NL Wild Card Game 2014: Pirates vs. Giants Breakdown and Predictions

The 2014 MLB postseason continues Wednesday with the Pittsburgh Pirates set to host the San Francisco Giants in the National League Wild Card Game (8:00 p.m. ET, TV: ESPN).

Pittsburgh captured the top NL wild-card spot to secure its second consecutive postseason berth, finishing two games back of the division-winning St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central.

San Francisco is returning to the playoffs for the third time in the last five years after tying the Pirates in the wild-card race and finishing six games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.

The Pirates clinched home-field advantage by winning the regular-season series against the Giants 4-2, as they took two of three games in both of their meetings. Overall, they outscored the Giants 29-23.

The Giants will send ace Madison Bumgarner to the mound Wednesday, while Edinson Volquez will toe the slab for the Pirates with the season on the line.

But which club is best prepared to move on to the NLDS?

Here’s an in-depth look at the NL Wild Card Game matchup between the Pirates and Giants.

Madison Bumgarner vs. Pirates Lineup

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

With ace Madison Bumgarner set to start Wednesday’s NL Wild Card Game, the Giants have to like their chances of moving on to the next round.

In his fourth big league season, Bumgarner, 25, posted an 18-10 overall record to go along with a 2.98 ERA (3.05 FIP), 1.09 WHIP and 219-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 217.1 innings.

Though Bumgarner is 1-3 with a 3.24 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates, it’s worth noting that the Pirates shelled the left-hander for five runs on six hits over four innings this season in their only meeting.

In his only career start at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park, Bumgarner struck out seven batters and yielded one earned run on five hits in six innings.

Here's a look at how Pittsburgh's projected starting lineup has fared against Bumgarner in their careers:

1. 3B Josh Harrison	4-for-5, HR, BB
2. RF Travis Snider	N/A
3. CF Andrew McCutchen	2-for-10, 2 BB, 2 K
4. 2B Neil Walker	3-for-9, K
5. C Russell Martin	3-for-7, BB, K
6. LF Starling Marte	N/A
7. 1B Gaby Sanchez	3-for-9, 2 BB, 3 K
8. SS Jordy Mercer	3-for-7, K

The Pirates have had modest success in their careers against Bumgarner, though none of the team’s projected starters have logged more than nine career at-bats against the southpaw.

McCutchen, Walker, Martin, Sanchez and Mercer all have exactly three hits against Bumgarner, while Harrison has enjoyed the most success with four hits in five at-bats including a home run.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Pirates handle their right field situation in the game, as the team’s two best options, Snider and Gregory Polanco, are both left-handed hitters. Snider is yet to face Bumgarner in his career, while Polanco is 0-for-1 with an RBI. They could also consider inserting right-handed hitting Jose Tabata in the lineup, though he isn't an obvious upgrade over the aforementioned players, with an 0-for-7 career mark and two strikeouts against the Giants’ ace.

However, Bumgarner is one of baseball’s more accomplished postseason pitchers after guiding the Giants to World Series titles in 2010 and 2012. Overall, the 25-year-old owns a 3-2 record in six postseason starts, with a 3.79 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 35.2 innings.

Edinson Volquez vs. Giants Lineup

John Bazemore/Associated Press

In 2013, Francisco Liriano took the mound for the Pirates in the NL Wild Card Game. This year, that honor belongs to Edinson Volquez.

Volzquez, 31, is an NL Comeback Player of the Year candidate after he posted an MLB-worst 5.71 ERA in 2013.

Signed by the Pirates during the offseason, Volquez helped stabilize the back end of the team’s starting rotation this year, pitching to a 13-7 record and 3.04 ERA in 192.2 innings over 31 starts. However, the right-hander’s 4.15 FIP and 4.20 xFIP suggest that his success was at least partly rooted in luck, as he posted the highest strand rate (77.5 percent) of his nine-year career.

Yet it’s hard to discount Volquez’s momentum entering the postseason after dominating over final two months of the regular season. Making 11 starts between August and September, Volquez was a perfect 5-0 and registered a 1.63 ERA in 69.2 innings during that time frame.

