Ranking the 10 Non-Favored Teams Most Likely to Crash the 2015 Final Four

With a little over a month left until the college basketball season, Odds Shark has listed Kentucky (4-1), Arizona (9-1), Wisconsin (10-1) and Duke (10-1) as the favorites to win the national championship. However, there may be a few teams around—like a Florida or a Kansas—who may upset the odds and find themselves at the 2015 Final Four in Indianapolis.

The list is ranked based on the teams’ current rosters, how they fared last season and how well they can build upon their previous success.

Honorable Mentions

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Connecticut

The Huskies put up seemingly improbable runs in 2011 and 2014, so it’d be unwise for anyone to count out the defending champions come tournament time. Ryan Boatright and his tenacious defense will still be around this year, and UConn will also get to see Rodney Purvis, who sat out last year after transferring from N.C. State.

Virginia

Virginia will feature plenty of returning starters from the No. 1-seed team of last year. As long as the Cavaliers can continue to play under the defensive schemes of Tony Bennett, there is always a chance for them to pull out a win come crunch time.

Michigan

John Beilein has a knack for developing his guards and getting the most out of them, and it looks like Caris LeVert (12.9 PPG) will be the next Wolverine to undergo that process. With sophomore Zak Irvin poised for a breakout year as well, Michigan’s chances at making it to Indy are not that far-fetched.

10. San Diego State

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If there is anything that can be learned from UConn’s championship run last year, it’s that defense can indeed win championships. San Diego State gave up only 57 points per game last season, the second-fewest among all teams in the country. If that type of effort can return this year, then San Diego State may have a chance of going to Indy as well. 

Junior Skylar Spencer led the defense last year with 2.3 blocks per game while three other players (excluding the departed Xavier Thames) averaged at least a steal per game. 

The Aztecs will struggle offensively without Thames and his team-best 17.6 PPG, but expect junior Winston Shepard to step up as a leader this season and improve upon his 11.6 PPG average.

Senior Dwayne Polee II and freshman Malik Pope can be vital contributors on offense as well. Polee averaged 8.5 PPG in 17.9 minutes per game and shot 39.1 percent from three-point range, while Pope has the potential to develop into a explosive wing player.

Chances are the games won’t look pretty, but Steve Fisher wouldn’t care as long as they hang up a W at the end of it, and Fisher has put up a lot of W's over the years.

9. Iowa State

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Sophomore Monte Morris is poised for a breakout season, and if he has one, he should be able to lead the Cyclones to a deeper NCAA tournament run in 2015.

Morris was inserted into the starting lineup midway through the season last year by Fred Hoiberg and he has made his presence known since. Morris’ assist-to-turnover ratio of 4.79 was an NCAA record for a freshman and a big reason why the team led the country in assists with 18.5 per game.

The Cyclones did lose two key players from last year in Melvin Ejim and DeAndre Kane, but they also feature important returning players in Georges Niang (16.5 PPG), Naz Long (7.1 PPG) and Dustin Hogue (11.6 PPG and 8.4 RPG).

The only concern for Iowa State would be its defense that gave up an average of 74.4 PPG last year. The team got away with it in 2013-14 because of its high-octane offense, but it might become a big problem this season if it’s not addressed.

8. Wichita State

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Being a Missouri Valley Conference team, Wichita State will always get its fair share of doubts. The program fell short of expectations of a No. 1 seed last season, but behind a pair of improved juniors in Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, the Shockers can very well make the Final Four for the second time in three years.

What Wichita State excelled at last season was its defense, its 59.5 PPG allowed ranking No. 9 in the country. That kind of performance can be expected again this season.

The only big departure for the Shockers was Cleanthony Early, but the only defensive numbers they lose are his 0.8 steals and blocks per game. Baker, VanFleet and senior Tekele Cotton should be able to bring back their combined average of 4.7 steals per game this season.

Offensively, the Shockers’ three-point shooting will continue to be a big part of their offense. Baker (38 percent), VanVleet (41.8 percent) and Cotton (37.1 percent) all have the ability to stretch the floor and hit the big shots when needed.

The main concern for Wichita State this year will be its lack of size. Among all returning players, senior Darius Carter is the tallest player on the team at 6’7”, and he averaged just 18.2 minutes per game last year. 

This disadvantage may cost the Shockers when they match up against the more physical teams of the power conferences, but this team can still make a pretty deep run in March until that happens.

7. Gonzaga

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If the third time is the charm, what about the fifth time? That’s the question Gonzaga is asking after four consecutive losses in the third round of the NCAA tournament. 

The Bulldogs are looking for their first trip back to the Sweet Sixteen since 2009. Perhaps this is the year they get there, and further.

Gary Bell Jr. and Kevin Pangos, two four-year starters for Mark Few, combined to average 25.4 PPG last season and will continue to control the backcourt for Gonzaga. Przemek Karnowski, the 7’1” junior center, is also coming off an impressive season in which he averaged 10.4 PPG and 7.1 RPG. 

Throw in some of the newcomers, especially Domantas Sabonis, whom Few called “a skilled basketball player who should have an immediate impact on our program,” and the Bulldogs seem like they have all the right pieces to get where they want to go.

6. Texas

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The addition of top recruit Myles Turner should boost the Longhorns’ offense immediately and drastically, but it also presents a problem for Rick Barnes.

