Each Conference's Most Over-, Underachieving Teams Through Week 4
As college football rounds the quarter pole and finishes up the first month of the 2014 season, trends have emerged. In the buildup to this season, college gridiron pundits made plenty of predictions, both big and small.
With virtually every team having played at least three games (and most teams four), we’re able to make better judgments about teams, seeing where we were right and wrong.
In every league, there are teams that are outperforming expectations, while others just aren’t living up to the hype surrounding them in August.
Here’s a look at teams in each college football league that are over-performing or underachieving. Teams were picked after taking a look at their results and their opponents, as well as the relative expectations with which they entered the season.
American Athletic Conference
1 of 10
Overachiever: East Carolina
Ruffin McNeil’s Pirates were expected to be among the AAC’s best programs, but few could have imagined the success they enjoyed in this first month of the season.
ECU is 3-1 and has cracked both Top 25 polls, and with good reason. ECU’s only loss was a hard-fought 33-23 decision at South Carolina, and they own back-to-back wins over ACC teams, winning at Virginia Tech and absolutely embarrassing in-state foe North Carolina in a 70-41 rout.
Senior quarterback Shane Carden has already thrown for 1,469 yards with 11 touchdowns against three interceptions. He has an unreal 865 yards passing over his last two games, and ECU ranks sixth nationally in passing yards per game. The Pirates look like the class of the AAC and could have a shot at the Group of 5 BCS bid if they keep this up.
Underachiever: Houston
Coming off an 8-5 season with 15 starters returning (led by sophomore quarterback John O’Korn and junior wideout Deontay Greenberry), big things were expected as Houston opened its new stadium. But the Cougars laid a major egg in dropping their home opener to UT-San Antonio 27-7 and will enter league play 2-2.
Houston and coach Tony Levine can still salvage a bowl bid, but more was expected this season, and the Cougars have ceded the league spotlight to East Carolina. This wasn’t how they expected to start the season.
ACC
2 of 10
Overachiever: Georgia Tech
Entering this season, there were reasons for concern on The Flats. Following a 2010 ACC title (later vacated due to NCAA sanctions), Georgia Tech had fallen into mediocrity. Over the next four seasons, Tech was 28-25, 19-16 in ACC play, and coach Paul Johnson was forced to refute rumors last winter that he wanted to be bought out by school officials.
Four games into the 2014 season, the Yellow Jackets are riding high at 4-0. Sure, the first three weeks featured wins over Wofford, Tulane and a narrow, last-second 42-38 win over Georgia Southern, but Tech showed its mettle with a 27-24 comeback win at Virginia Tech, kicking a last-second field goal for the victory.
New starting quarterback Justin Thomas has completed only 49.2 percent of his passes but has thrown seven touchdowns against one interception and leads Tech with 443 rushing yards.
The schedule gets tougher from here (home games against Miami and Duke are followed by a two-game road trip to North Carolina and Pitt), but Tech looks like a sure bet to surpass 2013’s seven-win campaign.
Underachiever: North Carolina
The Tar Heels hoped to build on their strong finish to 2013, which saw them win six of their final seven games to salvage a 7-6 record. That hasn’t happened this fall. At all.
Larry Fedora’s group needed a late score to survive San Diego State at home and followed that up two weeks later with an embarrassing 70-41 loss at East Carolina. It was the most points and yards (789) ever allowed in a single game by a Tar Heels defense. North Carolina is allowing 42 points per game, No. 121 nationally.
And the road gets no easier, either. This weekend, UNC goes to an angry Clemson team looking to shake off the sting of an overtime loss at No. 1 Florida State, followed by games against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. When does basketball season start again?
Big Ten
3 of 10
Overachiever: Maryland
Jim Delany’s move to add Maryland and Rutgers to the Big Ten was considered little more than a land grab to add eyeballs and TV sets. It’s very early, but the Terrapins are holding their own at 3-1.
The Terps’ only loss came in a wild 40-37 defeat to West Virginia, although they face an interesting Big Ten debut this week at Indiana (coming off a 31-27 upset of then-No. 18 Missouri).
Maryland marched right back into the ACC last week with a 34-20 win over Syracuse, and senior quarterback C.J. Brown (833 yards passing, 244 yards rushing, 12 combined touchdowns) is a dangerous dual threat. At the very least, the Terrapins look like a bowl team for the second consecutive season.
Underachiever: Michigan
If Brady Hoke’s seat wasn’t hot entering this season, it’s certainly scalding now.
Hoke fired offensive coordinator Al Borges and replaced him with Alabama OC Doug Nussmeier, who touted a more balanced system. Four games in, the offense (and the Wolverines) aren’t going anywhere.
Michigan was blanked 31-0 by Notre Dame in the rivals’ last game for the foreseeable future, and Utah added to the misery with a 26-10 Big House rout, leaving UM 2-2 entering Big Ten play. The Detroit News' Terry Foster says the Michigan job is too big for Hoke.
