Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets: What Are Experts Saying About New York?

The New York Jets host the Detroit Lions in Week 4, seeking redemption against the NFC North.

A sense of urgency is palpable after tough back-to-back losses. The Jets offense has sputtered, especially in the red zone, raising questions about Geno Smith’s efficiency as the quarterback.

The Lions are playing exceptional defense after holding Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to seven points in the previous week.

Calvin Johnson’s 329 receiving yards rank fourth in the league. According to Brian Lewis of the New York Post, Megatron cannot wait to take the field against the Jets’ vulnerable secondary.

At 1-2, the season is already in dire straits for New York with a difficult schedule ahead. Nonetheless, the players as well as the coaching staff are partially to blame for the added pressure in the early stages of this season.

The Lions are looking to stay atop of the NFC North with their first road win in 2014. Here’s what the experts are buzzing about leading to Sunday’s game.

Rich Cimini: Marty Mornhinweg Too Pass-Happy

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The majority of the blame for the Jets’ offensive woes begins and ends with Geno Smith’s erratic play in the red zone. According to Rich Cimini of ESPN New York, the blame goes further up the food chain. Cimini highlights offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg’s heavy reliance on the pass attack.

A total of 46 pass plays and 26 run plays against a porous Bears run defense isn’t Smith’s fault. Mornhinweg must put together a game plan to expose weaknesses and make adjustments accordingly. The Jets’ second-ranked rushing attack can solidify victories and limit the opposition’s possessions in critical moments.

It’s obvious the Jets are offensively geared to pound the ball with three capable running backs. The answer to minimizing Smith's mistakes inside the 20-yard line could be as simple as handing the ball off to running backs Chris Johnson, Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell.

Handing the ball off does not designate the quarterback as a game manager who is incapable of making plays, but it does prevent the urge to do too much when it’s not necessary.

Dan Hanzus: Chris Ivory Far Better Than Chris Johnson

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New York is currently averaging 157 rushing yards per game, using Johnson and Ivory evenly. Dan Hanzus of NFL.com decisively describes Ivory as the better back by far.

After leading the Jets backfield last season, the former New Orleans Saints running back continues to show his value. He ultimately sealed a win in the season opener against the Oakland Raiders with a 71-yard run to the end zone in the mid-fourth quarter. The fifth-year running back averages 5.7 yards per carry compared to CJ2K’s 3.5 yards per carry.

Multiple reports including Pro Football Talk, the New York Daily News and the New York Post allude to Ivory getting more touches with the hot hand.

It should be noted that Johnson is a speed runner who excels in spread situations with room to catch or run—similar to C.J Spiller of the Buffalo Bills. Fred Jackson complements Spiller by attacking in between the tackles. The dynamic is comparable to New York’s backfield.

The former 2,000-yard rusher holds the NFL combine 40-yard dash record at 4.24, per CBSSports.com. Gang Green must find a way to utilize his remarkable speed before he’s on the other side of 30 and slowing down. Johnson benefits from screen passes and sweep plays that allow him room to run and make defenders whiff on tackles.

There’s no doubt Johnson has been less productive than Ivory up to this point. However, Mornhinweg hasn’t accentuated CJ2K’s strengths by designing opportunities to catch and run in space as opposed to running between the tackles.

Tyson Rauch: Containing Calvin Johnson

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Rex Ryan's glaring problem is patching up his pass defense to prevent Megatron from taking over the game. Tyson Rauch of CBS New York suggests a "contain the beast" approach. According to NJ.com, Antonio Allen aspires to mold himself into a shutdown cornerback and completely shut out Johnson.

Though Allen’s aspirations aren’t a likely scenario, it’s good to see he’s up for the challenge. He’ll also get help over the top from Dawan Landry or Calvin Pryor.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford will test the Jets secondary early and often, but the attention Johnson draws is most beneficial to running back Reggie Bush. Containing Calvin downfield could potentially leave gaps for Bush to attack underneath for significant yards after the catch.

