NLDS 2014: Dodgers vs. Cardinals Position-by-Position Breakdown, Predictions
With the Wild Card Games out of the way, the MLB postseason now moves on to the division series round, and on the NL side of things, we have a rematch of the exciting NLCS series from a year ago.
The NL West champion Los Angeles Dodgers (94-68) earned the No. 2 seed, and they'll take on the NL Central champion St. Louis Cardinals (90-72), the team that ousted them in six games to win the NL pennant in 2013.
For the Cardinals, this is their 11th postseason appearance in the last 15 years, as they have claimed four NL pennants and two World Series titles over what has been an impressive span of sustained success.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are looking to return to the World Series for the first time since 1988 when they topped the Oakland Athletics in five games.
It's as good a matchup as any, as the Dodgers look to avenge last season's playoff exit and the Cardinals look to prove they are still the class of the National League, and the two teams match up well on paper.
So, starting with the catcher position, what follows is a position-by-position comparison of both teams, with an edge given to each spot, including the four projected starting pitchers and the bullpen.
Catcher
1 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| A.J. Ellis | 93 | .191 | .577 | 54 | 9 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Yadier Molina | 110 | .282 | .719 | 114 | 21 | 7 | 38 | 40 | 1 | 2.4 |
Position Overview
Yadier Molina was viewed by most as the best all-around catcher in baseball heading into the season, but the Cardinals backstop missed 40 games following thumb surgery, and even when he was on the field, his production was down compared to the past few years.
That being said, his value to the Cardinals is undeniable, and it goes beyond statistics. The pitching staff as a whole is better when he's managing the game behind the plate, he completely shuts down the run game and even in a down year, he's still one of the better offensive backstops in baseball.
Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis also dealt with injuries this season, missing a total of 54 games with knee and ankle issues. He's a plus defender with solid on-base skills (.323 OBP, 53/57 BB/K), but it's probably best not to expect much out of him offensively.
Drew Butera earned 48 starts behind the dish this season as well, supplanting Tim Federowicz as the backup catcher. He too is a plus defender behind the plate, and it would not be surprising to see him get a start or two in October as the team looks to keep Ellis fresh.
Edge: St. Louis Cardinals
Ellis is one of the better defensive catchers in the NL, but Molina is the best all-around catcher in baseball when he's healthy. Big edge to the Cardinals here.
First Baseman
2 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Adrian Gonzalez | 159 | .276 | .817 | 163 | 41 | 27 | 116 | 83 | 1 | 3.9 |
| Matt Adams | 142 | .288 | .779 | 152 | 34 | 15 | 68 | 55 | 3 | 2.3 |
Position Overview
For the better part of the first half, Matt Adams was the most productive hitter in the Cardinals lineup, and his emergence this season made the decision to trade a struggling Allen Craig a fairly easy one looking to the future.
Adams did a much better job using the whole field this year after a pull-happy rookie season, but he still struggles with left-handers, hitting just .190/.231/.298 against them on the year.
After a fairly slow start to the season, Adrian Gonzalez turned it on in the second half, hitting .314/.368/.561 with 13 home runs and 56 RBI after the break. That helped him to lead all of baseball with 116 RBI, the seventh 100-RBI season of his career.
He also led all first basemen with 12 defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs, and there is a good chance he claims his fourth career Gold Glove this year.
Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers
Adams had a nice first season as an everyday player, but Gonzalez is one of the most consistent run producers in all of baseball and a fantastic first baseman to boot.
Second Baseman
3 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Dee Gordon | 148 | .289 | .704 | 176 | 24 | 2 | 34 | 92 | 64 | 2.4 |
| Kolten Wong | 113 | .249 | .680 | 100 | 14 | 12 | 42 | 52 | 20 | 2.2 |
Position Overview
Essentially a forgotten man after hitting a combined .229/.289/.285 the past two seasons and spending much of 2013 in the minors, Dee Gordon made the most of a wide open second base situation this spring, winning the job over Cuban defector Alex Guerrero.
He ended up being one of the better table-setters in the league, earning his first All-Star nod and leading the National League in triples (12) and steals (64) as a true difference-maker on the bases.
Kolten Wong looked like one of the front-runners for NL Rookie of the Year honors entering the year, alongside Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton, but he went through some ups and downs in his first extended big league action.
A slow start earned him a brief demotion at the end of April, and he never exactly got hot offensively, but 12 home runs and 20 steals out of the second base position is decent production. The potential is there for him to be a 20/20 guy and a two-hole hitter, but for now, he's still a work in progress.
Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers
Wong will be motivated to erase last year's memory of being picked off at first base as a pinch runner, but Gordon is a fairly easy pick here. Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina did nail Gordon in his only stolen base attempt against him this season, and that will be one of the more interesting in-game matchups to watch.
.png?w=256)
Third Baseman
4 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Juan Uribe | 103 | .311 | .777 | 120 | 23 | 9 | 54 | 36 | 0 | 4.0 |
| Matt Carpenter | 158 | .272 | .750 | 162 | 33 | 8 | 59 | 99 | 5 | 3.0 |
Position Overview
Matt Carpenter failed to match his phenomenal 2013 production, when he led the NL in hits, doubles and runs scored in a breakout year, but he was still a plus catalyst atop the Cardinals lineup.
His .375 on-base percentage was good for seventh in the NL, and his 99 runs scored were third—and he did all that while making a seamless move from second to third base defensively.
Still going strong at 35 years old, Juan Uribe proved to be well worth the two-year, $15 million extension the Dodgers gave him in the offseason, though he did miss 51 games with a strained right hamstring.
Super utility man Justin Turner handled the hot corner while Uribe was on the disabled list, and he quietly had a phenomenal season, hitting .340/.404/.493 in 288 at-bats and posting a 4.3 WAR while playing all over the infield. He might not be penciled in as a regular in October, but he could still make a significant impact for the Dodgers.
Edge: St. Louis Cardinals
What Carpenter provides as a high on-base table-setter atop the Cardinals lineup makes him more valuable to his team than Uribe is, though Uribe does have the edge both defensively and in the power department.
Shortstop
5 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Hanley Ramirez | 128 | .283 | .817 | 127 | 35 | 13 | 71 | 64 | 14 | 3.5 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 157 | .263 | .779 | 147 | 38 | 21 | 75 | 61 | 3 | 5.8 |
Position Overview
The Cardinals handed Jhonny Peralta a four-year, $53 million contract last offseason, looking for an offensive boost at shortstop after Pete Kozma, Daniel Descalso and others combined to hit just .222/.280/.303 with four home runs there in 2013.
That wound up being one of the better moves of the offseason, as he set a franchise shortstop record with 21 home runs and also provided much better defense than expected. His 12.7 UZR/150 and 17 DRS both ranked third among NL shortstops, according to FanGraphs, trailing only Andrelton Simmons and Zack Cozart.
For the Dodgers, Hanley Ramirez did not have the season many were hoping for after he finished eighth in NL MVP voting a year ago with a 1.040 OPS and 20 home runs in just 304 at-bats.
He battled a myriad of injuries once again this year, missing a total of 29 games and struggling to get in a rhythm for much of the year. It's worth noting, though, that he hit .352/.425/.451 in September, so he enters the playoffs with some momentum.
Edge: Draw
Peralta had the better season, but Ramirez is capable of making a bigger impact if he keeps hitting like he has of late, so we'll call this one a draw.
Left Field
6 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Carl Crawford | 104 | .300 | .767 | 103 | 14 | 8 | 46 | 56 | 23 | 2.4 |
| Matt Holliday | 156 | .272 | .811 | 156 | 37 | 20 | 90 | 83 | 4 | 3.4 |
Position Overview
Like many of the Cardinals hitters, Matt Holliday had a relatively quiet first half, but he picked things up after the break to hit .281/.367/.515 with 14 home runs and 45 RBI in 63 second-half games.
Holliday has no shortage of postseason experience, and his 33 career postseason RBI are tied with Ryan Howard and Robinson Cano for eighth-most among active players. With postseason hero Carlos Beltran no longer in the mix, the team will look to him to come up big in October.
Carl Crawford has had a rough go of it since leaving Tampa Bay, dealing with a series of injuries, and he looked to be on his way to another subpar season here in 2014 when he was hitting .244/.282/.358 at the end of July.
The 33-year-old has been on fire since the beginning of August, though, hitting .373/.411/.520 over 150 at-bats to boost his average to an even .300 on the year.
"It feels real nice, being healthy,” Crawford told Mark Whicker of the Los Angeles Daily News. “The last few weeks, I’ve felt like I can do the things I’ve always done."
Edge: Draw
Both players are hot coming into the postseason, and both Crawford (31 G, .799 OPS, 7 HR, 15 RBI) and Holliday (59 G, .780 OPS, 12 HR, 33 RBI) have strong track records in the playoffs, so this one looks like a draw.
