Scott Miller's Starting 9 (+7): October Brings Questions, and We've Got Answers
1. Where can I locate the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox this month?
You can't even find them with a satellite dish and a GPS. This is the first time both clubs are sitting at home in the same October since 1993 (not counting the '94 players' strike season). Last time the Yankees were bystanders in two consecutive Octobers? In '92 and '93.
2. Isn't there something fishy about an October without Derek Jeter and David Ortiz?
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Absolutely, and how fitting that the Los Angeles Angels' Mike Trout, whom just about everyone agrees will take the baton from Jeter as the new face of baseball, is charging full-speed into his first postseason while custodians are still sweeping up all of those Kleenex left on the floor from Jeter's farewell.
Half the fun of October is meeting new heroes, and we'll need a long receiving line for all of the possibilities this month:
Here comes Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg steamrolling into his first postseason after having his uniform taken away in 2012. Remember that? Washington general manager Mike Rizzo controversially shut him down then after 159.1 innings, and the St. Louis Cardinals coolly shut down the Nationals in a nail-biting Game 5 of the Division Series.
Just like that, the Nats' best-record-in-the-majors was burnt to a crisp. Which, truthfully, came close to describing Strasburg, then 24, as he limped through his final few starts.
Here comes the Nationals' Bryce Harper who, at 21, is a couple years older and wiser than the raw kid who hit .130/.130/.391 with eight strikeouts in 23 at-bats in that forgettable '12 NLDS against the Cardinals. One inning at a time, we must remember, but how many folks out there would love to see Harper facing Trout in a Nationals-Angels World Series?
Just one of many delicious possibilities for when the pumpkin pies are in the oven near the end of the month.
Here comes Adam Jones, the heart and soul of a Baltimore Orioles team that just won its first AL East title since '97. Fair or not, Jones is being asked to do some serious heavy lifting with star third baseman Manny Machado (knee) and catcher Matt Wieters (elbow) out for the season, and with slugging first baseman Chris Davis suspended for testing positive for amphetamines for the first eight games of the playoffs.
Jones is a breakout star who had a rough playoff debut: In six games with the O's in '12 in the AL Wild Card Game against Texas and Division Series against the Yankees, Jones batted .077/.074/.077 with one RBI in 26 at-bats.
Here comes Andrew McCutchen, the reigning NL MVP, whose Pittsburgh Pirates take a second consecutive crack at the postseason, hosting Wednesday's NL Wild Card Game against the San Francisco Giants, after a two-decade October absence. McCutchen is one of the brightest stars in the game, and don't forget about third baseman Josh Harrison, either: He finished second in the NL batting race at .315.
Here come a bat-rack full of first-time Kansas City Royals, joyfully leaping into the postseason like a bunch of elementary school kids into a pile of raked leaves. Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, closer Greg Holland…the list goes on. They will host Oakland in the AL Wild Card Game Tuesday.
3. What is the best story this autumn?
With apologies to the nine other clubs, the hands-down best story comes packaged in a cheery Hallmark card greeting with barbecue sauce dripping deliciously from the lineup card.
The Kansas City Royals will make their first playoff appearance since 1985 when they host Oakland on Tuesday, and it's about time Kauffman Stadium—one of the game's most underrated venues—says hello again to the national television cameras. We're coming to you live from Kansas City, home to the corporate headquarters of Hallmark and the delicious Arthur Bryant's. Order the burnt ends!...
From a core group of young players who came up together through the minors and won at every stop—guys like Butler, Gordon, Moustakas, Hosmer—to a manager, Ned Yost, who was heartlessly fired in Milwaukee with just 12 games left on the schedule in '08 when the Brewers went to the playoffs, these guys are easy to root for.
Then there's general manager Dayton Moore, on the job since '06, who was vilified by far too many people two winters ago when he traded highly touted outfield prospect Wil Myers to the Tampa Bay Rays for starting pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis.
Yes, Myers looked like a sure-fire star. But what not nearly enough people understood was that the Royals had plenty of young position players and not nearly enough pitching. And their window to win was now, not in five years. Shields has been their ace, and Davis has become perhaps the top setup man in baseball.
"If these guys only knew what it means to the city," Royals Hall of Famer George Brett told Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star last week on the day they clinched a playoff spot. "Jeez, it means the world to me. I've lived here 40 years. I've been sticking up for them for all these years."
4. Which is the biggest Mickey Mouse series?
M-I-C…see you in Los Angeles on Friday...K-E-Y...why? Because that's where the Cardinals will be for Game 1 against the Dodgers...M-O-U-S-E!
How much fun will this rematch of last season's NLCS be?
Last autumn, as the Cards were delivering a six-game KO of the Dodgers, things got very chippy while devolving into a New School vs. Old School debate. It was after Game 3 that Cards ace Adam Wainwright accused Dodgers slugger Adrian Gonzalez of Mickey Mouse antics for a jubilant outward showing of emotion at second base following a double, then added he didn't appreciate Gonzalez chirping at him from third base, either.