Dee Milliner continues to battle a quadriceps injury. His chances at playing against the Lions are slim, per the New York Daily News. 

Steve Serby: Geno Supporter and Gary Myers: Geno Critic

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The major buzz this week stems from the divide between Geno supporters and critics. Steve Serby of the New York Post isn’t ready to send the Jets’ signal-caller to the bench:

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The calls for Michael Vick are predictable, and they are also premature and misguided. The Jets made an organizational decision to put their eggs in Geno Smith’s basket, and just because he left with them scrambled Monday night doesn’t mean you make a change.

It doesn’t mean you can’t get Vick warming up in the bullpen the next time Smith turns the red zone into the dead zone with cockeyed decision-making and misguided throws. Beautiful arm-talent throws between the 20s is not the definition of progress.

"

Serby further explains that Vick can be used sparingly, but he’s far from a viable replacement.

Gary Myers of the New York Daily News takes the other side of the argument:

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Geno Smith is a better player this season and it’s not hard to see it. But when the Jets take the field Sunday against Detroit, he should be playing for his job.

Sunday’s game is the start of a brutal four-game stretch in which the Jets also face Philip Rivers in San Diego, Peyton Manning at home and Tom Brady in Foxborough. If Smith is the reason the Jets are 1-3 heading to San Diego, that’s when Rex Ryan should go to the bullpen for Michael Vick.

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Michael Vick is 5-11 in the last 16 games as a starting quarterback. In Philadelphia, he played alongside arguably the best running back in the NFL today, LeSean McCoy. DeSean Jackson was his go-to receiver, and Vick had two pass-catching tight ends within his arsenal.

Vick was a subpar quarterback with viable weapons on offense while playing in Chip Kelly’s uptempo scheme that’s currently flourishing with Nick Foles.

The Jets offense features less consistent pass-catchers—the most prominent of the group, Decker, is gimpy with a bad hamstring.

The 34-year-old veteran isn’t accurate enough—with a 56 percent career completion percentage—to pull the Jets out of a rut if Smith falters. At this stage in his career, Vick's legs aren’t of much use—not because he lost significant speed but because one hit could end his season.

Myers points out Smith is a better quarterback this season than last. To his point, it would be irrational to bench an improved player for a backup on the decline who hasn’t played well since 2011.

The Jets are better off allowing Smith to play through the rough times. If he survives and makes plays, it will build his confidence. If he crumbles under pressure and regresses throughout the season, New York can look to draft a long-term solution in the offseason.

Either way, it’s a more practical approach than starting a QB with possibly two years left in his career and only two playoff wins on his resume.

Mark Schlereth and Jerome Bettis Pick: Detroit Lions

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Both ESPN analysts Mark Schlereth and Jerome Bettis picked the Lions over the Jets.

There is a noteworthy injury: Stephen Tulloch tore his ACL tear after celebrating a sack last week. He was Detroit’s second-leading tackler.

As previously mentioned, Smith’s mistakes can be corrected from week to week with situational game management practice to ease the pressures on game day.

Bettis was quick to point out the Jets' ability to find losses in games that should have resulted in victories, but the Lions' history proves they’re guilty of the same fault. A 2-1 record three games into the season doesn’t suggest the Lions purged themselves of late-game blunders, nor does it suggest they’re juggernauts in the NFL.

In Week 2, the Carolina Panthers were able to stifle Detroit’s offense with a stout defense up front and succeeded in keeping Megatron out of the end zone. The Panthers defense was led by their front seven, who sacked Stafford four times and picked off one of his passes.

The Jets are set up to replicate Carolina’s game plan with constant pressure up front to force turnovers.

Stafford has one less interception than Smith—both QBs have three touchdown passes and a completion percentage slightly above 60 percent. The difference in quarterback play between Smith and Stafford is marginal.

Decker’s availability is the key to the Jets’ victory. Cimini reports the Jets' leading wide receiver returned to practice, which is an encouraging sign he’ll play on Sunday.

In disagreement with Schlereth and Bettis, the Jets win 17-16 in a physical game at home.

All statistics are provided via Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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