Center Field
7 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Yasiel Puig | 148 | .296 | .863 | 165 | 37 | 16 | 69 | 92 | 11 | 5.4 |
| Jon Jay | 140 | .303 | .750 | 125 | 16 | 3 | 46 | 52 | 6 | 2.8 |
Position Overview
It was a roller-coaster ride of a season for Yasiel Puig. He slumped badly in June (.248 BA, .657 OPS, 0 HR) and August (.216 BA, .544 OPS, 0 HR), but the energetic outfielder looks to be on the upswing heading into the playoffs.
He posted an .808 OPS with three home runs and 10 RBI in September, and he will be looking to duplicate his NLDS performance from a year ago when he was 8-for-17 with five runs scored against the Atlanta Braves.
When the Cardinals acquired Peter Bourjos in the offseason, the expectation was that he would see the bulk of the at-bats in center field, but Jon Jay simply outhit him and held on to his starting job in the process.
Strangely enough, the left-handed-hitting Jay actually tore up lefty pitching this season, with a .375/.404/.455 line. As a result, expect him to be in there against Clayton Kershaw in Game 1, but Bourjos could see a start before the series is over.
Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers
Puig is a difference-maker in more ways than one, and now that he seems to be past his midseason rough patch, he could be in for a big October. Jay is probably the safer bet to contribute, but Puig is capable of completely changing a series if he's hot.
Right Field
8 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Matt Kemp | 150 | .287 | .852 | 155 | 38 | 25 | 89 | 77 | 8 | 1.1 |
| Randal Grichuk | 47 | .245 | .678 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0.2 |
Position Overview
An argument can be made that Matt Kemp was the most dynamic player in baseball as recently as 2011, when he led the NL with 39 home runs and 126 RBI and stole 40 bases, finishing second in NL MVP voting.
Injuries derailed him the past two seasons, as he missed a combined 145 games, but he's healthy once again and producing at an elite level. He took home NL Player of the Month honors in September, posting a 1.047 OPS with an MLB-high nine home runs and 25 RBI, and he'll be counted on as a key bat in the middle of the Dodgers lineup.
The hope was that Oscar Taveras could seize the everyday right field job after Allen Craig was shipped to the Boston Red Sox, but he wrapped up his rookie season hitting just .239/.278/.312 with three home runs and 22 RBI in 234 at-bats.
Taveras will likely still see a start or two, but Randal Grichuk looks to have played his way into being the primary starter after hitting .320/.346/.520 with four doubles and two home runs over 50 at-bats in September.
Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers
Grichuk is the kind of player that could come out of nowhere and make a name for himself in the postseason, but Kemp has been as hot as any hitter in baseball over the past month, so he has to be the choice here.
Game 1 Starting Pitchers
9 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Clayton Kershaw | 27 | 21-3 | 1.77 | 1.81 | 0.857 | 31 | 239 | 198.1 | 7.5 |
| Adam Wainwright | 32 | 20-9 | 2.38 | 2.88 | 1.031 | 50 | 179 | 227.0 | 6.1 |
Position Comparison
You won't find a better pitching matchup this postseason, at least on paper, than Game 1 of this series.
Clayton Kershaw turned in a historic season on the mound; the 26-year-old should be a unanimous choice for his third NL Cy Young Award in the past four years and looks like the front-runner for NL MVP honors as well.
Adam Wainwright remains the horse of the Cardinals staff, and aside from a rough month of August, when he posted a 5.17 ERA in six starts, he's been lights out as well this year.
The two have squared off head-to-head just three times over the years, with their most recent meeting coming July 21, 2012, when Wainwright earned the victory and Kershaw was shelled for seven hits and eight runs in 5.2 innings.
As far as more recent history goes, Wainwright allowed five hits and one run in eight innings in his lone start against the Dodgers this season. Kershaw was 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals, with the better of the two starts coming at Dodger Stadium on June 29 when he threw seven shutout innings and struck out 13.
Edge: Draw
Kershaw enters the postseason with a chip on his shoulder after taking a pair of losses against the Cardinals in the NLCS a year ago. Banking on him to struggle again is probably wishful thinking if you're a Cardinals fan, but Wainwright is a gamer and he's not going to be intimidated by the moment. This is as good as it gets if you're a fan of dominant pitching.