So Gonzalez homered in Game 5 and, on his way back to the Dodgers dugout, put both hands above his head and formed Mickey Mouse ears. Oh Lord, from there, the Cardinals turned even grumpier regarding the Dodgers' childish ways, while the Dodgers professed to be perplexed at why the Cards were so offended by emotional displays.
For that, and for old-fashioned reasons of sheer talent—they're two of the game's best—you bet Wainwright vs. Dodgers' ace Clayton Kershaw is the most anticipated Game 1 pitching duel of any series.
Oh, and don't forget this: Cardinals manager Mike Matheny, as you might recall, picked Wainwright over Kershaw as the NL All-Star Game starter two months ago. Yeah, this is going to be good.
5. Clayton Kershaw: More Sandy Koufax or Charlie Brown?
Before sticking me in the doghouse for daring to ask that question, Snoopy, chill for just a sec and let me explain:
Great as Kershaw is, he hasn't always gotten along with October. In six lifetime NLCS games—three starts—his ERA is 7.23. In two NLCS starts against the Cardinals last autumn, it was a still-smoking 6.30. Mostly, because following a six-inning, no-earned runs allowed outing in Game 2, he was pummeled for seven earned runs in four innings in a 9-0 Game 6 beating.
Figure Kershaw, who should win both the NL Cy Young and MVP awards this season, remembers that more vividly than anyone. And here is where him missing a month early this season with the pulled muscle in his back might come in awfully handy: This should be the freshest that Kershaw, 26, has ever been for the postseason.
Meantime, one more thing for Dodgers fans to worry about: Fabulous as Zack Greinke is, he has a 4.30 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in six career postseason starts.
6. Are these the Horace Greeley Memorial Playoffs?
Ah, yes, the former New York Tribune editor credited with popularizing the phrase "Go West, young man, go West."
The MLB power structure definitely is shifting, with the Yankees and Red Sox at home and, for the first time ever, four of the five California clubs—the Dodgers, Angels, Giants and Oakland Athletics—splashing into the postseason.
7. Who has the most momentum going into the postseason?
It's hard to look past the Nationals, who finished with the NL's best record and, thus, will retain home-field advantage through the NLCS.
Jordan Zimmermann prepared for the playoffs by firing a no-hitter Sunday that concluded with rookie outfielder Steven Souza Jr. making an astounding diving catch.
Strasburg prepared for the playoffs by stringing together 20 consecutive scoreless innings to conclude the season.
Doug Fister got ready with a three-hit shutout on Friday, and center fielder Denard Span set a Nationals single-season hit record with 184.
The Nationals are so strong that manager Matt Williams reasonably could start Strasburg, Zimmermann or Fister in Game 1.
Indications are he is leaning toward Strasburg, who went 4-1 with a 1.13 ERA over his last six starts, held opposing hitters to a .197 batting average, fanned 40 and walked only three. Another angle: Games 1 and 2 are at home, and it makes sense to have Strasburg work at home as often as possible, where his ERA was more than a run lower than his road ERA in '14.
In Nationals Park, Strasburg went 9-3 with a 2.56 ERA in 18 starts this season.
Away from Nationals Park, Strasburg went 5-8 with a 3.82 ERA in 16 starts.
8. Who else enjoys home cooking?
Must be ma's meatloaf....
The Nationals, Pirates and Cardinals tied for the best home record in the NL. They each went 51-30.
In the AL, the Angels' 52-29 home record was the best, followed by the Orioles' 50-31 mark.
9. What is not heavenly about the Halos?
They finished with the best record in the majors and answered every challenge. Trout likely will win his first AL MVP award, Albert Pujols had his best season as an Angel, Howie Kendrick is on a roll and Jered Weaver plugs away atop the rotation with the endurance of a Volvo still running smooth at 150,000 miles.
But despite all the good things, the rotation is a mess.
Not only did they lose their best pitcher for the season when Garrett Richards went down with that gruesome knee injury, don't forget they also lost Tyler Skaggs for the season to Tommy John surgery. Then, the man who stepped up heroically for Richards, Matt Shoemaker, suffered an oblique injury a couple of weeks ago.
Right now, the Angels have no sure thing after Weaver and C.J. Wilson (and Wilson isn't exactly Captain Clutch in October). Shoemaker, who last started Sept. 15, threw a solid bullpen session Sunday in Seattle and is confident he can start in the Division Series against either Kansas City or Oakland.
Also, outfielder Josh Hamilton's availability for the Division Series is seriously up in the air with right rib-cage and chest injuries.
10. The Orioles' pitching isn't good, right?
Whoa, hold on just one Baltimore Chop of a second, all right? Just because Ubaldo Jimenez never became what the Orioles hoped and manager Buck Showalter has had to creatively patch things together, there's been this myth all summer long that Baltimore doesn't have enough pitching to win.
Well, chew on this: The Orioles have a deep bullpen that ranks third in the AL with a 3.10 ERA while throwing more innings (507.2) than any other AL playoff bullpen except the Angels (540). Their rotation finished fifth in the AL with a 3.61 ERA. And the Orioles had three 13-game winners (Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris and Chris Tillman) for the first time since '97, when Scott Erickson, Jimmy Key and Mike Mussina helped pitch the O's to their last division title.
