Despite its offensive overhaul and quarterback struggles, LSU has covered in four of its past five games. The results aren’t nearly as favorable when facing Auburn, as Les Miles’ group has covered just three times in its past nine matchups.
Auburn, meanwhile,has finally shown some Vegas weakness. The Tigers—of the Auburn variety—have covered 13 out of its last 15 games and eight of the past nine at home. They enter this week on a two-game coverless streak, however, after not losing against the spread for a full year.
It would appear that LSU will give Brandon Harris, the gifted freshman quarterback, his very first start. Although now would be the time to invest in Harris long-term, this is not the ideal situation to step into.
The Pick: Auburn (-7.5)
No. 4 Oklahoma at No. 25 TCU
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The Line: Oklahoma (-4.5)
This is, without question, the most intriguing point spread of the weekend. Oklahoma looks very much like the No. 1 team in the country, and yet the oddsmakers believe that TCU is live at home.
The Horned Frogs somewhat quietly crashed the Top 25 this week following their 56-0 drubbing of woeful SMU as a 31-point point favorite. This victory has TCU entering this game perfect against the spread.
Oklahoma has been no slouch in this department, covering three of its four games including the last two in impressive fashion. Stretching back to last season, the Sooners are a perfect 5-of-5 on the road against the number.
TCU is one of the few programs in the Big 12—perhaps the only one—that can compete with Oklahoma’s physicality. Ultimately, the Sooners sneak out of Texas with a win, but they do so with a field goal.
In a weekend rife with incredible matchups, this one has a chance to be special.
The Pick: TCU (+4.5)
No. 3 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss
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The Line: Alabama (-6.5)
How much do you trust Bo Wallace?
This is the internal conversation gamblers will have before they pull the trigger on Alabama-Ole Miss. At his best, Wallace can be absolutely brilliant. At his worst, he can single-handedly toss away the game, as he tried to do against Boise State in Week 1.
Alabama will hit the road having been favored in 59 consecutive games. In recent weeks, however, the spread has not been kind to the Crimson Tide. Nick Saban’s team has covered just once in its last six games and once in the last six on the road. Including its bowl game, Ole Miss has covered its last five matchups.
Quarterbacks will ultimately decide this game. And while Blake Sims is far from a sure thing, Alabama has the offense (and defense) to win this game by double digits.
The Pick: Alabama (-6.5)
No. 2 Oregon vs. Arizona
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The Line: Oregon (-23.5)
Let’s go back to last season, right around the time you were preparing to carve up a Thanksgiving turkey. Arizona embarrassed Oregon at home, beating the Ducks 42-16 and picking off Marcus Mariota for the first time all year.
It’s a new season, and the venues have changed. And regardless of what happened last year—and how bad Mariota’s knee was at the time—the point spread has been set at a robust 23.5. Oregon, having just enjoyed a bye, still has serious concerns with its offensive line. The once cover-friendly Ducks have also won against the number just twice in the last nine games.
Arizona isn’t any better against the spread, covering just one out of the past six matchups on the road. With a young quarterback in play and revenge on the brain, look for Oregon to exorcise some demons at home.
The Pick: Oregon (-23.5)
Other Top-25 Games
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No. 23 Kansas State (NL) vs. Texas Tech
Injury concerns for Davis Webb have prompted most sportsbooks to holster their line-making duties for this game. Given Texas Tech’s defensive woes, however, Kansas State should thrive here.
The Pick: None (Although K-State should win comfortably)
No. 22 East Carolina (-41) vs. SMU
SMU has scored 12 points this season and has yet to kick an extra point. Yet, the Mustangs could also cover this spread considering East Carolina’s predictable disinterest. With that said, how can you possibly gobble up those points with any comfort?
The Pick: East Carolina (-41)
No. 21 Oklahoma State (-17) vs. Iowa State
The Pokes could have easily blown out Texas Tech last week had it not been for a few mistakes. Still, Iowa State—fresh off a Baylor blowout—might have enough offense to deliver a similar “hang around” effort.
The Pick: Iowa State (+17)
No. 18 BYU (-21) vs. Utah State
Chuckie Keeton’s status for this game is up in the air. Even with this great unknown, BYU will be too fast on both sides for the Aggies.
The Pick: BYU (-21)
No. 17 Wisconsin (-8) at Northwestern
Even with Northwestern’s bounce back against Penn State last week, this line feels…light. Wisconsin gets the win, but the Wildcats hang around for a while in Evanston.
The Pick: Northwestern (+8)
No. 13 Georgia (-33.5) vs. Vanderbilt
The Bulldogs are by no means perfect, and a critical matchup with Missouri is on deck. Vanderbilt won’t be able to keep this close, although it will be close enough to cash with bigger games looming.
The Pick: Vanderbilt (+33.5)
No. 8 UCLA (-13) vs. Utah
Utah let a 21-point lead slip away. UCLA just scored another touchdown against Arizona State. The actual difference between these two teams is somewhere in between, and Utah should be able to keep it close enough.
The Pick: Utah (+13)
No. 1 Florida State (-39) vs. Wake Forest
The Seminoles aren’t where they want to be, but Wake Forest has 140 rushes for 146 yards this season. Seriously. At some point, Florida State will play better. Now feels like as good a time as any.
The Pick: Florida State (-39)
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