Game 2 Starting Pitchers
10 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Zack Greinke | 32 | 17-8 | 2.71 | 2.97 | 1.152 | 43 | 207 | 202.1 | 4.3 |
| Lance Lynn | 33 | 15-10 | 2.74 | 3.35 | 1.262 | 72 | 181 | 203.2 | 3.7 |
Position Comparison
The Dodgers signed Zack Greinke to a six-year, $147 million deal prior to last season in hopes that he could be a second ace behind Clayton Kershaw, and he's been just that. In the first two seasons of that megadeal, he's gone 32-12 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.134 WHIP, and another top-10 Cy Young finish looks to be in his future.
Greinke was 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals during the season, and he was 10-2 with a 2.55 ERA in 15 starts at home, so it looks to be a decent matchup on his end.
Lance Lynn takes the ball for the Cardinals, after going 15-10 with a career-best 2.74 ERA (3.35 FIP) and emerging as the clear-cut No. 2 starter after Michael Wacha went down with a shoulder injury. The big right-hander was 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in his two starts against the Dodgers, as he allowed nine hits and seven runs (six earned) in two innings against them June 28.
Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers
Lynn has undoubtedly taken a step forward this season, but Greinke remains one of the elite pitchers in the NL and perhaps the best No. 2 starter in the game.
Game 3 Starting Pitchers
11 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 26 | 14-7 | 3.38 | 2.62 | 1.191 | 29 | 139 | 152.0 | 1.9 |
| John Lackey | 31 | 14-10 | 3.82 | 3.78 | 1.278 | 47 | 164 | 198.0 | 1.1 |
Position Comparison
John Lackey has gone 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA and seven quality starts in 10 games since joining the Cardinals in a deadline deal with the Boston Red Sox, but that move was made with his impressive postseason track record in mind.
The 35-year-old is 6-5 with a 3.03 ERA in 19 games (16 starts), and there is really no situation he hasn't seen at this point in his career. He earned the win in the clinching game of both the 2002 and 2013 World Series.
Lackey didn't face the Dodgers this season, but he went eight innings and allowed three hits and two runs against a similar lineup last year.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is currently slated to start Game 3, but he hasn't pitched since Sept. 12 while nursing a shoulder injury. He threw a simulated game on Wednesday as the next step in his rehab.
Ryu allowed nine hits and three runs in seven innings of work in his lone start against the Cardinals on June 27, taking the loss. He threw a gem in the NLCS last year, though, allowing three hits in seven shutout innings.
Edge: St. Louis Cardinals
Until Ryu proves he's healthy, the advantage has to go to the veteran Lackey in this one. Even if they were both 100 percent, the experience Lackey has in October would be enough for him to earn a slight edge.
Game 4 Starting Pitchers
12 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Dan Haren | 32 | 13-11 | 4.02 | 4.09 | 1.177 | 36 | 145 | 186.0 | -0.6 |
| Shelby Miller | 31 | 10-9 | 3.74 | 4.54 | 1.273 | 72 | 127 | 183.0 | 1.6 |
Position Comparison
Shelby Miller didn't factor in to the Cardinals' postseason plans a year ago, despite going 15-9 with a 3.06 ERA and finishing third in NL Rookie of the Year voting, as he was limited to mop-up duty out of the bullpen after Michael Wacha beat him out for a rotation spot.
Miller finished the year strong, going 2-0 with a 1.48 ERA in five September starts, but he struggled in his lone start against the Dodgers this season, allowing nine hits and six runs in six innings to take the loss.
Veteran Dan Haren looked like he might lose his rotation spot when he went 2-6 with a 7.26 ERA during a disastrous eight-start stretch at midseason, but he rebounded to go 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA over his final seven starts and could be an X-factor at the back of the Dodgers rotation.
However, the 34-year-old has not seen postseason action since 2006, and he didn't fare too well in his lone start against the Cardinals this season. In 4.2 innings of work, he allowed eight hits and three runs, but that was a part of the aforementioned midseason rough patch.
Edge: St. Louis Cardinals
Haren pitched well down the stretch, but not as well as Miller did, and the young right-hander has something to prove after the Cardinals essentially shut him down in the playoffs a year ago.
