5 Bold and Off-the-Wall College Football Predictions for the Month of October
As memorable as September was in college football, it's nothing compared to the "Shock-tober" of surprises in store this next month.
The weather will turn toward more traditional football conditions—enough of this lightning-delay nonsense; we much prefer blowing snow—but the action on the field will remain red hot. So, too, will the temperatures of some coaches' seats, as the pressure to win will lead some to make some desperate moves.
October will also bring us the first official rankings released by the College Football Playoff selection committee, and the lead-up to that unveiling on Oct. 27 will cause nearly every game in the country to have an as-yet-unknown impact on those standings.
What other craziness can we expect? Scroll through to see five bold predictions for October.
At Least Two Coaches Will Quit or Get Fired, but Not the Ones You Expect
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Michigan's Brady Hoke and Florida's Will Muschamp might need to be treated for third-degree burns considering how hot their seats have gotten this season. But while both may not make it beyond this season, don't expect either to get a pink slip before this year is over.
That won't be the same for some other FBS coaches, though. We've already had one firing (Kansas' Charlie Weis) and one resignation (June Jones of SMU) in the first five weeks of the 2014 season, and at least a few more will suddenly have their Saturdays free at some point this fall.
Here's a short list of coaches who could quit or be fired in October:
- Tim Beckman, Illinois
- Norm Chow, Hawaii
- Larry Blakeney, Troy
- Bill Blankenship, Tulsa
- Dan Enos, Central Michigan
- Larry Fedora, North Carolina
- Paul Haynes, Kent State
- George O'Leary, UCF
- Paul Petrino, Idaho
- Paul Rhoads, Iowa State
The list above includes three schools (Idaho, Kent State and Troy) that are winless, and in the case of Troy (0-5), it's the school's worst start since 1982. The 67-year-old Blakeney has been the Trojans coach since 1991, leading the program's move to FBS in 2002. He had five straight seasons of eight-plus wins and four bowl appearances from 2006 to 2010, but since then he's 14-27.
Mississippi State Will Be the Lone Unbeaten Team Left
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We entered October with 17 undefeated FBS teams. At least four will go down this week, thanks to a quartet of matchups between unbeaten teams (starting with Thursday's Arizona vs. Oregon game).
Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports opined earlier this week that "by kickoff Nov. 1, we may be counting the unblemished records on one hand."
We agree, but our prediction is even more defined. Here's saying that there will only be one perfect team left on Nov. 1, and that will be Mississippi State.
It's not that the Bulldogs don't face a tough slate in October—far from it. They have back-to-back games against teams currently ranked in the Top Six of The Associated Press poll, beginning with Saturday's visit from unbeaten and fifth-ranked Texas A&M. But that game is in Starkville, as is next week's game against No. 6 Auburn, and MSU is coming off an impressive road win over then-unbeaten LSU.
After that, all the Bulldogs have left this month would be an Oct. 25 trip to Kentucky.
Every unbeaten team has at least one game this month that can be considered very losable, making this scenario possible.
Florida State hosts Notre Dame and visits Louisville. Oregon plays Oct. 11 at UCLA, and both of those unbeatens have to play at a much-improved California team later this month. Alabama is at Ole Miss on Saturday and then goes to Arkansas. Oklahoma has to play at 3-0 TCU this week, gets rival Texas at the Cotton Bowl and faces Kansas State at home.
Auburn and Texas A&M would both fall at Mississippi State, while Baylor could fall at West Virginia, and Notre Dame has both Stanford and Florida State on the October slate. If Ole Miss knocks off Alabama this weekend, it still has to go to A&M the following Saturday and LSU on Oct. 25.
Nebraska plays Saturday night at Michigan State, and if it manages to win there, it could just as easily still fall two weeks later at Northwestern. TCU could knock off Oklahoma this week, but then the Horned Frogs have to play at Baylor.
And remaining unbeatens Arizona, BYU, Georgia Tech and even Marshall all have losable games this month.
A Dark Horse Will Emerge to Lead the Heisman Race
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As it stands now, the Heisman Trophy race has some clear front-runners in the form of Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, Georgia running back Todd Gurley, Texas A&M quarterback Kenny Hill and reigning trophy winner Jameis Winston of Florida State. Other notables include Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah, Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon and Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper.
By the end of October, though, there will be some new names on that short list, possibly even at the top of the heap. As Chris Huston of HeismanPundit.com noted, "We've seen some late-breaking runs at the Heisman in recent years, which means there could be some candidacies out there that are still in the percolating stage."
Cincinnati quarterback Gunner Kiel has thrown 14 touchdown passes in three games, and there's no indication that pace will slow down as the Bearcats move into American Athletic Conference play. The Heisman usually ends up going to a prolific player on one of the nation's top-ranked teams, but outsiders have managed to sneak in there.
Andre Ware used Houston's run-and-shoot attack to set passing records en route to winning the 1989 Heisman, and if Kiel keeps slinging it as much as he has, he could have his name mentioned as we get into November.
The same goes for the likes of Alabama quarterback Blake Sims, BYU quarterback Taysom Hill, East Carolina quarterback Shane Carden and Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott, especially if our prediction on the previous slide comes to fruition.
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Two FBS Single-Game Individual Records Will Be Set
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According to NCAA's website, last season saw a dozen FBS individual single-game records set or tied. Washington State quarterback Connor Halliday was responsible for two of those when he attempted a record 89 passes (and tied the FBS mark with 58 completions) in a 62-38 loss at Oregon last October.
Expect at least two more records to fall this October, as in any given game the conditions could be right for a player to put together the performance of a lifetime.
It could be because of the level of competition faced, such as when former Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch ran for 321 yards against 1-11 Western Michigan last November to break his own record of 316 set earlier in 2013. Or maybe a game goes into multiple overtimes, such as when Navy beat San Jose State in triple overtime last November as Keenan Reynolds scored all three of his team's OT touchdowns to set the FBS record for rushing TDs by a quarterback with seven.
Or it could just be a fluke occurrence, such as when Memphis linebacker Ryan Coleman tied an FBS record with two fumble returns for TDs in a loss to SMU last October.
Records are meant to be broken, and a few will be shattered this month.
Jabrill Peppers Will Become a Starter on Offense
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Michigan true freshman Jabrill Peppers was the No. 3 overall prospect in the 2014 recruiting class and the top-rated "athlete" in the nation heading into college, according to 247Sports. He was a standout defensive back, running back and return specialist in high school, and the possibility of Peppers being a two-way player had Wolverines fans salivating during the summer.
So far, though, we've mostly seen the 6'1", 202-pound Peppers play as a cornerback, where he's registered eight tackles in three games. He's also returned one punt for six yards.
By the end of October, though, don't be surprised to see Peppers lining up on offense in some fashion. It could be in the backfield or as a slot receiver, but with Michigan's offense sputtering—it has managed just 24 points in three games against power-five programs, losing all three—he could be just the spark it needs to get going.
Peppers has missed two games because of injury this season, including last week's loss to Minnesota. But Saturday's trip to Rutgers will mark a homecoming for Peppers, who is from East Orange, New Jersey, which is less than 30 miles from High Point Solutions Stadium in Piscataway.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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