ALDS 2014: Angels vs. Royals Position-by-Position Breakdown, Predictions
Two of the American League’s top teams will square off when the Los Angeles Angels take on the Kansas City Royals in the American League Division Series.
The series starts at Angel Stadium, with Game 1 scheduled for Thursday at 9 p.m. ET on TBS.
The Angels ran away with the AL West crown to make the postseason for the first time in the last four years, as the team won an MLB-leading 98 games while also posting the game's best home record (52-39). Beyond that, the Angels offense ranked third in the AL in batting average (.259), fourth in slugging (.406) and OPS (.728) and tied for fourth in home runs (155) with the White Sox and Tigers.
Meanwhile, the Royals are coming off a dramatic win in the AL Wild Card Game, as they defeated the A’s 9-8 in 12 innings in front of an electric crowd at Kauffman Stadium.
Yet, while Angels offense ranked among the AL leaders in numerous categories, the Royals pitching staff was just as impressive, ranking fourth in ERA (3.51), seventh in WHIP (1.26) and eighth in opponents’ batting average (.250) while also allowing the third-fewest home runs (128) in the league.
On the other side of the ball, Royals hitters collectively posted the second-highest batting average in the AL (.263) and also paced the league in stolen bases (153). However, the Royals were the only MLB team to finish the regular season with fewer than 100 home runs (95).
Playoff baseball wouldn’t be playoff baseball without the drama and surprises, and after Tuesday’s AL Wild Card Game, it’s clear that anything can happen this October.
Here's a look at how the Angels and Royals match up at each position in the ALDS.
Catcher
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2014 was one of Chris Iannetta’s better defensive seasons, as he threw out 30 percent (21 of 70) of attempted base stealers and permitted only four passed balls. However, the 31-year-old backstop will have his work cut out for him with the Royals, who led the major leagues with 153 bases this season.
Iannetta may be a solid defender, but he’s nothing compared to All-Star Salvador Perez, the hero of Tuesday’s AL Wild Card Game. Perez threw out 30 percent (25 of 82) of attempted base stealers and also picked off seven this season, while his defense saved the Royals a total of eight runs. Plus, according to FanGraphs, the 24-year-old ranks as the game’s best defensive catcher.
Offensively, Iannetta has the ability to work deep counts and get on base, while Perez is more strikeout prone but has the power to change a game, thus giving the Royals the edge.
Advantage: Royals
First Base
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Albert Pujols had a resurgent year for the Angels, as the three-time MVP batted .272/.324/.466 while ranking third among AL first baseman in home runs (28) and RBI (105) and second in doubles (37).
It’s also hard to ignore Pujols’ tremendous October resume, as he enters the ALDS with 74 games of playoff experience after seven trips to the postseason with the St. Louis Cardinals. The 34-year-old slugger’s .330/.439/.607 career batting line in 321 postseason plate appearances, not to mention his 18 home runs and 18 doubles, puts him in historic company.
Eric Hosmer had another disappointing first half of the season as the Royals first baseman, batting .268/.315/.382 with six home runs, 26 doubles and 42 RBI. The 24-year-old left-handed hitter played in just 10 games after the All-Star break before suffering a stress fracture in his right hand—an injury that kept him out for exactly a month.
However, things seemed to click for Hosmer upon his return from the disabled list. In his final 27 games of the regular season, the first baseman batted .287/.343/.489 with 12 extra-base hits and 12 RBI over 102 plate appearances, thus proving his hand injury was no longer an issue.
More importantly, Hosmer’s late-season hot streak carried over into the AL Wild Card Game, where he was 3-for-4 with a triple, two runs scored, two walks and an RBI.
Advantage: Angels
Second Base
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With a 115 wRC+ (adjusted runs created), Howie Kendrick ranked as the 11th-most productive second baseman in the American League this season. The 31-year-old had another solid offensive campaign for the Angels, batting .293/.347/.397 in 674 plate appearances to go along with 85 runs scored and 14 stolen bases.
Meanwhile, Omar Infante’s production (76 wRC+) ranked dead last among all qualified AL second basemen, as he batted a pedestrian .252/.295/.337 with 50 runs scored in 575 plate appearances.
Though Kendrick’s consistent bat already gives him the edge, it’s still worth noting that he’s also the stronger defender at the keystone, ranking fourth at the position with nine runs saved.
