College Football Rankings 2014: Official Week 5 Polls and Playoff Projections
Just when you think college football is going to settle into a short lull, something like last week happens that forces us to rethink where everything is headed. The top of the rankings didn't change, but virtually all of the top teams showed major flaws that open up the playoff spots.
The most shocking thing that happened in Week 4, at least with real playoff implications, was LSU losing at home to Mississippi State in a thrilling game that nearly featured a miracle comeback by the Tigers. Les Miles' group went from eighth in both major polls to just inside the top 20.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
That was hardly the only game to shake up the polls, so we are going to examine where things stand and what it means for the College Football Playoff.
| USA Today Top 25 (1st Place Votes) | Pos. | AP Top 25 (1st Place Votes) |
| Florida State (36) | 1 | Florida State (34) |
| Alabama (11) | 2 | Oregon (12) |
| Oklahoma (12) | 3 | Alabama (6) |
| Oregon (3) | 4 | Oklahoma (4) |
| Auburn | 5 | Auburn |
| Baylor | 6 | Texas A&M (4) |
| Texas A&M | 7 | Baylor |
| Notre Dame | 8 | Notre Dame |
| Michigan State | 9 | Michigan State |
| UCLA | 10 | Mississippi |
| Mississippi | 11 | UCLA |
| Arizona State | 12 | Georgia |
| Georgia | 13 | South Carolina |
| Stanford | 14 | Mississippi State |
| South Carolina | 15 | Arizona State |
| Mississippi State | 16 | Stanford |
| Wisconsin | 17 | LSU |
| LSU | 18 | USC |
| Nebraska | 19 | Wisconsin |
| Ohio State | 20 | BYU |
| BYU | 21 | Nebraska |
| USC | 22 | Ohio State |
| Duke | 23 | East Carolina |
| East Carolina | 24 | Oklahoma State |
| Kansas State | 25 | Kansas State |
College Football Playoff Projections
| Pos. | Team (Projected Record) |
| 1 | Florida State Seminoles |
| 2 | Oregon Ducks |
| 3 | Texas A&M Aggies |
| 4 | Michigan State Spartans |
Looking at my playoff projections, the only shocking thing in the group is that Michigan State moves back into the top four after losing at Oregon. Things certainly looked grim for the Spartans after that loss, but a couple things have happened since that make their outlook brighter.
First, because of upsets and other teams not playing well ahead of them, the Spartans have already moved back into the top 10, the only one-loss team able to make that claim. Even though everyone wants to dismiss Mark Dantonio's team because of the loss, let's not sell low on this club just yet.
ESPN's Mel Kiper (Insider subscription required) commented on Michigan State's stock in a piece about the nation's most underrated teams, which will also lead into my second point:
"We all know the Big Ten is down, and if the Spartans get wins over Ohio State (already has a loss to Virginia Tech) and Michigan (welp) and perhaps even in the Big Ten championship, you can just see the narrative: "Nice work, but beating Oregon was your chance, and you missed it." Except for this: First, Michigan State played Oregon really well and the margin in that game is inflated compared to how the game was played. Second, which team from any conference is going to go to Autzen Stadium as a clear favorite over the Ducks? That team just doesn't exist right now. None of the top teams in the country are without flaws. Florida State was in survival mode this weekend, Alabama's defense is definitely a concern for the Tide coaches.
"
No one likes the Big Ten because it's not sexy football to watch, nor is it often good, but the best thing that happened to anyone in the conference, including and especially Michigan State, was Indiana going on the road and beating Missouri (an SEC team) last weekend.
Now, everyone in the conference that is able to get a win over the Hoosiers—the Spartans play them on October 18—doesn't have to hear about how it was a pointless victory. If that's the case, then nothing Missouri does the rest of the year matters.
The Spartans are an excellent football team that hung with Oregon for 45 minutes in a true road game against a team currently ranked higher than anyone on the schedule for Oklahoma, Auburn, Alabama and Florida State.
