World Series 2014 Odds: Breaking Down the Chances of All 10 Playoff Teams
The party that is the 2014 Major League Baseball postseason hasn't started just yet, but all the guests have arrived. And drinks (i.e., champagne) have been served.
With the final playoff berth having been clinched and the division winners determined on an action-packed Sunday, we now know not only who's in and who's out but also who plays whom.
With the win-or-go-home Wild Card Games set for Tuesday, Sept. 30, in the American League and Wednesday, Oct. 1, in the National League, it's time to lay out the odds for all 10 teams when it comes to winning it all.
San Francisco Giants (88-74, 2nd NL Wild Card)
1 of 10
Set up to play the Wild Card Game on the road in Pittsburgh, the San Francisco Giants are in a tough spot. Plus, they haven't exactly been hot in September, going 4-6 in their past 10. That's why they've got the lowest odds heading into October.
On the other hand, the Giants have two big things going for them. The first is plenty of playoff experience, having won it all in 2010 and 2012. Even with leadoff man/spark plug Angel Pagan out for the year, if Buster Posey, Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval can rehash their heroics from postseasons past, another run could happen.
The second? Ace Madison Bumgarner (2.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.1 K/9) is set up for Wednesday's do-or-die contest, as Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle writes: "Regret is the worst companion to a team’s October demise, and the Giants wouldn’t want to look back wondering if they pitched the wrong guy. Go with your best. Figure out the next round when you get there."
(It should be noted, however, that the 25-year-old left-hander did have his worst start of 2014 against the Pirates on July 28).
Still, hanging on to that every-other-year trick may be perilous to hang one's hopes on when the rotation after Bumgarner is shaky. Jake Peavy has been hot (2.17 ERA since being acquired via trade) but owns a 9.27 ERA in five playoff starts, while fellow veteran right-handers Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Hudson, who sport ERAs of 4.20 and 4.73, respectively, over the second half, will need to get back on track.
If, that is, the Giants actually make it to the Division Series round for a matchup against the NL's top-seeded Washington Nationals.
Odds: 13-1
Kansas City Royals (89-73, 1st AL Wild Card)
2 of 10
Oh, hey there, Kansas City Royals, welcome back to October! It's been...a while, huh? We really hope you can stay a bit.
The Royals have a formula that can make that happen, what with a solid rotation, a dynamite bullpen featuring the three-armed monster of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and closer Greg Holland, and a defense that's as good as it gets.
But this club is going to have to use that to perfection, because the offense leaves a lot to be desired, particularly in the power department: The Royals are the only team in baseball that failed to reach 100 home runs.
In other words, K.C. is going to need to string multiple hits together to score enough runs to get past the Oakland Athletics in the Wild Card Game. And that will have to continue if the Royals advance, given how elite arms can shut down bigger bats than K.C.'s in the postseason.
Put simply: Everything is magnified in the playoffs, except the margin for error—and the Royals have one of the smallest of any team that's still playing.
Oh, and it doesn't help that James Shields, who goes by the nickname "Big Game James," actually has been more like "Medium Game" in October with a 4.98 ERA and 1.40 WHIP across six starts. He'll need to do better than that in Tuesday's wild-card showdown against the Octoberrific Jon Lester, especially at home.
After 29 years of mishaps and mistakes, it really would be a shame if Kansas City lasts only nine innings before bowing out. Besides, last time this team was here, in 1985, it won it all.
Odds: 12-1
Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74, 1st NL Wild Card)
3 of 10
The Pittsburgh Pirates don't seem to be getting much attention this year—there's no 20-season playoff drought this time around—but they should be taken very seriously, even as a wild-card entrant.
Not only is their .654 September winning percentage the third-best in baseball, but they also get to host the Giants in the Wild Card Game, which should give them an edge based on their 51 wins at home (tied for the most in the NL).
Beyond those factors, Pittsburgh is a deeper and more experienced club this year compared to the 2013 squad that won the Wild Card Game but felt more like a just-happy-to-be-here story than a legitimate contender.
Even without injured slugger Pedro Alvarez, potential two-time reigning NL MVP Andrew McCutchen (.314/.410/.542) has plenty of help in the lineup thanks to: the surprising Josh Harrison (.315 BA, 13 HR, 18 SB); red-hot left fielder Starling Marte (.975 second-half OPS); underrated backstop Russell Martin (.402 OBP); finally healthy second baseman Neil Walker (career-high 23 homers); and even capable shortstop Jordy Mercer (41 extra-base hits).
