Ranking the Worst NBA Contracts Entering 2014-15 Season
There is a certain amount of luck in building an NBA champion, but the basic formula calls for two key ingredients: strong drafting and smart spending.
Few things can cripple a franchise quicker than overpaying an underperformer. It comes as little surprise that of the 10 players to crack this list, all but three suited up for non-playoff teams last season.
It isn't easy to win with blown money on the books, and these contracts are as bad as they come.
What makes one deal worse than the next? The eye test seems like a strong enough tool to answer that question, but we decided to dig a little deeper into the numbers. When performance doesn't match the price, that's when teams have a financial mess on their hands.
To determine these rankings, we have compared the salaries of the league's highest-paid players against their statistics. Three all-encompassing advanced stats—player efficiency rating, win shares and ESPN.com's real plus-minus—were added together, and that number was divided by a player's 2014-15 on-court earnings.
The end result is what we'll call each player's "salary rating," and these 10 players have the lowest* in the business.
*Players needed to "earn" their rankings inside the lines, so only those who played at least 41 games last season were considered. They also must put a heavy burden on their team's cap, which we'll define as at least a $9 million/year salary.
10. Gordon Hayward, SF, Utah Jazz
1 of 10
2014-15 Salary: $14,746,000
Salary Rating: 1.362
Admittedly, it isn't easy qualifying Gordon Hayward's deal as overpriced when he hasn't even started playing on it yet.
Still, he's nearly a $15-million-per-year player now, thanks to the Utah Jazz (with an assist from the Charlotte Hornets), and his resume simply doesn't justify that amount.
His field-goal percentage has dropped more than seven points over his four seasons in the league (41.3, down from 48.5 as a rookie). His usage percentage climbed to a career high in 2014-15 (23.1), but so did his turnover percentage (15.0). His offensive rating was a career-low 104, and his win shares per 48 minutes (.062) topped only what he put up in his rookie year (.048).
There is plenty to like about Hayward—versatility, basketball IQ, hustle—but not enough of it has translated to the stat sheet yet. He has plenty of time to go out and earn this money, but that task remains uncompleted for now.
"Nobody likes overpaying for what they buy. But that’s what the Jazz just did," wrote Gordon Monson of The Salt Lake Tribune. "They paid for a Maserati and got a Buick. A really nice Buick, but a Buick, nonetheless."
If there's a silver lining here, it's that Hayward's best days are likely in front of him. He is probably the only player on this list who can make such a claim.
9. Deron Williams, PG, Brooklyn Nets
2 of 10
2014-15 Salary: $19,754,465
Salary Rating: 1.326
In 2012, Deron Williams signed a five-year, $98 million pact with the Brooklyn Nets. Considering he was coming off a campaign in which he posted per-game marks of 21.0 points and 8.7 assists—a stat line no one produced last season—the rate actually seemed reasonable.
It's been a long time since anyone dubbed D-Will's deal that way, though.
Plagued by ankle problems he claims have now been solved by offseason surgery, per Newsday's Roderick Boone, Williams' numbers have been trapped in a two-year tailspin. In 2012-13, he managed 18.9 points and 7.7 assists. Last season, those figures dipped to 14.3 and 6.1, respectively, his lowest averages since his rookie year.
"Pushing 30, the grace period for Williams has ended," wrote Bleacher Report's Dan Favale. "Reality has set in, and it isn't pretty. It's weird, unforgiving and potentially inescapable. ... There's a new 'worst contract' in the NBA. It belongs to the fallen star that is Deron Williams."
This metric isn't quite as harsh to Williams, but it's hard to celebrate a supposed franchise face ranking anywhere on this list.
He used to be capable of challenging Chris Paul's point guard throne. Judging by last season's 17.6 PER, Williams now has to fight to keep himself above mediocrity.
8. Rudy Gay, SF, Sacramento Kings
3 of 10
2014-15 Salary: $19,317,326
Salary Rating: 1.275
Back in March, NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper reported that Rudy Gay was undecided on his $19.3 million player option for this season.
The scoring forward eventually decided to exercise that option, and it isn't hard to figure out why. He is a nice piece, but NBA teams don't—or shouldn't, at least—put up this type of money for "nice."
"Rudy Gay, the player, has been traded two times in the last year. But it’s perhaps more accurate to say that Rudy Gay, the contract, has been off-loaded twice," Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry wrote in January. "Within the cap-obsessed NBA, Gay has been promoted to the level of his incompetence."