Advantage: Angels
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Third Base
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The Angels acquired David Freese before the season to fill their glaring hole at third base, and the 2011 NLCS and World Series MVP held his own with a modest .260/.321/.383 batting line, 10 home runs and 55 RBI while playing in 134 games. The 31-year-old third baseman did most of his damage following the All-Star break, posting a .743 OPS with 22 extra-base hits in 63 games.
Mike Moustakas battled through a dismal first half of the season, as he batted just .192 and even spent time down in Triple-A. Though he, like Freese, fared better after All-Star break, the 26-year-old still finished the regular season with the worst batting average (.215) and on-base percentage (.271) among AL third basemen with at least 500 plate appearances, while his .361 slugging percentage and 76 wRC+ ranked ahead of only Matt Dominguez.
Advantage: Angels
Shortstop
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Erick Aybar was arguably the most valuable offensive shortstop in the AL this season other than Jose Reyes, as he ranked second among all qualified players at the position in wRC+ (101) and RBI (68) and third in batting average (.278) and on-base percentage (.321). He also stole 16 bases, scored 77 runs and collected 41 extra-base hits.
Alcides Escobar’s numbers weren’t far off Aybar’s, as he ranked first in stolen bases (31) and triples (five), second in batting average (.285) and fourth in OPS (.694). Furthermore, his 165 hits and 34 doubles ranked second and third, respectively, in the league.
While both shortstops are comparable in terms of runs saved with their defense, Aybar’s 8.0 UZR/150 (range factor per 150 games) gives him a slight edge over Escobar (1.3 UZR/150).
Advantage: Angels
Left Field
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Alex Gordon emerged as the AL’s top left fielder this season as well as a legitimate MVP candidate, batting .266/.351/.432 with 19 home runs, 34 doubles and 74 RBI while playing in 156 games. Though there were better hitters than Gordon at the position, nobody could match the soon-to-be four-time Gold Glove Award winner’s defensive prowess, as his 27 runs saved and 22.6 UZR/150 were both tops among AL left fielders—and it wasn’t even close.
Josh Hamilton is confident he’ll be healthy for Game 1 of the ALDS, though that should be taken with a grain of salt considering the Angels left fielder has played in just one game since Sept. 4, when he was first bothered by right shoulder soreness followed by right rib and chest pain.
In general, injuries limited the 33-year-old to only 89 games this season, during which he batted .263/.331/.414 with 10 home runs, 21 doubles and 44 RBI in 89 games. However, he also struck out 108 times during than span, compared to just 32 walks, and batted just .228/.283/.318 with six home runs in 43 games following the All-Star break.
Advantage: Royals
Center Field
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It was yet another monster season for Mike Trout, as he batted .287 while leading the American League in both runs (115) and RBI (111) and ranking third in home runs (36), triples (nine), slugging percentage (.561) and OPS (.939). More impressively, the 23-year-old led all MLB position players in WAR (7.8) and finished second to Andrew McCutchen in wRC+ (167).
Lorenzo Cain, 28, swiped a career-high 27 bases this season to go along with his best batting average since he batted .306 over 43 games as a rookie in 2010.
Plus, he sustained his success over the course of the season while shifting between the No. 1 and No. 3 spots in the Royals batting order. As the team’s leadoff hitter, Cain batted .284 with nine runs, eight RBI and a .327 on-base percentage. When batting third in the order, he has raked to the tune of a .356/.408/.489 batting line over 49 plate appearances.
Surprisingly, Cain is actually a superior defender compared to Trout, at least statistically speaking. He ranked third among center fielders (with at least 700 innings at the position) in runs saved (14 DRS) and fourth in zone rating (18.7 UZR/150) this season, whereas Trout ranked 20th (minus-9 DRS) and 18th (minus-10.1 UZR/150), respectively.
However, not even Gold Glove-caliber defense puts Cain ahead of the game’s best player.
Advantage: Angels
Right Field
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When one thinks of the game’s more productive right fielders, names like Jose Bautista, Giancarlo Stanton and Hunter Pence are the first to come to mind. And then there’s the Angels’ Kole Calhoun, who finished seventh among all qualified right fielders in both wRC+ (125) and WAR (3.6) in what was a breakout campaign.