On the mound, Pittsburgh has a knack for getting the most out of its arms, whether it's Francisco Liriano (3.38 ERA, 9.7 K/9) or fellow reclamation project Edinson Volquez (3.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), and the bullpen's 3.28 ERA is the ninth-best mark in MLB.
After burning young stud Gerrit Cole on Sunday (7 IP, 1 ER, 12 K) in an attempt to catch the Cardinals and win the division, the Pirates will rely on the improved but often enigmatic Volquez in Wednesday's must-win contest, according to Doug Miller of MLB.com.
If the Pirates can coax the "good" Volquez to show up and help them advance beyond the Wild Card Game for a second straight year, they would pose a real threat to the Nationals in the NLDS.
Odds: 10-1
Oakland Athletics (88-74, 2nd AL Wild Card)
4 of 10
Well, that turned out to be a heck of a lot more challenging than anyone could have imagined when the Oakland Athletics still sported the best record in the majors merely two months ago. But stumbling to a 22-33 mark since Aug. 1 required them to win on the season's final day to punch their playoff ticket.
Injuries and ineffectiveness plagued the A's down the stretch, particularly on offense. Having ranked second in runs scored through mid-July, they tallied just the 13th-most runs over the second half. And while it wasn't the only reason for the drastic drop-off, the trade of cleanup hitter Yoenis Cespedes didn't help.
Then again, now that Oakland has managed to make it to October and avoid what might have gone down as the worst collapse in history, the club has the arms, both in the rotation and bullpen, to make some noise.
It all starts Tuesday against the Royals with lefty Jon Lester on the bump, according to John Hickey of the San Jose Mercury News. As battle-tested as they come, Lester, the two-time World Series champion with the Boston Red Sox, possesses a 2.11 career ERA in 76.2 October innings.
After that, the A's will get to run with right-handers Jeff Samardzija (2.99 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.3 K/9) and Sonny Gray (complete-game shutout to clinch Sunday), followed by left-hander Scott Kazmir (3.55 ERA, 1.16 WHIP). That's a four-deep rotation that stacks up with any in the AL, which is why this team, bad as it's played the past six weeks or so, has the best odds of all four wild cards.
So much of that, however, depends on whether the A's can get the job done in Kansas City in order to put their pitchers in position to try to shut down the Los Angeles Angels' explosive offense in a five-game series.
Odds: 10-1
St. Louis Cardinals (90-72, NL Central Champions)
5 of 10
Listing the defending NL champs here might seem low, but there are reasons to doubt that the St. Louis Cardinals can make it back to the World Series for a second straight season.
Like: How much can they really count on 2013 playoff hero Michael Wacha, who's been battling a shoulder injury the entire second half and hasn't thrown more than five innings in a start since June 17?
Like: Can their mediocre offense—which ranks 23rd in runs and second-to-last in homers—all of a sudden find another gear against the best pitchers October has to offer?
And like: Will the club's young core, namely first baseman Matt Adams, second baseman Kolten Wong and potential X-factor Oscar Taveras, be able to support playoff-proven vets Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta?
One answer St. Louis does have comes in the form of right-hander Adam Wainwright (2.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), who is as good as any pitcher going when he's on and owns a 2.53 ERA in 67.2 postseason innings. He'll go in Game 1 of the NLDS and will be backed up by the underrated Lance Lynn, who is coming off his best year yet (2.73 ERA).
The Cardinals aren't getting much hype, but they're fine letting their recent history of October success speak for itself.
Odds: 8-1
Los Angeles Angels (98-64, AL West Champions)
6 of 10
On one hand, the Los Angeles Angels have a lot going for them heading into their first postseason since 2009.
The club locked up the top spot in the AL, which means it holds home-field advantage for as long as it sticks around, up to and including the World Series. Plus, L.A.'s offense was the best in baseball, what with stars like AL MVP front-runner Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, as well as under-the-radar types like leadoff man Kole Calhoun.
