Atlanta Falcons vs. NY Giants: Breaking Down New York's Game Plan

The New York Giants (2-2) play host to the Atlanta Falcons (2-2), a team that has yet to win on the road this season and has been outscored 65-38 in its two road losses.

In addition to their road-game struggles, the Falcons are a banged-up team on both sides of the ball (more on that later).

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A theme that head coach Tom Coughlin has emphasized this week to his players is to concentrate on doing their assignments in order to extend their two-game winning streak to three games ahead of next weekend’s critical NFC East showdown at Philadelphia. 

“I think we’ve got to get back into it,” quarterback Eli Manning told reporters. “We had a little practice Monday. It probably wasn’t as sharp as we wanted it to be, which can be normal after a long weekend. I thought (Wednesday) was a lot better.

“I thought we had good energy, enthusiasm and good pace (Wednesday) and that’s what you like to see from practice. Guys were out there moving fast, hitting and doing well.”

They are also not falling into the classic trap of thinking they will see a weakened Falcons team, whose offensive line in particular lost two starters for the season this week.

“We understand very recently how hard wins are to come by, so we don’t take anybody lightly,” defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka told me.

“Everybody that we are playing against, they are all professionals, and we understand that. Yeah, there might be some matchup things we want to take advantage of, but we will never take anyone lightly.”

As good as the Giants have been during their winning streak, Manning insists that there is room for improvement.

“I think we have improved every week and that’s good, but we’ve got to keep improving,” he said. “Last week was great and fun, and the defense is getting interceptions, turnovers and we’re moving the ball and scoring. Not every game is going to be like that, but it can still be effective.

“We’ve got to find ways just to play smart, protect the football and score touchdowns when we get opportunities.”

Let’s see what the Giants are up against this week.

The Series

New York and Atlanta will meet for the 22nd time in the regular season, with the Giants looking to even the series at 11-11 with a win on Sunday.

The two teams have met six times in the regular season during head coach Tom Coughlin’s tenure (2004-present), with the Giants having won four of those contests. New York has also bested the Falcons in the postseason, leading that series 1-0.

Since the series began, the Giants are 2-6 at home against the Falcons in the regular season, 3-6 if you count the 2011 Giants' 24-2 playoff win.

Unit	Falcons	Giants
Quarterback	X
Running Backs		X
Receivers	X
Tight Ends		X
Offensive Line		X
Defensive Line		X
Linebackers		X
Defensive Secondary		X
Special Teams	X

Unit Snapshots

Quarterbacks

As good as Eli Manning has been these last three weeks—and he’s been effective—Matt Ryan has been just a little bit better.

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Ryan is currently second in the NFL in passing yards with 1,263 and leads the No. 2 offense in points scored per game at 32.8.

Ryan’s average of 322.3 passing yards per game also bests Manning’s 231.3, the latter of which is ranked 16th in the NFL.

So why is the position even? Because per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Manning’s receivers have dropped 11 passes, tied for second-most in the NFL with Andrew Luck of the Colts.

Running Backs

Per PFF, 67.1 percent of Steven Jackson’s 201 rushing yards have come after contact.

However, he has only produced one rushing touchdown in four games and has not really been much of a factor coming out of the backfield, catching four passes for 20 yards. 

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His running mate, Antone Smith, has carried the ball just 10 times for 119 yards, but 48 of those yards came on one play, a 48-yard touchdown run. Smith has two rushing touchdowns, his other being 38 yards, and one receiving touchdown (54 yards) this season. He is averaging 45.6 yards per scoring play.

Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams have been solid, averaging 4.2 and 3.1 yards per carry.

While Williams is still a work in progress as a receiver, Jennings is quickly living up to his promise as a complete back thanks to his nine catches for 92 yards to go along with his 341 rushing yards.

Receivers

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The Falcons’ receiver trio (Julio Jones, Roddy White and Harry Douglas) have been more productive than the Giants’ Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and Preston Parker.

New York’s top three receivers on the depth chart have combined for 546 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Atlanta’s top three receivers have 755 receiving yards combined (447 by Jones) and five touchdowns.

Tight Ends

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Levine Toilolo has caught eight passes for 69 yards and a touchdown, while old friend Bear Pascoe has yet to record a reception this season.

Larry Donnell and Daniel Fells have been key contributors in the Giants passing game, combining for seven of Eli Manning’s touchdown passes. Fells is a slightly better blocker that Donnell at this point, but the NFL’s latest breakout star and the Giants' leading receiver (25 catches for 236 yards) has made progress in that area.

Offensive Line

The Falcons’ offensive line has been turned upside down thanks to the season-ending injuries suffered by starting center Joe Hawley and right tackle Lamar Holmes.

Left guard Justin Blalock, who was forced out of last week’s game with a back injury, should be back on the field this week, though it remains to be seen how effective he might be if he even plays.

