15 College Football Teams on High Upset Alert in Month of October
October is when the weather begins to turn, and when dream seasons often fall as frequently as the leaves.
The number of potential upsets this month is astounding, as pretty much every top team faces at least one opponent in October that is able to knock them off their high perch. These aren't the only tough games they'll have over the next 31 days, but they are the ones that might result in a loss if not given proper focus and attention.
Last October we saw Stanford fall at Utah, Missouri win at Georgia, Texas take down Oklahoma and UCF surprise Louisville, and that's just a few of the upsets.
For the purposes of this piece, we've set some parameters to determine something as a potential upset. For teams currently ranked in the Associated Press Top 25, games on the road against teams within 10 spots of them in the latest poll wouldn't count but any home loss to a lower-ranked team would. Same goes for any loss to an unranked opponent, home or away.
For unranked teams, upsets are based on records and location.
Take a look at which teams need to make sure their upset alert siren is tuned and ready to handle October's potential pitfalls.
Alabama Crimson Tide
1 of 15
Potential upset: Oct. 11 at Arkansas
As the standard bearer for the SEC over the past few years, Alabama (4-0) always gets everyone's best shot. Just look at the hoopla surrounding the Crimson Tide's trip to Ole Miss on Saturday, and that's from a team that's ranked only eight spots behind them.
The trip to Fayetteville the following week may prove the more difficult of games, though, because of how improved Arkansas looks from a year ago. The Razorbacks lost in overtime last week to Texas A&M, but it was leading by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter before a late collapse.
Arkansas' power run game has been able to move the ball on everyone so far, and while Alabama's defensive front will be tougher than any it has previously faced it still will enable the Razorbacks to control tempo. Imagine that Alabama would for once be the team trying to speed things up, especially if Arkansas is able to get a lead early.
Alabama has posted back-to-back 52-0 shutouts against Arkansas, but those results won't impact how close this game should be.
Baylor Bears
2 of 15
Potential upset: Oct. 18 at West Virginia
Baylor (4-0) has already won a pair of road games, and had little trouble doing so, but that came against Buffalo and Iowa State. Those teams didn't have the kind of weapons to keep up with the Bears' offense.
West Virginia does.
The Mountaineers have already shown their tenacity this season, playing Alabama tough in Atlanta to start the season and giving Oklahoma a fierce battle two weeks ago in Morgantown. The latter game was tied at 24 at halftime before Oklahoma asserted its will over the final two quarters to win by 12.
Baylor's fast-paced and explosive attack works on rhythm, and if mistakes happen early and a home crowd gets amped up it could be in trouble. Last year the Bears were challenged hard at Kansas State and TCU, and were blown out at Oklahoma State, all situations where they weren't able to jump on their opponents and beat them into the ground.
Some issues that have gone mostly unnoticed during its 4-0 start could come back to bite Baylor in a big game, such as its penalty issues (it averages nine flags and 76.3 penalty yards per game) and a woeful 1 of 6 on field goals, which is the second-worst percentage in FBS.
BYU Cougars
3 of 15
Potential upsets: Oct. 9 at UCF, Oct. 24 at Boise State
For BYU (4-0) to get a shot at earning a bid into one of the College Football Playoff's bowl games, or even possibly a semifinal berth, it will need to go undefeated. That basically puts the Cougars on alert for upsets nearly every game that remains this season, though two particular ones stand out.
UCF has struggled to a 1-2 start, but with the experience from last year's run to a Fiesta Bowl title—where it upset Baylor—still there for returning players to feed off, this will be as tough as any game BYU has all season.
Get past that one, and two weeks later a trip to nemesis Boise State could end up being the Cougars' last hurdle to overcome to reach regular-season perfection.
BYU figures to be favored in its remaining eight games, something its coaching staff used as fodder to call a "red alert" during the bye week, according to Dick Harmon of the Desert News. He said the Cougars worked on cutting down on mistakes during its break, particularly when it came to getting called for penalties:
"The Cougars are a penalty machine. They lead the nation in penalties with just over 105 yards per game. If the trend continues, they'll end the season by blowing up the numbers for penalties and yards in the Bronco Mendenhall era with 135 for 1,302 yards.
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Those flags, which are coming a lot on defense, are preventing BYU from blowing teams out, and could come back to bite them in a tough road environment.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Florida State Seminoles
4 of 15
Potential upsets: Oct. 18 vs. Notre Dame, Oct. 30 at Louisville
If these past two games have shown us anything, this year's Florida State team (5-0) isn't anywhere close to as dominant as the one that breezed through the regular season en route to the national title last year. Through personnel issues and performance, the wins over Clemson and at North Carolina State could easily have both been losses, and they weren't even considered among the Seminoles' toughest on the 2014 schedule.
Those come later this month, first when a likely unbeaten Notre Dame comes to Tallahassee and then when FSU plays on a Thursday night against a strong Louisville defense. Both qualify as major upset alerts.