Meantime, the O's have a killer lineup that led the majors with 211 homers, far outdistancing the Rockies, who had 186.
11. Quick, anybody have some Tums for Brad Ausmus and Don Mattingly?
When the wheels start spinning in the late innings, things can get awfully uncomfortable in Detroit and Los Angeles.
Tigers manager Brad Ausmus has little choice but to ride a bullpen whose 4.29 ERA is the worst of any AL playoff team. We all remember good-guy closer Joe Nathan reaching rock bottom and flipping off vociferous Detroit fans (he quickly apologized). Yankees fans well remember Joba Chamberlain's foibles. And Joakim Soria has hardly helped.
Ausmus' Tigers could get a big help from Anibal Sanchez, who missed significant time with a strained left pectoral muscle and will be used out of the bullpen.
Dodgers manager Don Mattingly, meanwhile, has a dependable closer in Kenley Jansen, but has one heck of a time on the bridge that runs from whoever started to Jansen. Brian Wilson and Chris Perez have been dreadful. Brandon League has been untrustworthy. The Dodgers are considering three kids for their playoff roster: Pedro Baez, Paco Rodriguez and Carlos Frias.
12. Should we get these guys name tags, trophies or juice boxes?
Longest active playoff droughts? Here is a current list of most regular-season games played without ever having sniffed the playoffs, courtesy of the fabulous Baseball-Reference.com. Make sure to give the guys in bold an extra loud cheer when you see them in the playoffs:
Adam Dunn, Athletics, 2,001 games
Alex Rios, Texas Rangers, 1,586
Brian Roberts, released by Yankees this year, 1,418
Nick Markakis, Orioles 1,365
Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays, 1,250
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays, 1,207
Billy Butler, Royals, 1,167
Josh Willingham, Royals, 1,148
Alex Gordon, Royals, 1,032
Most games pitched without playoff appearance:
Jason Frasor, Royals, 647
Scott Downs, Royals, 619
Heath Bell, free agent, 590
Shawn Camp, Philadelphia Phillies, 541
Brandon League, Dodgers, 498
Matt Lindstrom, Chicago White Sox, 469
Todd Coffey, free agent, 461
Luke Gregerson, Athletics, 435
Mike MacDougal, free agent, 407
Bruce Chen, released by Royals this year, 398
Chris Perez, Dodgers, 393
Frank Francisco, free agent, 391
Casey Janssen, Blue Jays, 389
Joakim Soria, Tigers, 372
13. Are the Giants still hung up on even-numbered years?
The next few weeks will be telling. You remember, Bruce Bochy's clubs won the World Series in '10 and '12, which caused the numerologists and astrologists out there to move into a tizzy this spring predicting great things for Kung Fu Panda and Co.
Well, Pablo Sandoval finally started to hit, rookie Joe Panik stared down any panic at second base and was terrific, and the midseason acquisition of Jake Peavy was nails.
But now, all eyes are on that old familiar battery of Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey as San Francisco travels to PNC Park for Wednesday's NL Wild Card Game. Bumgarner has some amends to make. In one start against the Pirates this summer, he was 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA, getting torched for five earned runs and six hits in four innings on July 28 in San Francisco in a 5-0 loss to the Bucs.
14. Hey, whatever happened to Jon Lester vs. the Tigers?
Um, it still could happen. But for now, Jon Lester will face the Royals in Kansas City in the AL Wild Card Game Tuesday as the Athletics continue to try to salvage a season in which they were the best team in the majors for the first three months before nearly blowing it all.
Here's the key: Short October series are all about pitching, and with Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, Jason Hammel and closer Sean Doolittle back from an oblique injury…who knows? Yes, the A's desperately missed Yoenis Cespedes. Hard to say what would have happened had he stayed, but one thing we know for sure: Without Lester, who went 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts, the A's wouldn't be here.
Maybe they can ride that pitching, and that Lester-David Price, A's-Tigers ALCS matchup will still happen.
15. Is this a World Series or Family Feud?
Yes, all of these Fall Classic matchups are possible:
Beltway World Series: Orioles vs. Nationals.
Freeway World Series: Dodgers vs. Angels.
Bay Bridge World Series: Giants vs. Athletics.
I-70 World Series: Cardinals vs. Royals.
16. So, whom do you like?
The beautiful thing about this October is you can make a case for just about everybody to win the World Series.
But as I noted above, it's difficult not to be impressed by the Nationals, who are very well balanced, pitch beautifully and are riding momentum. For that reason, I'm going with Washington to win it all, beating the…drum roll…Orioles in the World Series.
Then, it will be time to bone up on some history. Last time the World Series was played in Washington, D.C.? Try 1933. And the last time a D.C. club won? In 1924, when Bucky Harris' Washington Senators beat the New York Giants behind the big arm of Walter Johnson and the big bat of Goose Goslin.
That Senators roster contained some pretty cool names, too: Firpo Marberry, Showboat Fisher, Mule Shirley, Pinky Hargrave and Slim McGrew.
Quick, somebody come up with something for Bryce Harper, will you?
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has over two decades of experience covering MLB, including 14 years as a national baseball columnist at CBSSports.com.
Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball @ScottMillerBbl.
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