Vaughn McClue of ESPN tweeted one likely scenario for the Falcons’ reshuffled line:

Left tackle Jake Matthews missed Week 2 with an ankle injury but has looked no worse for the wear since returning.

Right guard Jon Asamoah, who signed as a free agent in the offseason, has been inconsistent against both the run and the pass. 

Defensive Line

The Giants defensive line is just now starting to hit its stride over the last three games.

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During that period, the line has produced 4.5 sacks, 14 quarterback hits and eight passes defensed. 

Atlanta’s projected starting defensive front includes Kroy Biermann and Jonathan Babineaux at the ends, and Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai in the interior. Old friend Osi Umenyiora is the team’s pass-rushing specialist. 

Of those Falcons defensive linemen mentioned, not one has recorded any of the team’s three quarterback sacks.   

Linebackers

The Giants should be getting a much-needed boost at this position if both Jon Beason and Devon Kennard return from their respective injuries.

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Kennard’s presence alone affords defensive coordinator Perry Fewell more options regarding  personnel substitutions, given his sideline-to-sideline speed.

The Falcons' linebackers, meanwhile, have been part of a problematic run defense that last week allowed the Vikings to rush for 241 yards and have allowed 641 net rushing yards for the year.

None of the Falcons’ linebackers—Paul Worrilow, Joplo Bartu, Nate Stupar or Prince Shembo—has recorded a sack or an interception his season.

Defensive Secondary

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The Giants defensive backfield has been solid, especially at the corners, where Prince Amukamara and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie have allowed 21 of 44 pass targets to be completed (47.7 percent) for 319 yards and one touchdown.

Atlanta lost safety William Moore this week to a shoulder injury, and safety Kemal Ishmael is on the injury report with a sprained ankle.

Cornerback Robert Alford and Ishmael are supposedly Atlanta’s two best defensive backs, per data pulled from PFF, but together they have allowed 10 of 18 pass targets to be completed (55.5 percent) for 185 yards and three touchdowns.

Special Teams

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There is Devin Hester, and then there’s everyone else. Put the ball in his hands, and you are asking for trouble.

Thanks to Hester, the Falcons have the 11th-best kickoff return unit in the league (averaging 25.6 yards per return) and the fourth-best punt return unit with a 15.3 average.

Hester against the Giants’ maligned punt coverage team is not a good matchup for New York, whose 36.2 net average ties them for 27th in the league (with Chicago).

Injury Report

Falcons	Giants
G Justin Blalock (Back) - Did Not Participate	LB Devon Kennard (Hamstring) - Limited
WR Harry Douglas (Foot) - Did Not Participate	LB Jon Beason (Foot/Toe) - Limited
WR Devin Hester (Ankle) - Limited	WR Odell Beckham (Hamstring) - Limited
S Kemal Ishmael (Ankle)- Limited	P Steve Weatherford (ankle) - Limited
WR Julio Jones (Ankle)- Limited
LB Prince Shembo (Knee)- Limited

Giants' Key Injury 

For the first time this season—really in a while, actually—the Giants do not have any pressing injury concerns to warrant designation as their “key injury.”

So this week, we’ll look at the four guys who were limited in Wednesday’s practice and try to ascertain what kind of playing time they might see and at whose expense. 

Punter Steve Weatherford

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Steve Weatherford has been an absolute warrior in the way he has gutted out games despite having a severely sprained ankle.

With no other punter on the roster, there is no reason to think he will not play on Sunday, just as he has been doing since being injured in Week 1.

Receiver Odell Beckham Jr.

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Odell Beckham Jr., the rookie receiver whom we thought for the first time actually looked close to full speed when running and cutting during individual drills, will probably see time as the fourth receiver. He could also replace Preston Parker as the punt returner, though Beckham’s first responsibility as a punt returner (if he gets that job) will be to secure the ball.

If Beckham is active, look for him to get no more than a dozen snaps on offense, and look for receiver Julian Talley to be inactive.

Linebacker Jon Beason

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A return by defensive co-captain Jon Beason means he goes back to his middle linebacker spot, while rookie Dan Fox likely is inactive.

How much Beason actually plays would depend on other factors. For instance, do the coaches want to leave him on the field in passing downs, thereby asking him to do a lot of running on that still-healing foot?

Remember, the Giants have a big NFC East matchup the following week at Philadelphia, a team that has far better weapons than the Falcons. Thus, it would not be shocking if Beason gets a partial workload if he is indeed active.

Linebacker Devon Kennard

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If Devon Kennard is able to go—he told me on Wednesday that he was able to run, change direction and cut with no immediate problems—he will likely be a part of several sub-packages, most likely on the outside, where he told reporters he has taken most of his practice snaps so far this week.  

As for Kennard’s impact on the roster, his presence will likely mean that Mark Herzlich, who had his worst game of the young season last week, particularly in coverage, where he earned a minus-2.8 grade from Pro Football Focus (subscription required), will be inactive. 