While FSU's offense still needs to get better with the run, having Jameis Winston on the field helps offset most deficiencies. But he can't help a Seminoles defense that has performed far below expectations, as ESPN.com's Jared Shanker notes:
"It is not an issue that will be fixed over the course of a week, if it can be fixed at all. The Florida State defense is not as talented as it was last season at every level. Shoddy tackling has added to the mediocre defensive numbers, too.
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Unless FSU gets its house in order soon, it will not go unbeaten in the regular season again. It may not escape October with less that two losses.
Georgia Bulldogs
5 of 15
Potential upsets: Oct. 11 at Missouri; Oct. 18 at Arkansas
Take away the walkover win against winless Troy, and every game has been nearly 60 minutes of uncertainty and doubt for Georgia (3-1). As exciting as it is to watch Todd Gurley and the Bulldogs run the ball, the continued issues of their defense have made games like last Saturday's 35-32 win over Tennessee closer than they should be.
It's what happened last year when Georgia lost at home to Missouri, as well as at Vanderbilt, and with back-to-back road games coming up later this month it's very likely to occur again.
Missouri just showed its mettle by being able to come back at South Carolina, and the Tigers have the kind of defensive line that could slow down Georgia's run game. Arkansas poses an even more daunting challenge, as the Razorbacks' massive offensive line figures to have its way with the Bulldogs' front seven.
LSU Tigers
6 of 15
Potential upset: Oct. 11 at Florida
All attention in Baton Rouge is focused on Saturday's game at Auburn, and rightfully so. After starting off 0-1 in SEC play, LSU (4-1) needs to win that game in order to remain in the West Division race.
But regardless of what happens with that result, overlooking the following week's game at Florida could be troublesome. Facing the Gators in the Swamp might be even more imposing, depending on what happens with that team this weekend at Tennessee.
With Florida's Will Muschamp on the hot seat, he needs to pull out some significant wins to hold on to his job. Being able to beat LSU would help with that cause, and if the Gators are riding a two-game losing streak they could play with an extra level of desperation.
LSU has lost three of its last four games in Gainesville, and with the Tigers still figuring themselves out offensively this is an upset waiting to happen.
Marshall Thundering Herd
7 of 15
Potential upset: Oct. 11 vs. Middle Tennessee
Marshall (4-0) has as clear a path as any of the 17 remaining unbeaten teams to stay perfect throughout the regular season, as every team left on its schedule already has at least two losses.
But Conference USA is one of those toss-up leagues where teams tend to win on the road more often than in other conferences, which fits in well with the fact the Thundering Herd's toughest game in the next month is on their own field in Huntington against Middle Tennessee. That would be the Middle Tennessee team that just won by 13 points at upstart Old Dominion.
Marshall has one of the best and most experienced quarterbacks in the country in senior Rakeem Cato, who has passed for more than 11,000 yards and 101 touchdowns, but if he has an off game anything can happen. Middle Tennessee knocked another veteran quarterback, Old Dominion's Taylor Heinicke, off his game last week, and could do it again.
Miami Hurricanes
8 of 15
Potential upset: Oct. 11 vs. Cincinnati
Miami (3-2) has one of the toughest October schedules that isn't getting talked about, with road trips to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech on the slate that will make or break the Hurricanes' chances to win the ACC's Coastal Division.
But it's the game in between, at home against Cincinnati, that puts up the biggest red flag.
Cincinnati has a quarterback, Notre Dame transfer Gunner Kiel, who has thrown for 14 touchdowns in three games. Tommy Tuberville has let his passer loose and shows no signs of limiting his throws, especially since Cincinnati's defense isn't making any stops and the Bearcats will need to score as much as possible to win.
Miami sits 15th in the country in pass defense, but it's yet to face a big-armed quarterback. The Hurricanes won't see that in their other games this month, which will be more run-heavy opponents, so Kiel and Cincinnati could sneak up on them with an air onslaught.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
9 of 15
Potential upset: Oct. 18 at Northwestern
Nebraska (5-0) is off to a great start, with a strong offense and a defense that's minimizing the big plays it's allowed to this point. The Cornhuskers face their toughest test yet when they visit Michigan State on Saturday, a huge game that will give us a much better idea of what this team is made of.
The emotions associated with that game will be high, and if they linger they could have an effect on future contests. Even with Nebraska having a bye week after going to East Lansing, the potential for a hangover the following game is always there.
Northwestern just went on the road and blew out Penn State, playing like a completely different team than what was shown in nonconference play. The Wildcats are a bit of a mystery, and won't draw as much focus from Nebraska as other teams, similar to last year when Nebraska needed a Hail Mary touchdown catch to win at home.
Ohio State Buckeyes
10 of 15
Potential upsets: Oct. 4 at Maryland; Oct. 25 at Penn State
Ohio State (3-1) may have three victories by an average score of 35 points, but in wins over Navy and Cincinnati they trailed early both times and last week against Cincinnati nearly blew a 30-7 lead.
The schedule keeps getting harder for the Buckeyes, starting with Saturday's trip to surprisingly strong Maryland. It will be the Terrapins' first-ever Big Ten Conference home game.
