NLDS 2014: Nats vs. Giants Position-by-Position Breakdown, Predictions
Two of the Nationals League’s top teams will square off when the Washington Nationals take on the San Francisco Giants in the National League Division Series.
The series starts at Nationals Park, with Game 1 scheduled for Friday at 3:07 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
The Nationals ran away with the NL East crown to make the postseason for the second time in the last three years, as the team won an NL-best 96 games while tying for the league’s best home record (51-30). Beyond that, the Nationals offense ranked fifth in the NL in batting average (.253) and slugging percentage (.393), and fourth in home runs (152) and OPS (.714).
The Giants, meanwhile, are coming off an impressive win in the NL Wild Card Game, as they defeated the Pirates 8-0 behind a four-hit shutout from Madison Bumgarner.
Game 1 of the NLDS will be the eighth time the two teams have squared off this season. The Nationals won the regular-season series, 5-2, and outscored the Giants by 11 runs.
Playoff baseball wouldn’t be playoff baseball without the drama and surprises, and after each league’s respective Wild Card Games this week, it’s clear that anything can (and probably will) happen this October.
Here's a look at how the Nationals and Giants match up at each position in the NLDS.
Catcher
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Wilson Ramos was bit by the injury bug once again this year, as he suffered a fractured left hamate bone in the Nats' season opener and then missed more than a month while on the disabled list. His power wasn’t there after returning to action, while a rough final month of the season led to a disappointing .267/.299/.399 overall batting line. The injury didn’t slow down Ramos on the other side of the ball, however, as he matched his career-best caught stealing rate of 28 percent.
And then there’s Buster Posey, the two-time World Series champion and 2012 NL MVP. Posey ranked second among major league catchers with a 5.7 WAR this season, a product of a monster second half in which he hit .354/.403/.575 with 12 home runs, 13 doubles and 43 RBI in 62 games.
Posey also has serious momentum heading into the NLDS after batting .393/.436/.607 with 10 extra-base hits in August, and then going 2-for-5 with an RBI in the NL Wild Card Game.
Advantage: Giants
First Base
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Brandon Belt was cleared of his concussion symptoms and rejoined the Giants’ lineup on Sept. 15, and he made up for some of the lost time by hitting safely in five of his final six games, with a .381/.458/.619 batting line and three extra-base hits in 24 plate appearances during that time frame.
Adam LaRoche had a disappointing 2013 campaign after re-signing with the Nationals, but the 35-year-old bounced back this season to hit .259/.362/.455 with 26 homers and 92 RBI in 140 games. And even though he struggled after the All-Star break, LaRoche will at least carry some momentum into the postseason after posting an .892 OPS with seven home runs and 22 RBI in September.
Advantage: Nationals
Second Base
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In 72 games after taking over as San Francisco’s everyday second baseman, Joe Panik posted an impressive .306/.344/.369 batting line to go along with 10 doubles, two triples, one home run and 18 RBI over 286 plate appearances.
Panik also carved out an important role in the top third of the lineup, as he batted .303/.333/.361 with 21 runs scored in 37 games as the team’s two-hole hitter. He’s also capable of hitting same-side pitching, evidenced by his .373/.381/.458 batting line this season in 84 plate appearances against southpaws.
Ryan Zimmerman’s hamstring injury and subsequent trip to the disabled list prompted the Nationals to acquire veteran Asdrubal Cabrera from the Indians at the non-waiver trade deadline. The switch-hitter, who moved from shortstop to second base upon joining the Nationals, had even splits from both sides of the plate this year, with a .689 OPS against lefties and .696 OPS against righties.
Advantage: Giants
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Third Base
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2014 will be remembered as the year Anthony Rendon became one of baseball’s premier players—and nobody realized it. The 24-year-old finished the season fourth among position players with a 6.6 WAR, as he batted .287/.351/.473 with 111 runs, 21 home runs, 39 doubles, 83 RBI and 17 stolen bases in 153 games. Rendon also played elite defense at two different positions, as he moved from second to third base in the wake of Zimmerman’s injury.
Pablo Sandoval’s production this year was nearly identical to his 2013 campaign, as the switch-hitting third baseman batted .279/.324/.415 with 16 home runs, 26 doubles and 73 RBI while playing in 157 games. The two-time All-Star and 2012 World Series MVP batted .290 during the second half of the season, but he struggled to the tune of a .550 OPS in the final month of the season.
Advantage: Nationals
Shortstop
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Brandon Crawford batted only .246 on the year, but the left-handed hitting shortstop did set career highs in home runs (10), triples (10), RBI (69), on-base percentage (.324) and slugging percentage (.389). He also finished the regular season on an absolute tear, batting .365/.388/.541 with eight extra-base hits and 16 RBI in 23 September games. Crawford’s white-hot bat carried over into Wednesday’s NL Wild Card Game, as his grand slam off Edinson Volquez helped the Giants defeat the Pirates, 8-0, and move on to the division series.