And though he played in only 127 games, Calhoun ranked second among qualified AL right fielders in runs scored (90), doubles (31) and isolated power (.178).
Nori Aoki quietly put together a strong season as the Royals’ everyday right fielder, batting .285/.349/.360 with 29 extra-base hits in 132 games while tying Alex Rios for the AL league lead in stolen bases (17) at the position.
However, while Aoki stands out for his bat-to-ball ability, on-base skills and speed as the Royals’ No. 2 hitter, Calhoun represents a unique brand of leadoff hitter with his left-handed power (17 HR, .178 ISO) and aggressive approach (19.4 percent strikeout rate).
Advantage: Angels
Designated Hitter
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C.J. Cron quietly emerged as one of the best young power hitters in the American League this season, as the 24-year-old slugged 11 home runs in just 253 plate appearances with the Angels.
Additionally, Cron ranked third in isolated power (.194) and fourth in slugging (.450) among AL rookies, though he also ranked toward the bottom of the league in strikeout rate (24.1 percent) and pitches swung at outside the strike zone (40.7 percent).
Billy Butler, on the other hand, doesn’t have Cron’s power frequency, evidenced by his nine home runs and .107 ISO in 603 plate appearances during the regular season, but he’s more adept at making contact and getting on base compared to the rookie.
The 28-year-old batted only .271/.323/.379 over a 151 games, translating to a disappointing 97 wRC+, but he saw his numbers begin to trend in the right direction over the final month of the season.
Advantage: Royals
Bench
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Projected ALDS Benches for Angels, Royals
| Angels | Royals |
| C Hank Conger | C Erik Kratz |
| IF Gordon Beckham | IF Jayson Nix |
| OF Brennan Boesch | OF Jarrod Dyson |
| OF Tony Campana | OF Terrance Gore |
| OF Collin Cowgill | OF Josh Willingham |
Both teams are likely to assemble their respective ALDS benches in a similar manner, with a backup catcher, utility infielder, power-hitting outfielder and a pair of speedy, defensive-oriented outfielders.
However, the Royals’ projected bench has the potential to make a greater impact on the club’s postseason success, as was the case in the AL Wild Card Game on Tuesday night.
Dyson (.324 OBP, 36 SB) paced the Royals in stolen bases this season, while September call-up Terrance Gore—arguably the fastest player in this year’s postseason—went 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts and scored five runs despite logging only one regular-season at-bat.
Kratz, Nix and Willingham all stand out for their respective abilities to hit left-handed pitching, with the latter two players likely to appear late in games as pinch hitters.
Advantage: Royals
Starting Rotation
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By the Numbers: Comparing Angels/Royals Starting Rotations
| Angels | Stat Category | Royals |
| 3.62 | ERA | 3.60 |
| 3.68 | FIP | 3.89 |
| 7.70 | K/9 | 6.59 |
| 2.97 | BB/9 | 2.46 |
| 0.80 | HR/9 | 0.88 |
| 41.8% | GB% | 42.1% |
Projected Angels Rotation vs. Royals (Career)
| 1. RHP Jered Weaver | 12 GS, 7-4, 77.1 IP, 2.21 ERA, 1.112 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, .612 OPS |
| 2. LHP C.J. Wilson | 7 GS, 4-0, 56.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, .672 OPS |
| 3. RHP Matt Shoemaker | 2 GS, 0-1, 9.0 IP, 10.00 ERA, 2.333 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 1.006 OPS |
| 4. LHP Hector Santiago | 4 GS, 1-0, 30.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, .470 OPS |
A healthy Matt Shoemaker should make the Angels’ postseason rotation more dangerous, and the rookie right-hander reportedly "felt great" following a bullpen session Sunday, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
Veterans Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson are expected to start the first two games of the ALDS against the Royals, with Shoemaker lined up to start Game 3. After that, the Angels will have to decide between starting Hector Santiago and rookie Cory Rasmus for Game 4, with Santiago owning strong career numbers against the Royals but Rasmus representing the hotter hand.