On the other hand, L.A. has no idea what it will get from Josh Hamilton, who's been dealing with various ailments and has played just once since Sept. 4, or rookie righty Matt Shoemaker, who is currently fighting through a mild rib cage strain but looks healthy enough to go in the division series, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
Two players the Angels know they won't be getting anything from? Tyler Skaggs (Tommy John surgery) and Garrett Richards, who was a legitimate Cy Young candidate before his season ended after tearing up his knee in August.
That puts a heck of a lot on nominal ace Jered Weaver (3.59 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) and lefty C.J. Wilson, who walked an AL-high 85 batters on the year and has struggled to a 4.85 ERA and 1.67 WHIP post-break. The deep bullpen, including closer Huston Street (first 40-save season), has been tasked with picking up the slack for much of the past six weeks and will have to do so in October too if Los Angeles is to move on.
"We'll eventually settle on a rotation that can get us to our goal, but how it lines up, we don’t really know," manager Mike Scioscia said, via DiGiovanna. "There are too many variables to make those decisions."
Not exactly what you'd expect to hear heading into the postseason from the skipper of the team that finished with the best record in the sport. As great as the Angels have been and as productive as Trout and Co. are, the pitching is a big enough question mark to prevent them from being the favorite. Even in the AL.
Odds: 7-1
Baltimore Orioles (96-66, AL East Champions)
7 of 10
No Matt Wieters? No Manny Machado? No Chris Davis for at least the first round of the playoffs? No problem.
At least, that's how it's been for the Baltimore Orioles this year. Whether the O's, who were the only MLB team to reach 200 home runs and hit 25 more than any other club, can maintain this high-powered, homer-happy offense into the postseason is going to be a key factor.
Even sans some of their stars, the Orioles have gotten big knocks from stars like Adam Jones (29 homers) and Nelson Cruz (MLB-high 40 homers), who has proved to be one of the best sluggers in October history with 14 home runs in 34 games.
But lesser-knowns, like Steve Pearce (21 homers), have contributed too. That will have to continue, especially against the well-rounded Detroit Tigers in the division series.
The Orioles can't match the big-name arms the Tigers will throw at them, namely Max Scherzer, David Price and Justin Verlander. But Baltimore does have a solid group of No. 3 types, headed by Game 1 starter Chris Tillman, who posted a 2.33 second-half ERA. After that, there will be some mix of Miguel Gonzalez (3.23 ERA), Wei-Yin Chen (3.54) and/or Bud Norris (3.65).
Speaking of after, the O's have one of the best bullpens (3.10 ERA, sixth lowest in MLB) to help keep things close or polish off a win after their starters get through five or six frames. There are weapons from both the right (Darren O'Day, Tommy Hunter) and left (Andrew Miller, closer Zach Britton) sides. And the group will be that much better with rookie righty Kevin Gausman shifting from the five-man to the pen.
Given the Tigers' roster, playoff experience and 5-1 record against Baltimore this year, this is a tough draw for the host and second-seeded Orioles. But here's Manager of the Year fave Buck Showalter's plan: Keep the games close and ensure the series is decided in the late innings—Detroit's Achilles' heel.
Odds: 6-1
Los Angeles Dodgers (94-68, NL West Champions)
8 of 10
It's time to find out if the Los Angeles Dodgers' stars will shine when the lights are brightest.
That starts with Cy Young lock and MVP front-runner Clayton Kershaw, who completed a historic 2014 regular season with a 1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 10.8 strikeout-per-nine rate but now must put his so-so playoff resume on the line against the very St. Louis Cardinals club that handed him and the Dodgers an ugly 2013-ending loss in Game 6 of the NLCS.
Los Angeles will need Kershaw and right-hander Zack Greinke to be at their best in Games 1 and 2, because lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu has been dealing with shoulder soreness. He did have a positive throwing session Sunday and is expecting to pitch Game 3, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, but that's a lot to ask of someone who hasn't pitched in a game since throwing one inning Sept. 12.
The Dodgers offense, meanwhile, has really come on in the second half, scoring the second-most runs in the majors, thanks in large part to the steady Adrian Gonzalez (.314 BA, 13 HR, 56 RBI) and revitalized Matt Kemp (.309, 17, 54). Even utility man Justin Turner picked it up post-break, leading MLB with a .388 average.
If streaky stars Yasiel Puig and Hanley Ramirez, as well as speedster Dee Gordon (baseball-best 64 steals), can come up big in a few key spots, this lineup could be the NL's scariest and most dynamic.