Making 14 of his 31 starts at PNC Park this season, Volquez registered a solid 3.06 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 106 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .225 batting average.

The last and only time Volquez pitched in the postseason was 2010, when he started Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS for the Reds against the Phillies. However, it turned out to be a forgettable outing for the right-hander, as he allowed four earned runs on four hits and two walks and departed the game after only 1.2 innings.

Here is a look at how Volquez has fared against San Francisco’s projected lineup during his nine-year career:

1. CF Gregor Blanco	5-for-19 (.263), 3 BB, 9 K
2. 2B Joe Panik	N/A
3. C Buster Posey	5-for-9, 2 2B, 2 BB, K
4. 3B Pablo Sandoval	6-for-13 (.462), 3 2B, K
5. RF Hunter Pence	7-for-36 (.194), 3 HR, 2 2B, 3B, 9 RBI, 5 BB, 16 K
6. 1B Brandon Belt	8-for-18 (.444), HR, 2B, 5 RBI, 4 K
7. SS Brandon Crawford	3-for-20 (.150), 7 K
8. LF Travis Ishikawa	1-for-4, 2 BB

Many of San Francisco’s hitters have fared well against Volquez, as Posey (.556), Sandoval (.462) and Belt (.444) are all batting roughly .500 against the right-hander. However, it’ll be up to the top of the Giants’ order, specifically Gregor Blanco (.263) and Joe Panik, to set the table for the team’s heavy hitters.

Hunter Pence (.194) hasn’t hit for average against Volquez like many of his teammates, but he has shown the most power with six of his seven hits going for extra bases.

Unfortunately, the team will be without Angel Pagan, their usual center fielder and leadoff hitter during the regular season, as he was forced to undergo season-ending back surgery. Similarly, slugger Mike Morse (oblique), who hit 16 home runs and 32 doubles during the regular season, is expected to be limited to pinch-hit duties Wednesday.

Lastly, the Giants are expected to deploy Travis Ishikawa—the Pirates’ Opening Day first baseman—in left field over Juan Perez in the NL Wild Card Game.

Bullpen Breakdown

Al Behrman/Associated Press

The Wild Card matchup between the Pirates and Giants will feature two of the better bullpens in the National League.

Pirates	Stat Category	Giants
3.28	ERA	3.01
3.72	FIP	3.84
.675	OPS	.614
7.97	K/9	8.76
3.06	BB/9	3.78
77.0%	LOB%	75.1%
49.8%	GB%	48.8%

The Pirates' bullpen features a dangerous duo in left-handed setup man Tony Watson (10-2, 1.63 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), who struck out 81 batters in 77.1 innings and held left-handed batters to a .182 batting average, and closer Mark Melancon, who saved 33 games in 37 opportunities in addition to posting a stellar 1.90 ERA with 71 strikeouts in 71 innings.

Meanwhile, September call-up John Holdzkom has emerged as another late-inning weapon, as the hard-throwing, palm-balling right-hander struck out 14 batters and allowed just four hits in nine innings.

On the season, the Pirates’ bullpen ranked fifth in the NL in ERA (3.28 ERA) and WHIP (1.24) and 11th in opponents’ batting average (.243).

The Giants’ bullpen was arguably the best in the NL, ranking first in opponents’ batting average (.217), WHIP (1.07) and walks allowed (131) and third in ERA (3.01).

Right-hander Sergio Romo (3.72 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 64 games) and Santiago Casilla (1.70 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 54 games) split closing duties this season, with Romo saving 23 of 28 games and Casilla notching 19 in 23 chances.

The team also received strong performances from left-handers Javier Lopez (3.11 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 65 games) and Jeremy Affeldt (2.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 62 games), while right-hander Jean Machi registered a 2.58 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 66.1 innings over a team-leading 71 appearances.

