Most Important Stat for Each Top 10 Team so Far
Is any number more significant than the final score?
Though the key to building a successful season is actually winning games, identifying the driving force behind victories is critical in predicting continued success.
Whether it’s rushing yards, turnover margin, sacking the quarterback or defending the pass, every great team is great at something specific.
It’s why Florida State’s No. 18-ranked rushing defense mattered last season, a unit that gave up only 124.7 yards per game.
Even though the ‘Noles coughed up 232 ground yards to No. 2 Auburn in the BCS title game, it was the fewest the Tigers managed in their last nine games and almost 100 yards short of their average output.
Here’s a look at the early-season magic number for each AP Top 10 team in 2014—stats that have gotten each team to the top and may be the reason it stays for the long haul.
10. Ole Miss
1 of 10
Magic Number: Eight
The Rebels defense has recorded a whopping eight interceptions through three games in 2014, tying it with Oklahoma, Houston and Boise State for the most in the FBS ranks.
Ole Miss posted 13 total interceptions in 13 games last season, making it only five picks short of the mark with 10 games left to go this year.
Though Ole Miss’ three picks (one for a touchdown) in its 56-15 Week 3 win over Louisiana-Lafayette were impressive, the key performance came in the opener when the Rebels nabbed four interceptions vs. Boise State.
The first pick prevented the Broncos from converting on a third-and-goal at the Ole Miss 3-yard line, and the next three stopped Boise State drives before they got started.
The stops allowed the Rebels offense time to get cranked up and eventually score the 28 fourth-quarter points necessary to ice the Broncos 35-13.
9. Michigan State
2 of 10
Magic Number: 48.3
The Spartans’ 44-13 record since 2010 has been fueled by a smothering defense, not a high-flying offense. Last season’s 13-1 triumph was built on a defense ranked No. 3 in the FBS in scoring versus an offense ranked No. 63 in points.
And this is why the loss of all but four starters on defense presented such a scary outlook for Michigan State coming into 2014.
Speeding forward to now, MSU has engineered a 2-1 start and its highest regular-season AP ranking since 2011 with the No. 48-ranked scoring defense and the No. 6-ranked scoring offense.
The Spartans are averaging 48.3 points per game.
The 73 points Michigan State hung up on Eastern Michigan in Week 4 are the most it’s scored in a single game since 1989 when it beat Northwestern 76-14.
For now, it’s the experienced Spartan offense giving its young defense time to come together.
8. Notre Dame
3 of 10
Magic Number: 99
What’s immediately impressive about Notre Dame’s statistical resume in 2014 is its tie for the No. 1 ranking in turnover margin.
While the plus-eight mark is nothing short of excellent, there is a number that is even better and packs more of a punch in wins and losses.
The Irish have held their first three opponents in 2014 to an average of 99 yards of rushing, including Michigan, which despite its struggles is averaging 211 yards per game on the ground.
How big of a deal is the sub-100 mark in rushing yards?
Well, take a look at average rushing yards allowed versus final record during the Brian Kelly era at Notre Dame: 2010—148.3 rushing yards allowed, 8-5 finish. 2011—138.9 yards, 8-5 finish. 2012—105.7 yards, 12-1 finish. 2013—168 yards, 9-4 finish.
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7. Baylor
4 of 10
Magic Number: 156
The lack of a power-five opponent in 2014 makes Baylor’s statistical resume more difficult to evaluate.
That said, if Bears fans want to hold on to a number that will keep them feeling safe and warm at night, try 156, the average number of yards Baylor has given up through the air this season.
This earns the Bears the No. 14 rank in the nation in pass defense, a promising number for a team that will need a stellar secondary to survive the nine Big 12 opponents left on the schedule.
Baylor’s most impressive performance versus the pass came in Week 3’s 63-21 win over Buffalo, a team that ranks No. 25 in the FBS in passing yards. The Bears held quarterback Joe Licata (No. 28 in yards per game) to 255 yards, the fewest this season.
What finally put Baylor over the top last season—when they went 11-2 and won the Big 12—was a huge improvement defensively.
Take a look at average passing yards allowed versus the Bears’ final record over the last four seasons: 2010—265.1 yards, 7-6 finish. 2011—291.1 yards, 10-3 finish. 2012—323.5 yards, 8-5 finish. 2013—214.9 yards, 11-2 finish.
6. Texas A&M
5 of 10
Magic Number: 67
The reason Texas A&M is 4-0 and ranked No. 6 in the AP instead of 3-1 and No. 24 is its stunning 52-28 win over South Carolina in the opener.
Since the win, which catapulted the Aggies from No. 21 to No. 9 in the AP, A&M has destroyed FCS Lamar (73-3), Rice (38-10) and SMU (58-6).
Though the most obvious stat from the Aggies’ triumph over the Gamecocks is the 511 yards passing, what’s even more impressive is A&M’s defense holding South Carolina to 67 yards of rushing.
Yes, Kenny Hill has seemingly provided a seamless transition from Johnny Manziel, but despite the change, this is an offense we knew was going to be good at passing the ball.