Keys to the Game

Giants on Offense

One possible Falcons defender who could be in the Giants’ crosshairs this week is defensive end Kroy Biermann.

Biermann has struggled both against the run and the pass, earning a minus-8.4 grade from PFF.

According to Scott Carasik, B/R’s Featured Columnist covering the Falcons, the decline of Biermann, who missed last season due to an Achilles injury, has been a swift and rather painful (to watch) decline:

"

He's tentative to push off his repaired ankle, and he doesn't have the same explosion that he had before the injury to drop deep and play the deep third like he used to. He doesn't have the same pass-rush prowess that he had. He tends to get washed-out pretty easily in the running game, and the lack of effort once he's engaged is pretty alarming.  

"

via NFL Game Rewind

To illustrate Carasik's point, note how Vikings tackle Matt Kalil folds up Biermann like an accordion in this example.

Per PFF’s signature stats, the Falcons have mainly had Biermann rush from the left side (52-to-28 snaps), where he has only managed to produce three pressures in four games. If Biermann is on the field, it just might be a safe bet to assume the Giants are going to attack him.

Giants on Defense

As previously noted, the Giants linebacker unit has gone from a strength to a liability yet again due to the injuries suffered by Beason and rookie Devon Kennard.

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Those injuries have forced the coaches to move Jameel McClain to the middle, where he has played fairly well, and insert Mark Herzlich, who is more of a strong-side linebacker than Spencer Paysinger, in McClain’s old spot.

The problem, as we saw during the Washington game, is that Herzlich continues to struggle in coverage, where his lack of foot speed is a big issue.

Consider the 36-yard gain by Washington running back Roy Helu early in the third quarter. Not only was Herzlich seen running way from the play (presumably to double-cover a tight end, a gaffe that allowed Helu to leak out into a passing route), but watching Herzlich trying to gallop across the field to stop Helu was just painful.

via NFL Game Rewind

To be fair, Herzlich hasn’t been the only problem in the unit when it comes to coverage. His bookend, Jacquian Williams, currently has a minus-1.6 grade in pass coverage from PFF.

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Williams has the physical goods to get the job done. However, he appears to have issues regarding what he is seeing in front of him. That is likely the reason why he is reacting a split-second too late. 

That slight hesitation is largely why he’s allowed 68.8 percent of the passes thrown his way to be completed for 143 yards (13.0 avg.).

It would not be surprising if the Falcons' passing game goes after the underneath zones that the linebackers are supposed to be patrolling.

If we were the Giants, we would consider playing the nickel package more than the base defense. Given how well the Giants' run defense, ranked 10th in the NFL, has handled the opponent’s rushing attack through four games.

Giants on Special Teams

Objective Nos. 1,2,3,4 and 5 for this unit are to keep the ball away from the still-dangerous Devin Hester, who has already recorded one punt return for a touchdown this season.

Let’s look at how dangerous Hester can be, even if a punter manages to punt the ball outside of the numbers, as Tampa’s Michael Koenen did on Hester’s 62-yard touchdown return in Week 3.

The first thing the Falcons punt return team did was get into a position where they could push the Bucs' coverage guys toward the sideline, which you can mostly see to the left of the yellow line. This helped open a big lane for Hester to exploit.

via NFL Game Rewind

By the time Hester hit his second gear, note how the majority of the coverage team (with the exception of Koenen) was behind the wall that the Falcons blockers created.

via NFL Game Rewind

With just the punter to beat in his race toward the end zone, Hester, who is still fast, has no trouble getting in for the score.

So what should the Giants do to make sure they don’t let this happen to them?

First, if possible, kick the ball out of bounds. Why tempt fate by giving Hester a chance to make a play? If Hester does get his hands on the ball, the Giants can’t allow themselves to be pushed behind a human wall of blockers.

Considering that Weatherford is still playing on a bad ankle, if Hester breaks free, he is as good as gone.

Prediction

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The Falcons' injuries along the offensive line are a big concern in the all-important battle of the pit, especially against a red-hot Giants defensive pass rush coming into this week’s game.

All the Giants defense has done over the last three games is accumulate 8.0 sacks, 19 quarterback hits and 24 passes defended.

Against the run, New York is ranked 10th in the league, allowing 101.2 yards per game. Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul and linebackers Jameel McClain and Jacquian Williams have been right up there in the team’s top five in tackles (cornerback Prince Amukamara leads the Giants in total tackles).

When three out of your defense’s top four tacklers are defensive linemen and/or linebackers, that’s usually a sign that not much is getting too far into the second level.

If the Giants can replicate the success they had against Washington’s receivers in the passing game, their 10th-ranked run defense should be able to handle the aging Steven Jackson, thus minimizing the Falcons’ offensive threat. 

Final: Giants 30, Falcons 17; 2014 prediction record: 2-2

Advanced statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required), unless otherwise noted.

All quotes and information obtained firsthand unless otherwise sourced. Follow me on Twitter, @Patricia_Traina.