Bench Breakdown

Beck Diefenbach/Associated Press

Pirates Projected Bench

C Chris Stewart

1B Ike Davis

IF Clint Barmes

IF Brent Morel

OF Gregory Polanco

OF Jose Tabata

The Pirates’ bench stands out for its mix of right- and left-handed hitters, as it’ll allow manager Clint Hurdle to play matchups as he sees fit in Wednesday’s Wild Card Game.

Davis, acquired from the Mets in mid-April, enjoyed a modest resurgence with his new club, batting .235/.343/.378 with 10 home runs, 18 doubles and 46 RBI in 131 games.

Meanwhile, Polanco, who entered the season as Pittsburgh’s top prospect as well as one of baseball’s top prospects, took the league by storm following his call-up on June 10, but his production fell off in the subsequent months and ultimately resulted in a demotion to Triple-A in late August.

Overall, the 23-year-old outfielder batted just .201/.272/.311 with 49 strikeouts over his final 73 games during the regular season. However, Polanco did swipe 14 bags in 19 attempts on the year, so expect him to be the first off the bench Wednesday should the Pirates need a pinch runner.

Giants Projected Bench 

C Andrew Susac

IF Joaquin Arias

IF Matt Duffy

OF Juan Perez

OF Chris Dominguez

OF/1B Mike Morse

The Giants’ bench is highlighted by right-hander power, as Susac (11 XBH in 88 at-bats), Morse (51 XBH in 438 at-bats) and Dominguez (one home run in 17 at-bats) each have the potential to change the outcome of a game with one swing.

Arias and Duffy give the Giants infield depth off the bench, though neither hitter has a particularly strong bat, while Perez is likely to enter the game with a left-handed pitcher on the mound.

Bruce Bochy vs. Clint Hurdle

Matt York/Associated Press

Bruce Bochy enters the 2014 postseason with more experience than any other manager, as he has captured three pennants and two World Series titles in seven total trips to the playoffs. Overall, the Giants’ skipper owns a career managerial record of 1,618-1,604, which translates to a .502 winning percentage.

Pirates’ skipper Clint Hurdle, the 2013 NL Manager of the Year, has three postseason appearances and one pennant to his name. He’s now led the Pirates to the playoffs in back-to-back years and owns an 867-940 managerial record in 12 seasons.

Home-Field Advantage

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

PNC Park Outfield Dimensions

Left Field	325 ft.
Left-Center Field	389 ft.
Center Field	399 ft.
Right-Center Field	375 ft.
Right Field	320 ft.

PNC Park 2014 Park Factors

Category	Park Factor	MLB Rank
Runs	0.977	17th
Home Runs	0.711	28th
Hits	1.042	6th
Doubles	1.082	6th
Triples	0.806	19th
Walks	0.986	16th

The spacious dimensions of PNC Park make it a pitcher-friendly stadium, which is reflected by two of the lower (28th) home run and runs scored (17th) factors in the major leagues. However, other notable factors such as hits and doubles highlight that the park does cater to hitters who consistently put the ball in play and spray line drives from line to line.

Pittsburgh’s 51-30 home record during the regular season was tops in the NL and second in the major leagues behind the Angels, while the Giants posted a respectable 43-38 record on the road.

The Pirates took two of three games from the Giants this season at PNC Park, outscoring them 16-15 in those contests.

Game Prediction and Analysis

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Wednesday’s NL Wild Card Game will come down to starting pitching, with the Giants sending ace Madison Bumgarner to the mound and the Pirates starting a largely unproven Edinson Volquez.

With two World Series titles under his belt, it’s no secret what Bumgarner is capable of in a postseason format. Volquez, on the other hand, is huge wild card; if he can keep the Giants off the board in the early innings and get the ball to the bullpen, then the Pirates should have a realistic chance of taking the game.

The Giants obviously have more postseason experience, but it won’t be easy for them to tame a red-hot Pittsburgh offense in front a blackout crowd at PNC Park.

The game will feature more offense than expected and likely will go down to the last out, but the Pirates should still come out on top and move on to face the Nationals in the NLDS.

Game Prediction: Pirates 5, Giants 3