This is true because Kevin Sumlin, whose worst finish in passing offense as a head coach—four seasons at Houston from 2008-11 and two at Texas A&M—is No. 14, his first product in College Station.
What’s a far bigger deal is that an Aggie defense that ranked No. 111 versus the run in 2013 (giving up 222 ground yards per game) held South Carolina to fewer than 70 rushing yards.
It was Texas A&M’s best defensive performance against an FBS foe since holding Northwestern to 52 yards rushing in the 2011 Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas.
5. Auburn
6 of 10
Magic Number: Two
If not for two key interceptions in its 20-14 win at Kansas State, Auburn would not be 3-0 and No. 5 in the latest AP poll.
The interceptions—one coming when K-State had a second-and-goal try from Auburn’s 1-yard line—were an even bigger deal for a secondary that finished last season ranked No. 102 against the pass.
It was the first time the Tigers had two interceptions against a ranked opponent since last season when they picked Johnny Manziel twice to score a 45-41 upset win at No. 7 Texas A&M.
Auburn has registered six interceptions this season, earning it a tie for No. 8 in the FBS and propelling it almost halfway to the total of 13 it posted in 2013.
The Tigers pass defense has struggled since Gus Malzahn took over in 2013, but this deficiency has been counterbalanced by a dramatic increase in interceptions—from only two in 2012 to 13 in 2013 and six thus far this season.
4. Oklahoma
7 of 10
Magic Number: 272
The biggest positive to draw from Oklahoma’s 4-0 start is a passing offense that has averaged 272 yards per game.
Though that may not seem like a huge win, remember that the Sooners dipped to a No. 91 ranking in pass offense last season, averaging only 199.1 yards per game through the air. It was Oklahoma’s worst mark since 2006, when it averaged 191.6.
Included in last year’s low output were 133-yard and 150-yard passing performances in losses to Texas and Baylor. This is a big deal for a program that before last season hadn’t pumped out fewer than 150 yards passing in a game since posting a mere 147 in a 14-13 loss to BYU in 2009.
Oklahoma’s best game through the air against a power-five opponent last season was also its most stunning victory, the 45-31 win over No. 3 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, when the Sooners racked up 348 passing yards.
It was only the second time Oklahoma gained more than 300 yards passing in 2013; it's already done so twice this season, posting 319 against Tulsa and 308 vs. Tennessee.
3. Alabama
8 of 10
Magic Number: 449
The 449 magical passing yards Alabama hung up on Florida in Week 4’s 42-21 win offer two layers of goodness for the Crimson Tide.
First, it’s only the second time since 2000 that a Gator defense has allowed more than 400 yards through the air. The only other came in 2007 when Kentucky racked up 415 yards passing on Florida.
This makes Alabama’s achievement not just impressive, but also historic.
Next up, the 449 yards go a long way in gauging how far the Tide has come in its quarterback transition, key to a title run in the SEC and beyond.
How good were Blake Sims’ 445 passing yards and four touchdowns? They're the most of any quarterback in the Nick Saban era at Alabama.
2. Oregon
9 of 10
Magic Number: 77-69
The Ducks are 4-0 and No. 2 in the AP, despite coughing up 400-plus yards of offense in consecutive games to Michigan State, Wyoming and Washington State.
It’s the first time since 2011—when Arizona, Cal and Arizona State all racked up 460-plus yards vs. the Ducks—that the defense has been so generous.
Oregon is ranked No. 120 out of the 128 FBS teams in opponent long scrimmage plays, already giving up a whopping 69 plays of 10-plus yards. Of these, 21 went for more than 20 yards, 10 went for 30-plus and four went for 40-plus.
The only thing that can beat yards is more yards, which is exactly what the Ducks have done in 2014.
Oregon ranks No. 8 in the nation in long scrimmage plays of its own, with 77 plays of 10-plus yards through four games of play. Of these, 27 went for 20-plus, 13 went for 30-plus, nine went for 40-plus and six went for more than 50 yards.
That’s 77 plays to the good versus 69 to the bad.
So while the Ducks are plenty generous—ranked No. 103 in total defense—they’ve also averaged 555 yards of offense per game this season, No. 9 in the FBS.
1. Florida State
10 of 10
Magic Number: 1-of-3
Florida State is just two missed field goals away from being 2-1, defending its national championship from somewhere in the bottom half of the Top 25.
Clemson kicker Ammon Lakip had two chances to give the Tigers the lead this past Saturday. The first came early in the first quarter with the score tied at zero when Lakip missed a 23-yard chip shot.
The second came on the first play of the fourth quarter when Lakip missed again, this time a 40-yarder that would have given Clemson a 13-10 lead.
If he would have converted on either, overtime would have been unnecessary, and Florida State would have paid a huge price for extending quarterback Jameis Winston’s half-game suspension to four quarters.
Lakip was 3-of-4 on field-goal attempts coming into the game, the only miss coming on a 34-yard attempt in the Georgia game.
He replaced senior kicker Chandler Catanzaro, who was 13-of-14 in field-goal attempts last season, earning him the No. 7 rank in the FBS with a 92.9 percent success rate.
Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com and Sports-Reference.com/CFB.
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