Which leaves the one aspect that has been most shaky for the Dodgers: the bullpen. Outside of dominant closer Kenley Jansen (2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 13.9 K/9), the relievers have caused more than a few late-inning headaches, which shows in the unit's 3.80 ERA—22nd-worst in MLB.
After the team made it to the NLCS in 2013, a lot is expected of this big-money, big-name Dodgers squad, and L.A. will get a chance to silence critics right away if it can get through the reigning NL champs.
Odds: 5-1
Detroit Tigers (90-72, AL Central Champions)
9 of 10
It might be now or never for the Detroit Tigers. This is a team that has had as much success as any other in the sport in recent years, what with four straight division titles—a claim no other club can make. And yet, despite an unsuccessful trip to the World Series in 2012 sandwiched by two AL Championship Series disappointments, the Tigers have yet to go all the way.
The core of Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Victor Martinez remains intact—for now. The former two are on the wrong side of 30 and are showing some decline, while the latter pair are free agents at year's end.
Still, they've got loads of October experience and success under their belts, and they're backed up by others like streaky second baseman Ian Kinsler, ageless right fielder Torii Hunter and out-of-nowhere left fielder J.D. Martinez, who will need to continue to hit in his first postseason like he did from May through September (.315/.358/.553).
With Scherzer teamed with trade-deadline acquisition David Price, the Tigers might have the best righty-lefty duo in the AL, and Verlander and Rick Porcello provide quality depth. Remember, even if Verlander's 2014 was a disaster at times, he still sports a 3.28 ERA and 10.4 K/9 in 15 October starts and could be the X-factor against the Baltimore Orioles in the NLDS.
Similar to the Dodgers, Detroit's biggest problem is the pen. The relievers have an ugly 4.29 ERA, which is fourth-worst in MLB and easily the highest of any playoff participant. Considering the bullpen was the biggest culprit in last year's dramatic, heart-wrenching ALCS loss to the eventual champion Boston Red Sox, Detroit needs closer Joe Nathan and backup Joakim Soria—or perhaps bullpen-bound starter Anibal Sanchez—to get it together fast and prevent a repeat.
The ingredients are in place for this Tigers team to get back to the World Series again—and yes, even win it—but not much has to go wrong for that to be sabotaged.
Odds: 5-1
Washington Nationals (96-66, NL East Champions)
10 of 10
Folks, here's your presumptive World Series favorite as the playoffs get underway.
Heading into October, the Washington Nationals look as deep and as talented as any other club, and unlike many of their postseason peers, they're actually rather healthy too. Heck, even Ryan Zimmerman is back and ready to pitch in after spending two months on the disabled list with a severe hamstring strain.
Everything starts with the rotation, as either Stephen Strasburg or Jordan Zimmermann (who threw a no-hitter Sunday) could open Game 1 against the NL Wild Card winner Friday. Those two will be followed by some mix of Doug Fister (2.41 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), Tanner Roark (2.85, 1.09) and/or Gio Gonzalez (3.57, 1.20), who is the lone lefty of the bunch.
Manager Matt Williams hasn't yet decided his alignment, per Bill Ladson of MLB.com, and it might depend on which team the opponent winds up being.
The lineup is just as deep, what with leadoff man Denard Span (the NL hits leader) starting things off for down-ballot MVP candidate Anthony Rendon (.287/.351/.473 and the NL runs leader), Jayson Werth (.849 OPS), Adam LaRoche (team-highs of 26 homers and 92 RBI), Ian Desmond (third straight 20-20 campaign) and Bryce Harper (.283 average and 10 homers since Aug. 1).
Enough damage-doers for ya?
If there's one area that has become a bit of a question, it's—stop us if you've heard this before—the bullpen. Rafael Soriano's second-half struggles have him out as the closer, replaced by Drew Storen, who sports a 1.12 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and was 10-for-10 in saves in September—but who infamously blew the Nationals' chance to get to the NLCS in 2012.
That said, the talent and depth up and down this roster is incredible, and it showed over the second half, as Washington put together baseball's best record at 45-24 (.652) and clinched home field in the Senior Circuit.
Yes, the Nationals have arrived, and they're the October favorites to win the World Series as the postseason starts.
Odds: 4-1
Statistics are accurate through Sept. 28 and are courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
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