Gay's contract has made it difficult for some to realize the type of talent he has. He's an 18.2 points-per-game scorer for his career, and he shot better than 48 percent from the field in 55 games for the Sacramento Kings last season.
Still, that doesn't change the fact that this deal is far too rich for what he brings inside the lines. Another strong season in Sacramento could net him another lucrative contract, but he won't be flirting with a near $20 million salary again.
7. Josh Smith, SF, Detroit Pistons
4 of 10
2014-15 Salary: $13,500,000
Salary Rating: 1.230
For two-way forward Josh Smith, his biggest problem isn't what he's paid, but rather which team is paying him. The supersized Detroit Pistons, already anchored on the interior by Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe, need Smith to stay on the perimeter—his least efficient area on the floor.
Before last season, Smith hadn't spent more time at the 3 than the 4 since the 2006-07 campaign. He also had never attempted as many triples as the 265 he launched last year, shots he converted at just a 26.4 percent clip.
The Pistons asked him to fill a role that history said he couldn't. History wasn't wrong. His PER dipped below the league-average mark of 15.0 for the first time in his career (14.1), and his field-goal percentage plummeted to a career-worst 41.9.
Detroit wound up shopping Smith at the trade deadline, per Grantland's Zach Lowe, just seven months after the franchise gave him a four-year, $54 million deal. Needless to say, the Pistons couldn't find any takers.
Smith told Pistons.com's Keith Langlois he is "going to play a lot of (power forward)" this season, though team president-coach Stan Van Gundy might have a hard time finding him minutes there with Monroe and Drummond still on board.
If Smith's role doesn't change in a major way, the perceived value of his contract isn't likely to, either.
6. Gerald Wallace, SF, Boston Celtics
5 of 10
2014-15 Salary: $10,105,855
Salary Rating: 1.155
If there's anything surprising about Boston Celtics forward Gerald Wallace appearing on this list, it's the fact his deal didn't rank any higher. He played just 24.4 minutes a night last season and made the 25-win Celtics worse when he was on the floor (minus-6.2 points per 100 possessions) than when he was sitting (minus-5.1).
Throw in his 5.1 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists, and somehow that adds up to a $10-million-per-year player.
"There are bigger contracts. There are longer contracts. There are less productive players," wrote Bleacher Report's D.J. Foster. "But there is no one in the league on a bigger, longer contract who is less productive than Wallace."
Wallace has an unsightly 10.9 PER to show for the last two seasons, and his last—and only—All-Star appearance came in 2010. The 32-year-old might be capable of filling a part-time role for a contender, but that doesn't help his rebuilding franchise.
And it certainly doesn't warrant a salary like this, which will be on the books again next season before mercifully expiring in 2016.
5. Andrea Bargnani, PF, New York Knicks
6 of 10
2014-15 Salary: $11,500,000
Salary Rating: 1.005
While free-falling to a dismal 37-45 record last season, the New York Knicks posted a minus-1.0 net efficiency rating, which ranked 19th in the league. During former No. 1 pick Andrea Bargnani's 1,257 minutes of work, that number dropped to minus-6.2, which would have made New York's ranking slip to 27th.
Hope, however, isn't lost for Bargnani, if you're buying what Knicks team president Phil Jackson is selling.
"He's overlooked," Jackson said on MSG Network, via Peter Botte of the New York Daily News. "We think he's going to really do well in the system we have."
Of course, Botte also noted that Jackson was "unable to move" Bargnani over the summer, so the Zen Master's words might best be served with a heavy dose of salt.
Bargnani embarrassed the Knicks—employers of one J.R. Smith—with his decision-making and shot selection. That isn't easy to do.
The 7-footer also managed just 6.4 rebounds per 36 minutes, which actually topped his previous personal best. His 14.5 PER marked the fifth time in his eight-year career that he failed to reach the league-average benchmark.
If there's any good news to be gleaned from all this, it's that Bargs' contract expires at season's end.
4. Joe Johnson, SG, Brooklyn Nets
7 of 10
2014-15 Salary: $23,180,790
Salary Rating: 0.999
A lot of bad NBA contracts only look that way in retrospect. Joe Johnson's mega six-year, $119 million deal he signed in 2010 appeared doomed from the beginning.
And that's putting it lightly.