Projected Royals Rotation vs. Angels (Career)
| 1. LHP Danny Duffy | 1 GS, 0-1, 6.0 IP, 7.50 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 1.087 OPS |
| 2. RHP Yordano Ventura | 1 GS, 0-1, 4.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.750 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, .842 OPS |
| 3. RHP James Shields | 13 GS, 6-3, 89.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.283 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, .758 OPS |
| 4. LHP Jason Vargas | 14 GS, 5-4, 95.1 IP, 3.02 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, .682 OPS |
The Kansas City Royals starting rotation has been excellent this season, led by ace James Shields and bolstered by a terrific rookie season from Yordano Ventura and an impressive return from injury by Danny Duffy.
However, the Royals will be forced to shake up their projected rotation after starting Shields in the AL Wild Card Game, and either Duffy or Ventura appear to be the top candidates to pitch Game 1 of the ALDS.
The team could potentially start right-hander Jeremy Guthrie instead of southpaw Jason Vargas in Game 4 of the series, though the latter’s strong track record against Angel hitters as well as his knowledge of them from his recent tenure with the club makes him the stronger candidate.
Advantage: Royals
Bullpen
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By the Numbers: Comparing Angels/Royals Bullpens
| Angels | Stat Category | Royals |
| 3.52 | ERA | 3.30 |
| 3.40 | FIP | 3.29 |
| 8.92 | K/9 | 8.65 |
| 3.22 | BB/9 | 3.30 |
| 0.70 | HR/9 | 0.62 |
| 74.0% | LOB% | 73.7% |
Projected Angels ALDS Bullpen
RHP Cory Rasmus
RHP Fernando Salas
LHP Joe Thatcher
RHP Jason Grilli
RHP Kevin Jepsen
RHP Joe Smith
RHP Huston Street
The Angels bullpen has been solid since Huston Street (17 saves, 1.71 ERA) and Jason Grilli (3.48 ERA) were acquired at the deadline, and the team also has received strong performances from right-handers Joe Smith (15 saves, 1.81 ERA) and Kevin Jepsen (2.63 ERA).
The only major concern heading into the postseason is the Angels’ lack of a reliable left-handed reliever after Joe Thatcher (8.53 ERA). However, that could still change should the team decide to start Rasmus (2.68 ERA, 9.2 K/9) in Game 4 over Santiago, which in turn would give it another southpaw in the bullpen.
Overall, the Angels bullpen ranked 14th in the major leagues in ERA (3.52), ninth in FIP (3.40) and eighth in strikeouts per nine innings (8.92).
Projected Royals ALDS Bullpen
RHP Jeremy Guthrie
LHP Brandon Finnegan
RHP Jason Frasor
RHP Kelvin Herrera
LHP Scott Downs
RHP Wade Davis
RHP Greg Holland
The Royals boast the lethal late-inning duo of setup man Wade Davis (1.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP), who struck out 109 batters and allowed just five extra-base hits (three doubles, two triples) in 72 innings, and lights-out closer Greg Holland, who saved 46 games in 48 opportunities in addition to posting a stellar 1.44 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 62.1 innings. Right-hander Kelvin Herrera also dominated in a late-inning role, with a 1.41 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 70 innings.
Jason Frasor (1.53 ERA) and first-round draft pick Brandon Finnegan (1.29 ERA, 12.9 K/9) were lights out during the regular season, just as they were in the Wild Card Game, and both relievers give the Royals the luxury of putting their starters on a short leash and bridge the gap to Herrera/Davis/Holland.
On the season, the Royals bullpen ranked fifth in the AL in ERA (3.30 ERA) and eighth in opponents’ batting average (.235) and WHIP (1.24) while allowing fewer home runs (32) than any other team.
Advantage: Royals
Series Predictions
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The Royals will be forced to adjust their starting rotation for the ALDS after starting ace James Shields in the Wild Card Game. With Shields unlikely to return to the mound until Game 3, the Royals will likely start a pair of young, unproven pitchers in Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura (but not necessarily in that order) in Games 1 and 2.
This could turn out to be a huge advantage for the hard-hitting Angels, especially when considering that they hit both pitchers well in their only meetings this season.
For that reason, I think the Angels will jump out to a quick 2-0 series lead before heading back to Kansas City. However, after the battle waged by the Royals in Tuesday’s Wild Card Game, it’s hard to see them dropping three consecutive games to the Angels.
The Royals, who boast a better starting rotation, should once again take it down to the wire in Game 5, but the Angels offense is simply too good to lose the series.
Series Prediction: Angels 3, Royals 2
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