"This will be a big-time atmosphere," Ohio State coach Urban Meyer said during his weekly press conference. "I imagine they've been working on this one for a while."
Maryland has shown amazing mettle this season by winning all three of its road games, and its fans will be amped to see the home team take on a perennial Big Ten power. Ohio State's players are used to getting everyone's best shot, but this trip could be much harder than others in the past because it's a new environment.
A more familiar trip at the end of the month, to Penn State and its 100,000 white-clad fans, will also be a major challenge for the inconsistent Buckeyes.
Oklahoma Sooners
11 of 15
Potential upsets: Oct. 4 at TCU, Oct. 11 vs. Texas (at Dallas)
With its highest-ranked opponents all set to come to Norman, Oklahoma (4-0) has the kind of schedule that makes going unbeaten in the regular season very possible. That is, if the Sooners can successfully navigate the monthlong journey away from home they're currently in the midst of.
Oklahoma weathered the first storm, taking charge in the second half to win at West Virginia on Oct. 20, but the sailing isn't any smoother the next two games. First up is a trip to TCU, a relative unknown that is getting a lot of praise for its 3-0 start but hasn't faced a true challenge. Following that up is the annual clash with rival Texas at the Cotton Bowl, a game where win-loss records tend not to matter.
Last year, Oklahoma rolled into the Red River Shootout at 5-0, including a narrow three-point home win over TCU. Texas was 3-2, with a pair of narrow wins over Kansas State and Iowa State.
Texas beat the Sooners 36-20, and Oklahoma plummeted in the rankings, only climbing back toward the top in the final month with wins over Oklahoma State and Alabama. A loss in these next two weeks would have a major impact on Oklahoma's College Football Playoff chances.
Stanford Cardinal
12 of 15
Potential upset: Oct. 18 at Arizona State
Stanford's road schedule this season is like a minefield, with no real breaks based on the current state of the teams the Cardinal (3-1) will face away from home. It slipped past that first opponent, winning 20-13 at Washington, and now head to unbeaten Notre Dame.
Later in the season are trips to Oregon and UCLA, both of whom are also perfect so far in 2014.
Somehow, this makes the mid-October trip to Arizona State seem fairly unimposing, but that would be a mistake. The Sun Devils may have just lost 62-27 at home to UCLA, and could lose again this week at USC, but when they host Stanford there will be a few things working in their favor.
The first is revenge, as ASU lost twice to Stanford last season (including in the Pac-12 title game). The other is the expected return of quarterback Taylor Kelly, who suffered a foot injury on Sept. 13 and didn't play in the UCLA loss.
UCLA Bruins
13 of 15
Potential upset: Oct. 18 at California
UCLA (4-0) is coming off its best performance of the season, winning by 35 points at previously unbeaten Arizona State. The Bruins have their quarterback back, and Brett Hundley looks primed to lead his team to a big season and its many remaining challenges.
That begins next week when UCLA hosts Oregon in what could be a preview of the Pac-12 title game, as well as an early determinant for who the conference might send into the College Football Playoff. If the Bruins can knock off the Ducks, they'd figure to remain unbeaten until the final stretch in late November.
But there's that little detail of having to go to Berkeley later this month, a place where they've not won since 1998.
California is much improved from a year ago, and has as potent an offense as any team in the country with 104 points in its last two games. The Golden Bears also have the benefit of getting to host UCLA right after the big Oregon game, a scenario where a lackluster effort is very possible.
USC Trojans
14 of 15
Potential upsets: Oct. 11 at Arizona
USC (3-1) already have been a victim of the upset bug this season, losing at Boston College in the wake of a hard-fought win over Stanford the week before. The same situation could happen later this month with the trip to Arizona.
The Trojans host Arizona State on Saturday, a key game for the Pac-12 South Division standings and one where players who were on the team last year will want to avenge an embarrassing loss to the Sun Devils that served as the impetus to fire coach Lane Kiffin. Heading to Tucson a week later could be a letdown scenario, especially if Arizona loses badly at Oregon this week.
USC remains a major player in the playoff race, despite its early loss, because it has beat Stanford and ends the season against top-10 teams UCLA and Notre Dame. It can't afford any other losses, though, and a setback at Arizona is very possible.
Wisconsin Badgers
15 of 15
Potential upset: Oct. 25 vs. Maryland
Late last season, Wisconsin (3-1) was out of the running for the Big Ten championship but was still a contender to earn an at-large BCS bid. Then the Badgers came out sluggish in the regular-season finale at home against Penn State, and the loss ended their hopes of going to a BCS bowl for the fourth straight year.
The Big Ten's divisional realignment has Wisconsin as a top candidate (along with Iowa and Nebraska) to claim the West title and a spot in the conference title game. It doesn't face those teams until mid-November, and lucked out by not having East powers like Michigan State and Ohio State on the schedule.
Yet it did land Maryland, which didn't seem like a big deal before the season but is becoming a more significant game now that the Terrapins have started 3-0 on the road.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