Speaking of the Seminoles, they get in basically by default because even though no one wants to talk about it like they do with the Big Ten, the ACC is terrible. After holding off Clemson without Jameis Winston, the only test before the conference title game is an October 18 home game against Notre Dame.
While the Fighting Irish have won all three of their games, I'm not going to declare them a top team yet because their three wins are against teams who have combined for four wins against Appalachian State, Miami (Ohio), Western Michigan and Southern Illinois.
That's the only game against a team currently ranked remaining on Florida State's schedule.
Oregon seemed like as safe a bet as any team through three games, then it nearly lost on the road to Washington State. The Ducks' biggest flaw was exposed in that game, as Marcus Mariota was sacked seven times.
Heather Dinich of ESPN noted that it was just a lot of simple mistakes against the Cougars that added up to big problems for the Ducks:
"Back-to-back holding calls negated runs of 15 and 54 yards. There were three false starts, and the Ducks couldn't get a first down on third-and-one. Oregon is supposed to get that in its sleep. Injuries to three linemen have taken their toll. Jake Fisher's possible return against Arizona could help, but if the Ducks are going to stay in the top four, they've got to get better production from their rookie tackles up front.
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Oregon's game at UCLA doesn't look nearly as dangerous now given how the Bruins have struggled thus far, but the November 1 clash against Stanford will determine how far the Ducks go. Last year, the Cardinal held the ball for more than 42 minutes to end Oregon's unbeaten season.
If the Ducks are able to get by Stanford at Autzen Stadium, their path to the College Football Playoff is clear with no other ranked teams on the schedule. Utah and Oregon State are currently undefeated, but neither of those teams has really been tested yet.
The No. 3 seed in this four-team projection is purely a guess based on the assumption that an SEC team is going to make the field. The main choices come down to Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M. I'm not buying Mississippi as a top-10 team, regardless of its ranking, but if someone wants to say otherwise, it can't be disputed...yet.
There's going to be one SEC team—likely in the West because that's where all the good teams are (Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Auburn, Texas A&M)—that finishes the season with just one loss. Considering the schedules those teams play, whichever one it is will have earned its spot in the College Football Playoff.
Alabama and Mississippi will play on October 4. The Crimson Tide follow that with a home game against Texas A&M on October 18, back-to-back games against LSU and Mississippi State on November 8 and 15 and finish with Auburn on November 29.
Texas A&M also has games against Mississippi, Mississippi State, Auburn and LSU. Auburn's schedule is impossible with virtually no letup when October begins, with games against LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Mississippi, Texas A&M and Georgia. The only respite is a glorified scrimmage against Samford on November 22 that comes the week after going to Athens and the week before going to Tuscaloosa.
Edward Aschoff of ESPN makes the case for two SEC teams making the playoffs that certainly wouldn't be out of line:
"The FPI (Football Power Index) measures team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. Its top four teams are in the SEC: Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn and Georgia. ...
Strength of schedule isn't going to be a problem for the West champ. For as tough as the West is, don't rule out an undefeated run or a one-loss run. We've seen it before ...
"
Let's just say an undefeated Alabama beats an undefeated Texas A&M close at home on Oct. 18. Alabama runs the table and wins the SEC. A&M runs the table afterward and sits in the top 10. Chances are that if A&M has just one loss, it has won some pretty good games, so you're looking at a potential top-five finish.
No one would be surprised or up in arms if two SEC teams got into the College Football Playoff. Well, fans outside of SEC country who are tired of hearing how great that conference is might gripe, but everyone else understands the caliber of competition is different there than any other conference in the country.
In this particular scenario, where this is merely a projection of how things stack up right now, only one SEC team makes it in. The top two teams in the playoff aren't going to surprise anyone, but wanting to think outside the box, Michigan State seems like the best team that can crash the party.
There are going to be great cases for teams as we move deeper into the season. For now, with less than a handful of games and some of those against lackluster competition, this is how the season is likely to play out.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
