Doug Martin's Fantasy Expectations Must Be Tempered in Week 4 vs. Steelers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin has had quite a fall from grace since his impressive 1,454-yard, 11-touchdown 2012 rookie season.

In 2013, the ball-carrier averaged a lackluster 3.6 yards per carry before a shoulder injury ended his season. Many fantasy owners expected him to bounce back in 2014. However, a knee injury suffered in Week 1 put that on hold.

After missed games in Weeks 2 and 3, Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports reports Martin is finally expected to return to action in Week 4 against the Pittsburgh Steelers:

While that's certainly good news, his fantasy expectations must be tempered for multiple reasons.

Before Martin went down with an injury in 2013, he didn't look close to his previous form. For comparison's sake, the ball-carrier racked up 1,005 yards after contact, breaking 53 tackles on 319 carries in 2012.

Rushing 127 times in 2013, he only gained 274 yards after contact and broke 11 tackles. That was a big reason for the drop in his Pro Football Focus (subscription required) efficiency ranking from eighth in 2012 to 53rd in 2013.

In fact, Rotoworld's Ryan McDowell tweeted a staggering statistic regarding how just one of Martin's performances affected his career numbers:

That's not exactly the definition of consistency.

Martin's 2014 season hasn't exactly been comforting to this point. Before his knee injury, he carried nine times for just nine yards in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers—a team currently ranked 27th in the league against the run.

With Martin out of commission for a couple of weeks, backup running back Bobby Rainey was given a chance to shine.

In Week 2, Rainey absolutely went off against the St. Louis Rams, rushing 22 times for 144 yards while adding three receptions for 30 yards. He accumulated a total of 105 yards of offense in Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons, and if it weren't for Rainey's two fumbles, Martin may have been hard-pressed to get his job back.

ESPN's Christopher Harris comically commented on Rainey's two-fumble performance in Week 3:

Still, Rainey was impressive enough to at least warrant a timeshare in the backfield alongside Martin going forward. Expecting to see more carries, Rainey spoke of his ball-security issues during an interview with Pat Yasinskas of ESPN.com:

"

It won't happen again. ...

It's something that I can't do, period. I've got to take care of the ball. I will do that starting off today and here on out. I will take care of the ball. The team doesn't have to worry about me losing the ball again. What I get paid to do is protect the ball and that's what I'll do.

"

So, Martin hasn't looked good since the 2012 season and now Rainey may be in line to get some additional touches? What else could possibly go against Martin in Week 4?

That would be his matchup against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh had a couple of rough weeks to begin the season, allowing opposing running backs to run rampant. However, the team really began to get it together on the defensive side of the ball in Week 3 against the Panthers, allowing a total of just 42 yards on the ground.

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

The Steelers have been getting consistently better against opposing running backs each week.

According to ESPN.com, the team has decreased its fantasy points given up to ball-carriers each week, giving up 29 to the Cleveland Browns in Week 1, 15 to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 and just six to the Panthers in Week 3.

This Pittsburgh defense is becoming a formidable opponent for any running back—especially one in a timeshare—and under the guidance of defensive guru Dick LeBeau, that will continue to hold true despite the likely absence of linebackers Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones on Thursday.

Perhaps Martin's one saving grace in Week 4 is the return of quarterback Mike Glennon as the team's starter following Josh McCown's thumb injury.

Glennon was far superior to McCown against the Falcons, moving the offense with much greater efficiency. Here's a look at the quarterbacks' numbers:

Player	C/Att	Yds	TDs	INTs	Rating
Josh McCown	5/12	58	0	1	22.2
Mike Glennon	17/24	121	1	0	96.0

With a slightly more viable passing attack, Tampa Bay's offense should be balanced, keeping Pittsburgh from stacking the box against the run for a full 60 minutes. That could, at the very least, give Martin the opportunity to break loose once or twice—but don't hold your breath.

Until Martin proves he can return to anything close to his 2012 form, he can't be considered more than a low-end RB2 or flex option.

If you're in a pinch, put him in the lineup and see what he can do. Just be sure to keep your expectations tempered.