Bullpens
13 of 14
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison/Leaders
| Carlos Frias (15 G, 6.12 ERA) | LR | Michael Wacha (19 GS, 3.20 ERA) |
| Scott Elbert (7 G, 2.08 ERA) | MR | Marco Gonzales (10 G, 4.15 ERA) |
| Jamey Wright (61 G, 4.35 ERA) | MR | Sam Freeman (44 G, 2.61 ERA) |
| Brandon League (63 G, 2.57 ERA) | MR | Seth Maness (73 G, 2.91 ERA) |
| Pedro Baez (20 G, 2.63 ERA) | MR | Randy Choate (61 G, 4.50 ERA) |
| J.P. Howell (68 G, 2.39 ERA) | SU | Carlos Martinez (57 G, 4.03 ERA) |
| Brian Wilson (61 G, 4.66 ERA) | SU | Pat Neshek (71 G, 1.87 ERA) |
| Kenley Jansen (68 G, 2.76 ERA) | CL | Trevor Rosenthal (72 G, 3.20 ERA) |
| Jansen (44-of-49) | SV | Rosenthal (45-of-51) |
| Howell (27) | HLD | Neshek (25) |
| Jansen (13.9) | K/9 | Rosenthal (11.1) |
| Jansen (1.2) | WAR | Neshek (2.3) |
Bullpen Overview
The bullpen was a serious weapon for the Cardinals in the playoffs last season, as a group led by the hard-throwing trio of Kevin Siegrist, Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal combined to post a 2.01 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .183 BAA in 49.1 innings of work.
Things did not go quite as smoothly during the regular season this year, though, as the Cardinals ranked 16th in the MLB with a 3.62 bullpen ERA.
The 45 saves from Rosenthal this year look nice, but they rarely came easy, as he had a 3.20 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the year, and his six blown saves trailed only Rafael Soriano (7) among NL closers.
Martinez is still capable of mowing guys down, and the unheralded duo of Pat Neshek and Seth Maness has been solid, but the Cardinals are lacking a lights-out lefty with Siegrist struggling and unlikely to be on the roster.
The Dodgers added Chris Perez and Jamey Wright in free agency and re-signed Brian Wilson and J.P. Howell, but their bullpen was still shaky at best, as they finished 22nd in the MLB with a 3.80 ERA.
A bounce-back season from Brandon League helped offset what a flop Perez was, and the second-half emergence of rookie Pedro Baez gives them another middle relief option. Bridging the gap to closer Kenley Jansen could be a legitimate issue this October, but he remains one of the best in the business if the team can get it to him.
Edge: Draw
The bullpen is not a strength for either of these teams. Both have power arms capable of dominating when they're on and struggling mightily when they're not. I'd rather hand the ball to Kenley Jansen than Trevor Rosenthal with a one-run lead in the ninth, so maybe a slight edge to the Dodgers, but we'll call it a draw.
Series Prediction
14 of 14
Game 1: St. Louis Cardinals 1, Los Angeles Dodgers 0
The pitching duel we've all been waiting for lives up to its billing in Game 1, with both pitchers dominating through seven innings. The Cardinals finally get to Kershaw in the eighth, plating an unearned run on a throwing error by Yasiel Puig, and Wainwright finishes off the complete-game shutout.
Game 2: Los Angeles Dodgers 5, St. Louis Cardinals 2
The Dodgers get to Lance Lynn early in this one, striking for four runs in the third inning, and he gets the early hook as a result. Michael Wacha comes on in relief and keeps things interesting, but the Cardinals can't string together enough hits against a sharp Zack Greinke and head home with the series knotted up 1-1.
Game 3: Los Angeles Dodgers 4, St. Louis Cardinals 3
John Lackey shows Cardinals fans why the team paid such a big price to acquire him at the deadline, allowing one run in seven innings of work. He departs with a 3-1 lead, but the bullpen gives it away for the Cardinals, as Justin Turner comes through with a huge two-run pinch-hit double in the ninth off Trevor Rosenthal.
Game 4: St. Louis Cardinals 8, Los Angeles Dodgers 2
Facing elimination, the Cardinals hand the ball to the guy they buried in the bullpen a year ago in Shelby Miller, and he comes through in the biggest start of his career. The Cardinals spot him a crooked number in the third inning and pile on from there, and Miller pitches seven strong innings to earn the win.
Game 5: Los Angeles Dodgers 2, St. Louis Cardinals 0
Game 5 gives us another Kershaw vs. Wainwright classic, and both pitchers are on their game again. Wainwright gives up one run in seven innings of work, and the Dodgers tack on an insurance run against the bullpen, but it isn't necessary. Kershaw goes the distance, allowing just two hits in a complete-game shutout, avenging his NLCS failure from a year ago and eliminating the Cardinals.
Unless otherwise noted, all individual and team stats are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and accurate through the end of the 2014 regular season.
The postseason rosters referenced in this piece are strictly a projection, as neither team has officially announced the 25 guys it will carry in the NLDS and is not required to until Friday morning.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