Standing at 6’11”, Turner is slated to move Cameron Ridley (6’9”) and Jonathan Holmes (6’8”)—two of Texas' best players last year—to the 4 and 3, respectively. How they will adapt to those positions will remain to be seen, but Barnes would love to see all three of them on the floor at the same time.

One thing that is almost a certainty, though, is that Texas will be one of the best rebounding and blocking teams in the country. The Longhorns averaged 41.8 RPG (No. 4 in the nation) and 6.0 BPG (No. 12 in the nation) last year as a team. Turner can only help that cause.

Apart from those, sophomore guard Isaiah Taylor will be one of the biggest reasons if Texas succeeds.

Taylor is coming off a stellar freshman campaign in which he averaged 12.7 PPG despite shooting just 39.1 percent from the field and 26.3 percent from downtown. If Taylor can improve his shooting, his offensive game will complement any of the Longhorns’ big men to create a deadly inside-outside combo and send Texas deep into March—and perhaps early April.

5. Villanova

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A No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament last season, the Wildcats fell to eventual national champion UConn in the third round. However, apart from James Bell—the team’s leading scorer (14.4 PPG) from last year—Villanova gets the other four starters back. 

Junior and three-year starter Ryan Arcidiacono (9.9 PPG) will be a focal part of the team, and the likes of JayVaughn Pinkston (14.1 PPG) and Darrun Hilliard II (14.3 PPG) should provide plenty of support behind him. For a Nova team that played nine deep last year, finding depth should not be a problem again this season.

The three-point shooting (43.5 percent) that propelled the Wildcats time and time again last season will not disappear anytime soon either. Hilliard led the team with 41.4 percent shooting, and sophomore forward Kris Jenkins should get more playing time to show off his 37 percent range as well.

Look for Nova to run the table in the Big East and get another crack at being one of the top seeds this year.

4. North Carolina

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Marcus Paige established himself as one of the best point guards in the country last season for the Tar Heels, averaging 17.5 PPG and 4.2 APG to lead the team while shooting 38.9 percent from three-point range. 

Paige should be expected to pick up some more scoring duties this season with the losses of James Michael McAdoo and Leslie McDonald, but sophomore guard Nate Britt also has the potential to be a contributing member of Roy Williams’ offense if he can improve his shooting.

UNC also added three ESPN Top 100 recruits in Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson and Joel Berry; so expect them to provide plenty of depth to the Tar Heels’ squad and become X-factors to the team’s success. 

The key question for UNC, however, will be how well it can rebound and defend, and that starts with the frontcourt of Brice Johnson, J.P. Tokoto and Kennedy Meeks.

Johnson led the team with 1.3 BPG and Tokoto topped all Tar Heels with 1.6 SPG last season, while Meeks tied with Johnson for 6.1 RPG. All three players can improve in each of those areas. If they do, UNC can become a very formidable team.

3. Louisville

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The Cardinals were regarded as title favorite last season but fell victim to Kentucky and Aaron Harrison’s March magic in the Sweet 16. 

This is why when Montrezl Harrell decided he would return to Louisville for his junior year, it automatically vaulted the Cardinals back into title talks. 

Harrell’s 14 PPG and 8.4 PPG last season were a key to Louisville’s success, and despite losing Russ Smith and Luke Hancock, the Cardinals still have plenty of talent left in Chris Jones, Wayne Blackshear and Terry Rozier.

The pivotal point of Louisville’s success could be how well it handles its inaugural season in the ACC.

The Cardinals navigated around a rather easy AAC last season en route to both the regular-season and tournament conference titles, but the rigorous schedule of the ACC can either become a good measuring stick for Rick Pitino and the Cardinals, or wear the team out and expose its flaws.

2. Florida

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Consistently the best team in the country last season, the Gators won’t be far off from that caliber this year. 

Three-point specialist Michael Frazier II (44.7 percent from beyond the arc) is back this year, as well as Dorian Finney-Smith (8.7 PPG and 6.7 RPG) and Kasey Hill (5.5 PPG and 3.1 APG), who will take over at point guard. The Gators also got a highly touted recruit in Devin Robinson to provide some depth.

Florida will also get an extended look this time around at Chris Walker, the No. 12-ranked recruit by ESPN in 2013 who missed most of last season due to academic problems.

The 6’10” Walker averaged 1.9 PPG and 1.3 RPG in less than five minutes played per game last season but should be one of the Gators’ best weapons if he fits his hype.

If Billy Donovan can get these Gators clicking on all cylinders, then a return to the Final Four would be almost inevitable.

1. Kansas

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Losing two players who turned out to be top-three picks in the NBA draft should set most teams back a bit, but the Jayhawks would probably have no problem recovering with a few new additions in Cliff Alexander and Kelly Oubre. 

Perry Ellis (13.5 PPG) and Wayne Selden (9.7 PPG) are expected to have improved seasons, but the main concern for Kansas at the moment is who should be its starting point guard.

Frank Mason is the leading candidate for that position right now, but fellow sophomore Conner Frankamp and newcomer Devonte Graham can take that spot as well with steady performances throughout the season.

The talent is there for Kansas, but Bill Self needs to find a way to mesh all that together, as well as seeing more from a defense that allowed 70.1 PPG last year. That would be the difference between the Jayhawks going to Indy and falling short of expectations again.