However, few shortstops can compare to Washington’s Ian Desmond, who features a combination of power and speed that's rare for the premium position. By hitting 24 homers and 24 stolen bases this year, Desmond became only the fourth shortstop in baseball history to post three 20-20 seasons. On the season, the 29-year-old led all major league shortstops in home runs and RBIs (91) and ranked third in WAR (4.1).
Advantage: Nationals
Left Field
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Travis Ishikawa, who was actually the Opening Day first baseman for the Pirates, has started four of the last five games in left field for the Giants, but a healthy Mike Morse could force him to the bench for the NLDS, if not worse. Meanwhile, Morse obviously represents the better offensive option for manager Bruce Bochy, as he finished the regular season with 16 home runs and 32 doubles in 131 games.
Bryce Harper looked more like his usual self following the All-Star break, and he eventually settled in to hit .288/.359/.454 with 11 home runs, five doubles and 21 RBI in 258 plate appearances over 66 games during the second half. The Nats went 44-22 in those contests.
Harper struggled in the 2012 NLDS against the Cardinals, as the then-19-year-old outfielder batted just .130 with one home run in 23 plate appearances. However, the now-21-year-old seems poised for success in his second trip to the postseason.
Advantage: Nationals
Center Field
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Unfortunately, the Giants will be without Angel Pagan, their everyday center fielder and leadoff hitter during the regular season, for the rest of the postseason, as he was forced to undergo season-ending back surgery in late September. In Pagan’s place the Giants inserted Gregor Blanco, who ended up giving the club an unexpected boost during the second half by batting .296/.365/.449 and holding his own as the leadoff hitter.
Denard Span, on the other hand, was a fixture in center field and the leadoff spot for the Nationals, as he set a club record for hits (184) and career highs in doubles (39) and steals (31), all while playing his usual stellar defense. Span was especially productive during the second half of the season, pacing the Nationals in batting average (.346), on-base percentage (.403), hits (89), triples (three) and stolen bases (16).
Advantage: Nationals
Right Field
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A model of consistency during his tenure with the Nats, Jayson Werth turned in yet another strong performance this year in the middle of Washington's lineup, batting .292/.394/.455 with 16 home runs, 37 doubles and 82 RBI in 147 games. On top of that, both his on-base percentage and OPS (.849) were tops among Nats hitters.
Hunter Pence is to the Giants what Werth is to Washington, as he finished the season with a .277/.332/.445 batting line over a full 162 games. The 31-year-old led his team in hits (180) and runs scored (106) and ranked second in home runs (20), RBI (74) and stolen bases (13).
However, after Pence’s 4-for-54 finish to the regular season and Werth’s team-leading .922 OPS after the All-Star break, the advantage goes to the Nats’ right fielder.
Advantage: Nationals
Bench
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Projected NLDS Benches for Nationals, Giants
| Nationals | Giants |
| C Jose Lobaton | C Andrew Susac |
| IF Danny Espinosa | IF Joaquin Arias |
| IF/OF Kevin Frandsen | IF Matt Duffy |
| IF/OF Ryan Zimmerman | OF Juan Perez |
| OF Scott Hairston | OF Chris Dominguez |
| OF Nate Schierholtz | OF/1B Mike Morse |
Neither the Giants nor Nationals received significant contributions this season from their respective bench contingencies. Washington’s pinch-hitters ranked last in the NL in average (.143), slugging (.233) and OPS (.476), while the Giants’ hitters fared slightly better with a .221/.287/.317 batting line.
There’s a good chance Mike Morse will have recovered from his oblique injury—an injury that kept him sidelined in Wednesday’s Wild Card Game—in time for the NLDS, but if not he could serve as a late-inning weapon off the bench for the Giants given his enormous right-handed power.
The Nationals haven’t decided what they’ll do with Ryan Zimmerman in the upcoming series, but it’s a foregone conclusion he’ll at least hold down a bench spot. There’s also the possibility that Matt Williams starts him at either first base or in left field against left-handed pitchers, though that would in turn move Bryce Harper or Adam LaRoche.
Regardless, it appears as though the Nats will have at least one impact bat on the bench in the NLDS.
Advantage: Nationals
Starting Rotation
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By the Numbers: Comparing Nationals/Giants Starting Rotations
| Nationals | Stat Category | Giants |
| 3.04 | ERA | 3.74 |
| 3.24 | FIP | 3.65 |
| .651 | OPS | .709 |
| 7.71 | K/9 | 7.59 |
| 1.90 | BB/9 | 2.38 |
| 0.75 | HR/9 | 0.90 |
| 45.2% | GB% | 44.6% |
Projected Nationals Rotation vs. Giants (Career Statistics)
| 1. RHP Stephen Strasburg | 5 GS, 3-0, 29 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, .651 OPS |
| 2. RHP Jordan Zimmermann | 8 GS, 5-2, 51.2 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.123 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, .609 OPS |
| 3. RHP Doug Fister | 2 GS, 1-1, 13 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 4.2 K/9, .752 OPS |
| 4. LHP Gio Gonzalez | 7 GS, 2-2, 41.2 IP, 2.59 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, .695 OPS |
2014 was a banner season for Nats starters, as they led the major leagues in ERA (3.04), FIP (3.24) and paced the NL in opponents' OPS (.657) and home runs per nine innings (0.75).