"It's never a good sign when, a full week before a player is set to put pen to paper to ink his most recent contract, that a good portion of the NBA community regards that contract as the worst it has ever seen," Yahoo Sports' Kelly Dwyer wrote that summer. "We're feeling this way, right now. ... Worst contract, ever."
So what has Johnson done since?
He has seen his scoring drop in each of the last two seasons. His PER has floated right around mediocre, a subpar 14.1 in 2012-13 and a slightly above-average 15.5 last year. He has contributed a total of 16.4 win shares over the last three years, fewer than Kevin Durant (19.2) posted last season alone.
Johnson is a good player, cool in the clutch and steady from the outside (40.1 percent three-point shooting in 2013-14). The problem is he's paid like an elite one. Only Kobe Bryant and Amar'e Stoudemire will cash bigger checks than Johnson's this season, via ESPN.com.
Johnson's deal seemed troubling at the start, and it has only grown worse with time.
3. Eric Gordon, SG, New Orleans Pelicans
8 of 10
2014-15 Salary: $14,898,938
Salary Rating: 0.973
The New Orleans Pelicans tried to make Eric Gordon their franchise face.
The scoring guard headlined the organization's return package in the 2011 trade that sent Chris Paul to the Los Angeles Clippers. New Orleans doubled down on Gordon's future by matching the four-year, $58 million offer sheet he signed with the Phoenix Suns in 2012, despite his public pleas to get to the desert.
Gordon has played a total of 115 games for the Pelicans since they acquired him. Even when he's been on the court, he hasn't been the player New Orleans thought it was getting.
"The Eric Gordon of old is likely no more," wrote Bourbon Street Shots' Joe Gerrity," and the Eric Gordon of new is hardly worth a fifth of his current salary."
The Pelicans though they had a star in Gordon, but he has played more like a complementary piece. His salary suggests he should be so much more than that, and the statistics say he's even failing that role. The Pelicans were 7.7 points per 100 possessions better without him on the floor last season.
Maybe it's time to start hoping for something better from him, but that won't be easy to do until his contract gets wiped off the books.
2. Amar'e Stoudemire, PF, New York Knicks
9 of 10
2014-15 Salary: $23,410,988
Salary Rating: 0.734
Amar'e Stoudemire averaged 11.9 points a night last season. Take a look at his income, and try to figure out how those numbers mesh.
Medical students could pass their exams just by studying Stoudemire's lengthy injury history. The New York Knicks have tried combating his health problems by holding him to fewer than 24 minutes a night the past two seasons, but nothing can reverse the damage done to the team's salary cap.
"That's a huge chunk of salary that's preventing New York from rebuilding quickly through signing star-level free agents," wrote NBC Sports' Brett Pollakoff.
To Stoudemire's credit, he has found ways to remain effective offensively despite his lost athleticism. The big man has shot 55.7 percent or better from the field each of the last two seasons and averaged 19.9 points per 36 minutes over that stretch.
But his offensive impact is limited by his health, and he is a turnstile at the opposite end. Opposing centers posted an 18.6 PER against him last season, via 82games.com, and his individual defensive efficiency mark of 0.93 points allowed per possession ranked 319th in the league, per Synergy Sports (subscription required).
This is the final year of his deal, but it might feel like an eternity given what he makes.
1. Kendrick Perkins, C, Oklahoma City Thunder
10 of 10
2014-15 Salary: $9,404,342
Salary Rating: 0.289
It's nearly impossible to do what Oklahoma City Thunder center Kendrick Perkins has done here. This metric is designed in a way that punishes players for the more money they make.
Perkins has the smallest contract on this list, yet it's still the worst—and it's not even close.
His 2013-14 season was historically bad. He joined Michael Curry and Jason Collins as the only players since 1980-81 to have a PER below seven (6.3) while starting at least 60 games and averaging at least 19 minutes. If that stat makes you want to cast another MVP ballot for Kevin Durant, you are not alone.
Perkins hasn't shot above 46 percent from the field in two seasons, which is really an egregious number considering 41.7 percent of his shots over that time have come from within three feet of the basket. His 14.2 rebounding percentage last season ranked 25th out of the 33 centers that played at least 500 minutes last year.
He defends the post well and adds an element of toughness to the Thunder. How exactly does that equate to a near eight-figure salary?
It doesn't.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via ShamSports.com.