Senior quarterback Devin Gardner’s starting job is in jeopardy, as he has thrown five touchdowns against six interceptions. MLive.com's Nick Baumgardner says Hoke will decide between Gardner or sophomore backup Shane Morris later this week.
Michigan is averaging just 24 points per game, No. 94 nationally. That’ll have to improve in a hurry if Hoke and Co. hope to salvage anything from this season.
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Big 12
4 of 10
Overachiever: West Virginia
It sounds funny to call a 2-2 team “overachieving,” but West Virginia has been just that through four games.
Dana Holgorsen entered 2014 under serious pressure following a disappointing 4-8 season last fall but has restored some buzz around the Mountaineers’ program so far. WVU’s only losses have come to Top 5 teams Alabama and Oklahoma, and the ‘Neers pushed both teams in the second half. "We have to play like that all the time," Holgorsen told reporters.
Senior quarterback Clint Trickett has already thrown for 1,600 yards with nine touchdowns against three interceptions, leading a potent offense. Both Baylor and Kansas State come to Morgantown, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see WVU pull off an upset or two the rest of the way.
Underachiever: Texas
It’s way too early to pass judgment on the Charlie Strong era at Texas, but it hasn’t gone the way he hoped. Strong has dismissed nine players from the Longhorns roster, suggesting it was in turmoil before his arrival, and quarterback David Ash was forced to give up football after suffering another concussion (he missed much of last season with concussion symptoms).
BYU dealt Texas a mind-numbing 41-7 defeat, and while Strong’s players remain optimistic, it looks like a long season lies ahead in Austin. The departures could prove addition by subtraction, but either way, the product Texas will put on the field this fall won’t be particularly fun to watch.
Conference USA
5 of 10
Overachiever: Old Dominion
Entering their first season in the revamped Conference USA, Old Dominion was something of an unknown quantity. Bet their new league-mates know the Monarchs now.
Following last week’s 45-42 shootout win over Rice, ODU is 3-1, with the only loss a competitive 46-34 defeat at NC State.
Senior quarterback Taylor Heinicke already has a Walter Payton Award (the FCS equivalent of the Heisman Trophy) in his possession and is making a strong impression in FBS as well. He has 1,172 yards passing with 10 touchdowns against four interceptions, completing 66.7 percent of his passes. Last week, he threw for 430 yards against Rice.
The Monarchs could make a bowl in their first season in C-USA, which would be an impressive feat.
Underachiever: Rice
The Owls won 10 games and the Conference USA title and hoped to build off that this fall, but at 0-3 they’re already one defeat from matching their loss total from last season. Rice returned 13 starters from that team and certainly didn’t expect to be 0-3 in late September.
The schedule has been brutal: a 48-17 loss at Notre Dame followed by a 38-10 loss at Texas A&M. But last week’s 45-42 loss to Old Dominion was surely disappointing, making this week’s trip to Southern Miss a must-win.
Rice can still win C-USA, but this isn’t the way the Owls wanted to start their title defense.
MAC
6 of 10
Overachiever: Western Michigan
Coming off a 1-11 season, there was nowhere to go but up for P.J. Fleck and Western Michigan. And the Broncos are certainly on the upswing. Western Michigan (2-1) has already doubled last season’s win total with wins over Idaho and FCS foe Murray State and was competitive in a 43-34 loss at Purdue.
The Broncs average 41.3 points per game and churn out 277.7 yards per game on the ground, which ranks No. 17 nationally. Freshman tailback Jarvion Franklin has already rushed for 542 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 6.6 yards per carry.
The MAC slate will test WMU, but good things are happening in Kalamazoo.
Underachiever: Ball State
With 11 starters returning from last season’s 10-3 team (but not including graduated starting quarterback Keith Wenning), it wouldn’t have been totally shocking to see Ball State and Pete Lembo take a step back. But this is a bit surprising.
The Cardinals are 1-3, with their only win coming over FCS foe Colgate. A 17-13 loss at Iowa (which they led until the final moments of the fourth quarter) is understandable, but a 27-20 loss to FCS team Indiana State is head-shaking. And they have an early hole to dig out of after a MAC opener loss to Toledo.
Ball State has simply struggled to score points, averaging 21.5 points per game, No. 102 nationally.
Mountain West
7 of 10
Overachiever: Wyoming
Craig Bohl has a reputation for getting the most out of his players after winning three consecutive FCS championships at North Dakota State. He has certainly done that in four games at Wyoming, leading the Cowboys to a 3-1 start.
Much like at NDSU, Wyoming plays tough, aggressive defense, allowing an average of 14.7 points in its victories.
The Cowboys’ only loss came in a 48-14 defeat at No. 2 Oregon, and while they’ll likely be overmatched this week at No. 9 Michigan State, the early success shows that Bohl’s rebuild might move faster than most in the Mountain West expected.