However, Washington's starting pitching down the stretch?
The trio of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister combined to go 11-2 with a 1.44 ERA in their final five starts, and they also combined for 31 consecutive scoreless innings in the season's final series. And there's Zimmermann, who put an exclamation on his excellent campaign with a no-hitter in the final game of the regular season.
The No. 4 starter spot is a choice between the team's only left-hander in Gio Gonzalez (10-10, 3.57 ERA) and the very underrated Tanner Roark (15-10, 2.85 ERA), who finished the season 12th in the NL in ERA and tied for seventh in WHIP.
Projected Giants Rotation vs. Nationals (Career Statistics)
| 1. RHP Jake Peavy | 11 GS, 4-5, 74.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, .728 OPS |
| 2. RHP Tim Hudson | 31 GS, 18-5, 210.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, .617 OPS |
| 3. LHP Madison Bumgarner | 7 GS, 2-3, 45 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, .660 OPS |
| 4. RHP Ryan Vogelsong | 5 GS, 30.2 IP, 6.16 ERA, 1.630 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, .822 OPS |
Madison Bumgarner, a postseason veteran at only 25, once again proved he’s one of baseball's true aces by firing a four-hit shutout with 10 strikeouts against Pittsburgh in the NL Wild Card Game. However, the decision to use him in the win-or-go-home contest will set back the Giants’ rotation for the NLDS.
Jake Peavy, a member of Boston’s 2013 World Series squad, has been lights out since coming over at the trade deadline, going 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA in 12 starts.
After those two, however, the Giants’ rotation is full of uncertainty, as right-handers Ryan Vogelsong (3-6, 4.20 ERA) and Tim Hudson (2-7, 4.73 ERA) both scuffled during the second half of the season. However, it is worth noting that Hudson has been very successful in his career against the Nats, with an 18-5 record and 2.35 ERA in 31 starts.
If the Giants ultimately need a fourth starter in the series, they could also explore using either Yusmeiro Petit or Tim Lincecum.
Advantage: Nationals
Bullpen
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By the Numbers: Comparing Nationals/Giants Bullpens
| Nationals | Stat Category | Giants |
| 3.00 | ERA | 3.01 |
| 3.05 | FIP | 3.29 |
| 8.24 | K/9 | 8.65 |
| 2.69 | BB/9 | 3.30 |
| 0.50 | HR/9 | 0.62 |
| 74.1% | LOB% | 73.7% |
Projected Nationals NLDS Bullpen
RHP Tanner Roark
RHP Rafael Soriano
LHP Ross Detwiler
RHP Aaron Barrett
LHP Matt Thornton
RHP Tyler Clippard
RHP Drew Storen
Even though closer Rafael Soriano (32 saves, 3.19 ERA) blew up down down the stretch, the Nationals' bullpen is still in excellent shape heading into the postseason. Former closer Drew Storen (11 saves, 1.12 ERA) replaced him in the ninth and has thrived in the role. All-Star setup man Tyler Clippard (75 games, 2.18 ERA) has also been great, and waiver acquisition Matt Thornton (18 games, 0.00 ERA) has yet to allow an earned run with the Nationals in 11.1 innings of work.
Projected Giants NLDS Bullpen
RHP Tim Lincecum
RHP Yusmeiro Petit
LHP Javier Lopez
RHP Jean Machi
RHP Sergio Romo
LHP Jeremy Affeldt
RHP Santiago Casilla
As was the case with the Nationals' bullpen, the Giants’ was one of the best in the NL this season, ranking first in opponents’ batting average (.217), WHIP (1.07) and walks allowed (131) and third in ERA (3.01).
Right-hander Sergio Romo (3.72 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 64 games) and Santiago Casilla (1.70 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 54 games) split closing duties this season, with Romo saving 23 of 28 games and Casilla notching 19 saves in 23 chances.
The team also received strong performances from left-handers Javier Lopez (3.11 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 65 games) and Jeremy Affeldt (2.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 62 games), while right-hander Jean Machi registered a 2.58 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 66.1 innings over a team-leading 71 appearances.
Advantage: Nationals
Final Prediction
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The Nationals have all the components of a World Series-caliber team, with a dangerous offense, decent speed, strong defense and, most importantly, the best pitching staff in major league baseball.
With home-field advantage in the NLDS and Madison Bumgarner unlikely to start until Game 3, the Nats could potentially make quick work of the Giants.
Going up against a red-hot Nats starting rotation is an unenviable situation for any offense, though I wouldn’t put it past the Giants to squeak out a victory in the best-of-five series.
Final Prediction: Nationals 3, Giants 1
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