Underachiever: Fresno State
Coming off an 11-2 season, Fresno State was still expected to compete near the top of the Mountain West, but this has been an ugly start. Two-time Mountain West Player of the Year Derek Carr is gone, but the Bulldogs did return 13 starters.
Four games in, they’ve seriously regressed.
The opening month hasn’t been easy with games against Southern California and Nebraska, but the defense hasn’t stopped anyone, giving up 50-plus points in each of the first three games and allowing 45.5 points per game overall, No. 125 nationally. That’s disappointing, given that the defense returned eight starters.
Meanwhile, neither Duke transfer Brandon Connette nor junior Brian Burrell has locked down the starting quarterback job, leaving significant uncertainty as the Mountain West season begins.
Pac-12
8 of 10
Overachiever: Arizona
It was hard to know what to expect from Arizona this fall. The Wildcats were coming off an 8-5 season, but starting a freshman quarterback in redshirt Anu Solomon and a freshman tailback in Nick Wilson, replacing All-American Ka’Deem Carey.
So far? Youth has been served. Arizona is 4-0 with a potent offense led by the talented freshmen. Solomon has thrown for 1,454 yards with 13 touchdowns against three interceptions, and Wilson has 482 yards with five touchdowns.
Don’t count Arizona out of any game: The Wildcats scored 36 fourth-quarter points against Cal, including Solomon’s Hail Mary touchdown pass on the final play of the game, for a wild 49-45 win. Arizona has three wins by a touchdown or less, although it will need polish for further Pac-12 success.
Underachiever: UCLA
The Bruins are 3-0 and ranked No. 11 nationally entering Thursday night’s visit to No. 15 Arizona State, but Jim Mora Jr.’s team has been unimpressive. They needed three defensive touchdowns to pull out a 28-20 win at Virginia, edged AAC foe Memphis 42-35 and needed a late score to beat Texas 20-17.
Heisman Trophy candidate Brett Hundley has struggled to find open space behind an offensive line that has struggled and is questionable for this week with an elbow injury.
The Bruins were dark-horse College Football Playoff contenders entering this season, but they’ll have to raise their level of play to make a charge toward the Playoff.
SEC
9 of 10
Overachiever: Texas A&M
It was reasonable to wonder how Texas A&M would replace Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Johnny Manziel, but so far A&M has answered that question affirmatively in the person of sophomore Kenny Hill.
Hill’s starting debut was masterful, as he broke the school’s single-game passing record in a 52-28 rout of South Carolina. He has thrown for 1,359 yards with 13 touchdowns against one interception, throwing to a bevy of talented receivers like senior Malcome Kennedy and freshmen Ricky Seals-Jones and Speedy Noil.
Meanwhile, A&M’s defense has also taken a step forward thanks to players with another year’s experience and the presence of freshman defensive end Myles Garrett, who leads the SEC in sacks.
The Aggies’ October won’t be easy, featuring a three-game stretch at Mississippi State, home vs. Ole Miss and at Alabama. Hill made a great first impression. They’ve shown they’re more than just Johnny Football’s team.
Underachiever: Vanderbilt
Under James Franklin, long-suffering Vanderbilt fans might have gotten a bit spoiled with three consecutive nine-win seasons that ended with bowl victories. Still, they’ve experienced quite the comedown following Franklin’s departure to Penn State and the arrival of former Stanford defensive coordinator Derek Mason.
Vandy is 1-3 and has looked positively awful, with its only win a 34-31 victory over MAC dregs UMass—and the Commodores needed a fourth-quarter rally for that win. The Commodores are yielding 39.3 points per game, No. 115 nationally, and Mason has used three starting quarterbacks (Stephen Rivers, Patton Robinette, Wade Freebeck).
The nine-game win streak is over, and Mason will be lucky to make a bowl in his first season in Nashville.
Sun Belt
10 of 10
Overachiever: New Mexico State
Little was expected of New Mexico State in its inaugural Sun Belt season. The Aggies were 2-10 in 2013, and they’re a very young team.
So far, so good. Coach Doug Martin’s team has already matched its win total from a year ago and won its Sun Belt debut, edging Georgia State 34-31. They were also competitive with in-state rival New Mexico, falling 38-35.
It’s unclear whether NMSU has enough to make a run at the postseason, but the Aggies have very clearly improved this fall.
Underachiever: Troy
What has happened to Troy? Once one of the Sun Belt’s best programs, the Trojans have taken a major turn for the worse. Troy hoped to build on a 6-6 season with 11 starters returning, but it looks like veteran coach Larry Blakeney will have his fourth consecutive non-winning season.
Troy is being outscored by an average of 46.5-15.5, which is a recipe for disaster no matter how you slice it. The road will get easier than last week’s 66-0 loss to Georgia, but a loss to lowly Abilene Christian shows just how far this program must travel to get back in the Sun Belt’s upper echelon.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
